This is what the early projections say of Kentucky’s chances to advance in NCAAs
It’s been a difficult season for the Kentucky men’s basketball team, and things won’t get any easier once the NCAA Tournament begins later this week.
It could be a short stay in March Madness for the Cats, who earned a 7 seed in the 68-team field with their uneven play over the course of the season. Mark Pope’s team was matched up with 10-seeded Santa Clara in the first round — 12:15 p.m. ET Friday in St. Louis — and the Broncos won’t be pushovers.
Coached by Herb Sendek — a UK assistant for the first half of the Rick Pitino era more than three decades ago — Santa Clara is a highly potent offensive team (23rd nationally in efficiency) that can beat you on the boards (top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding rate), features several capable 3-point shooters and a sixth man (freshman Allen Graves) who’s viewed as a legitimate NBA draft prospect.
The Broncos also have a defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally and has excelled at forcing turnovers.
So, it won’t be easy for the Cats, who would most likely see 2-seeded Iowa State in the round of 32 on Sunday if they can get past Santa Clara in game one.
Now that Selection Sunday has passed and the bracket is set, here’s an early look at what some of the top predictive websites — and some other prominent college basketball outlets — say about Kentucky’s chances to advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky vs. Santa Clara predictions
- KenPom, which has UK at No. 28 nationally going into this week, is giving the Cats a 55% chance to beat Santa Clara on Friday, projecting a final score of 81-79 in UK’s favor. Not exactly the blowout that many Kentucky fans were expecting to get in round one back when this 2025-26 season began.
- The Torvik ratings have the Cats as the No. 31 team in college basketball going into the week — two spots lower than Santa Clara at 29th nationally. As such, Torvik is predicting that the Broncos will end Kentucky’s season Friday afternoon, giving Santa Clara a 51% chance of victory with a projected final score of 81-80.
- College basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa, the founder of EvanMiya.com, has Kentucky faring better in game one. That website projects an 81-78 victory for the Cats, who have a 62% chance of winning, according to its model. Miyakawa’s projections give UK only a 13.6% chance of advancing to the Sweet 16, however, with just a 0.6% chance of making it to the Final Four.
- The matchup predictor at ESPN is even more bullish on Kentucky’s chances of winning at least one game this week. That one has the Cats with a 72.2% likelihood of beating the Broncos in the first round, projecting a six-point victory. UK is 23rd in ESPN’s BPI rankings going into the tournament. Santa Clara is 49th on that list.
- The early line at DraftKings opened with Kentucky as a 3.5-point favorite over Santa Clara, and that number had increased to 4.5 points by Monday morning. DraftKings had Kentucky as a +550 shot (the equivalent of 11-2 odds) of making it past the first week of the tournament and into the Sweet 16. Iowa State is the heavy favorite (-400 odds) to advance out of UK’s pod. DraftKings had the Cats as 45-1 shots to make it to the Final Four, as of Monday morning. Their odds to win the national title were set at 200-1.
- CBS Sports lead college basketball writer Matt Norlander ranked Kentucky as the No. 26 team in the field and had Santa Clara at No. 39, but — while co-hosting a CBS studio show breaking down the bracket Sunday night — Norlander predicted that the Broncos would win Friday’s game. Former Alabama coach Avery Johnson was also on that panel. “I like Santa Clara,” he said. “Kentucky, if you look at their body of work this year, how many times have they been down by double digits? A lot.” Johnson also noted that Kentucky “has as much pressure as any team” in the first round, based on the amount of money allocated for its roster this season.
- Over at ESPN.com, national college basketball analyst Jeff Borzello shared his entire bracket, which has Kentucky beating Santa Clara 79-75 before losing to 2-seeded Iowa State by a score of 79-69 in the second round. Borzello predicted that Iowa State would fall to top-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight, with the Wolverines advancing out of the Midwest Region and into the Final Four.
- And as of Monday morning, the “People’s Bracket” from ESPN — a composite of predictions by fans who have already filled out their brackets — showed that 70% picked Kentucky to beat Santa Clara in the first round. In a hypothetical matchup between UK and Iowa State in the second round, however, only 18% of ESPN users had the Cats beating the Cyclones.
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