NCAA tourney picks: A Big 12 team will win it all. Will UK or U of L go further?
Predicting the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:
Final Four
• Duke. In spite of injuries that have sidelined starters Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster, Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils will still have enough to outlast No. 3 seed Michigan State in the East Region finals.
• Houston. Playing the South Region finals in their hometown, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars will avenge their 2025 NCAA title game loss to Florida.
• Arizona. Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd, the longtime former Gonzaga assistant, will beat Mark Few and the Zags in the round of eight to return Arizona to the Final Four for the first time since 2001.
• Iowa State. T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones are an elite team flying below the radar and are going to oust an injury-weakened Michigan in the Midwest Region finals.
National champion
• Arizona defeats Houston. Of the No. 1 seeds, Arizona enters the NCAA Tournament with the best combination of positive momentum and relative good health.
Kentucky teams
• Kentucky. The Wildcats, the No. 7 seed in the Midwest, will fall to No. 10 seed Santa Clara in the round of 64.
• Louisville. The Cardinals, the No. 6 seed in the East, will fall to No. 11 seed South Florida in the round of 64.
Upset specials
• No. 13 seed Troy will upset No. 4 seed Nebraska in the South Region.
• No. 11 seed VCU will oust No. 6 seed North Carolina in the South Region.
• No. 12 seed High Point will upset No. 5 seed Wisconsin in the West Region.
• No. 12 seed Akron will stun No. 5 seed Texas Tech in the Midwest Region.
Bracket breakdown
• If you average the NET rankings for the top four seeds in each regional, the South is the toughest region, followed, in order, by the West, the Midwest and the East.
• It has become accepted wisdom that the teams most likely to win the national championship can be found from among those ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Ratings on Selection Sunday.
This season, there are five such teams: Duke (No. 4 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency); Arizona (No. 5, No. 3), Michigan (No. 8, No. 1), Florida (No. 9, No. 6) and Houston (No. 14, No. 5).
Iowa State (No. 21, No. 4) just missed.
• According to the CBS broadcast, the first four teams out of the field of 68 were, in order, Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State and Indiana.
• For the second straight year, the SEC is the conference with the most teams in the field. Where the Southeastern Conference had 14 teams in the NCAA tourney in 2025, it settled for 10 this year.
The SEC was followed by the Big Ten (nine teams), the ACC and Big 12 (eight each), the Big East and the West Coast Conference (three each) and the Atlantic 10 and the Mid-American Conference (two each).
• A No. 1 seed has won seven of the past eight men’s NCAA tourney titles. No. 4 seed Connecticut in 2023 is the exception.
