Here’s what the experts say about Kentucky’s chances to make a March Madness run
That path forward for Mark Pope and his Kentucky basketball team is a daunting one.
The Cats go into the 2026 NCAA Tournament as a 7 seed, and that means they’ll have to win a virtual toss-up game in round one and, most likely, pull off what would amount to a sizable upset in round two just to make it to the second week of March Madness.
It starts with 10-seeded Santa Clara at 12:15 p.m. ET Friday in a nationally televised game on CBS. If UK can win that one, it would almost certainly face 2-seeded Iowa State in the round of 32 on Sunday. The Cyclones have 15-seeded Tennessee State in the first round Friday, and they are heavy favorites to advance.
All of these games will be played in St. Louis, and Kentucky is not expected to get out of the weekend with its season still alive.
The Herald-Leader asked several prominent college basketball reporters from around the country for their predictions on how far the Cats would advance in the NCAA Tournament bracket. No one is envisioning a long stay for Pope’s team.
“I picked the Cats to get upset by Santa Clara in the first round,” said Brendan Marks of The Athletic. “I could see UK winning one game, but I’d be quite surprised if Mark Pope’s team makes the second weekend. Just a disaster of a second season. Meanwhile, the guy Kentucky ran out of town just won the SEC Tournament. Everything’s fine in Lexington!”
The last sentence was sarcasm, obviously, and the one before that was a reference to John Calipari, who just led Arkansas to the league tournament title Sunday and enters NCAA Tournament play as a 4 seed.
Pope’s first UK team did advance to the Sweet 16 last season, the first time in six years that Kentucky made it out of the first week of the NCAA Tournament, something that Calipari failed to do in his final four years on the job. (Calipari also took Arkansas to the Sweet 16 last season.)
The Athletic’s Lindsay Schnell was the only expert on the Herald-Leader’s panel who picked the Cats to make it to the Final Four last year, when they were a 3 seed. She’s not nearly as bullish on UK this time around, though that has more to do with Santa Clara than the Cats.
“Without realizing it, we’re going on two years in a row here where I seem to be feast or famine with Kentucky,” Schnell said. “This year it’s more about who they drew: I joked to some friends during the WCC Tournament that Santa Clara could match up with Florida and I’d pick the Broncos. I love them!”
Santa Clara (26-8) made the WCC finals, losing 79-68 to Gonzaga in that one last week.
Joe Rexrode, also of The Athletic, is predicting a short stay in St. Louis for Kentucky, too.
“The Cats are certainly good enough to make the second weekend, but I’m envisioning a loss to Santa Clara, and a long, critical offseason for Mark Pope as Kentucky fans rightfully wonder if he’s up to the lofty standards of this job,” he said.
Pope’s job status beyond next season has been a topic of conversation over the past couple of months, though he’s under contract through 2030, and he hasn’t even completed his second year as UK’s head coach. He has a 45-25 overall record at Kentucky entering the NCAA Tournament.
“It’s just been such a weird season filled with high expectations that haven’t been met for a variety of reasons, among them injuries, and I won’t be surprised at all if it ends with a loss to the third-place team from the West Coast Conference,” said CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish, who also picked Santa Clara to beat UK. “Could Kentucky flip the script and make a run? Sure! NC State did it a few years ago. Out-of-nowhere runs happen in this event. But, candidly, I’m not expecting it. And I guess that’ll probably make Year 3 for Mark Pope at Kentucky very interesting, obviously.”
Parrish’s colleague at CBS and “Eye On College Basketball” podcast co-host Matt Norlander also picked the Broncos.
“I have no idea how this game is going to play out,” Norlander said. “I truly could see a UK win by 18 or Santa Clara by 14. The Broncos are really well coached, and Kentucky can’t get out to, like, a 24-13 deficit in a tournament game. Big trouble if so. But I think it’s a 50-50 on who wins. My most intriguing game of the first round.”
It’s an intriguing game featuring a Kentucky team that has befuddled observers all season long.
“I actually picked Kentucky to lose their first-round game, because I just don’t know what to expect any longer,” said Mike DeCourcy, national writer for The Sporting News. “But the best version of Kentucky can defeat Santa Clara and can give a terrific Iowa State team a game. We saw them do it multiple times with Florida. Can the Cats win that one?
“Hey, if they do, there might be good news in the Sweet 16. Because I have Tennessee taking out Virginia. There are no guarantees, but we know that’s a game Kentucky can not only play well, but win.”
If Kentucky can get out of the first weekend, it would most likely see 3-seeded Virginia or 6-seeded Tennessee in the Sweet 16 in Chicago. The Cats swept the regular season series with the Vols.
But making it through the first two rounds in St. Louis will be a tall task.
More Kentucky basketball predictions
Other experts reached by the Herald-Leader like UK’s chances Friday.
“Some people are picking Santa Clara over Kentucky as an upset special, but not me,” said Chris Dortch, longtime editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook. “I think Kentucky will win. But the road will end in the round of 32 against Iowa State.”
Dortch added that this UK team was “never able to realize its full potential” due to the injuries to point guard Jaland Lowe, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury, and projected NBA lottery pick Jayden Quaintance, who played in just four games after a return from major knee surgery and has not competed for the Cats since early January.
Starting wing Kam Williams also missed nearly two months of the conference schedule with a broken foot, but he returned to the court in the SEC Tournament.
“Kentucky will have its hands full with Santa Clara,” said Field of 68’s Jeff Goodman. “Talented. Have a future NBA guy in Allen Graves. Herb Sendek can really coach. That said, I think UK wins the first one before losing to a disciplined Iowa State team with three studs: Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic. One of the best two-way point guards, one of the most versatile forwards and the best shooter in the country. And a Top 10 coach in T.J. Otzelberger.”
The Cyclones (27-7) are No. 6 nationally in the KenPom ratings going into the tournament.
“You make your bed in the regular season, and now Kentucky will have to lie in it,” said Isaac Trotter of CBS Sports. “Getting to the second weekend out of the 7-seed line will be a chore, but I do like the schematic edges that the Cats will have in their first-round matchup against Santa Clara. The Broncos’ transition defense has been a major weakness this year, and that’s where Kentucky is at its absolute best. Santa Clara is good, but Kentucky is better, older and a bit more proven on this stage.
“That potential second-round matchup against Iowa State seems ominous on paper. Iowa State’s trap-heavy scheme against a Kentucky group that has struggled to problem-solve on the fly could be a real challenge. Kentucky can hang around against the Cyclones, but it will need to play its best 80 minutes of the season to advance into the second weekend. I think UK wins one, loses the next and portal season begins.”
Jim Meehan, who covers Gonzaga for the Spokesman-Review in Spokane, Washington, is in the unique spot of having seen both UK and Santa Clara play this season.
The Zags beat Kentucky by 35 points in Nashville back in December, a game every UK fan would like to forget. Gonzaga also defeated Santa Clara three times this season, with those victories coming by 12, eight and 11 points. (That adds up to 31, it’s worth noting.)
Meehan noted that Santa Clara actually led the Zags by four points at halftime of their third and most recent matchup. In that one, the Broncos grabbed 20 offensive rebounds — one of their strengths — and scored 24 second-chance points, but they lost fast-break points by a tally of 27-0, perhaps an area where a Kentucky team that loves to get in transition can find an edge.
“The Broncos have quality offensive weapons in guard Christian Hammond, freshman forward Allen Graves and forward Elijah Mahi,” Meehan said. “They will test Kentucky’s defense, but I can see the Cats creating problems for Santa Clara’s defense. Kentucky wins a close one, 79-75, before falling in the second round to Iowa State.”
No one on our panel sees the Cats going any further than that, including the outside expert who’s seen them play the most this season.
ESPN broadcaster Tom Hart, a regular on SEC Network calls for Kentucky games, predicted that Pope’s team would overwhelm Santa Clara with its speed and athleticism Friday.
“But Iowa State is a tough draw,” he said. “The Cyclones are an elite defense that thrives on creating turnovers, which is a weakness for this UK backcourt in big moments.”
Hart cited the second half of the 75-74 loss to Auburn as evidence. He did leave a glimmer of hope for Kentucky fans, however. It’s been a difficult season to figure out, after all.
“This team is unpredictable, so a run into the second weekend wouldn’t surprise me,” Hart said. “At this point, nothing will.”
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