How Kentucky matches up vs. Santa Clara in NCAA tourney — with a game prediction
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Santa Clara’s frontcourt depth and position advantages give Broncos edge.
- Kentucky leans on Oweh and Aberdeen for scoring and playmaking.
- Projection: Santa Clara 86, Kentucky 85 — a one-point, close call.
How No. 7 seed Kentucky (21-13, 10-8 SEC) and No. 10 seed Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 WCC) match up at each position for Friday’s men’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Region round of 64 contest in St. Louis — with a game prediction:
Small forward
•Kentucky’s Collin Chandler (9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 44.5% 3-pointers) shot only 36.4% (4 of 11) on 3-pointers in UK’s three games in the SEC Tournament. Over the Cats’ past five games, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound sophomore from Farmington, Utah, has shot only 26.3% (5 of 19) on treys. Last season, Chandler played well in the NCAA Tournament in a reserve role, making 5 of 8 3-point shots and averaging 6 points in Kentucky’s three March Madness contests.
•Santa Clara’s Elijah Mahi (13.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals) had a rough go in the Broncos’ 79-68 loss to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game. The 6-7, 220-pound senior from Toronto, Ontario, Canada, made only 3 of 11 shots in the loss to the Zags and finished with seven points, five rebounds, an assist, three steals and two turnovers. Mahi was much better in Santa Clara’s 76-71 win over St. Mary’s in the WCC tourney semifinals, scoring 19 points on 9-of-16 shooting and claiming seven rebounds.
Advantage: Santa Clara
Power forward
•Kentucky sophomore Andrija Jelavic (5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 48% FGs) struggled in UK’s 71-63 loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. The 6-11, 225-pound sophomore from Zagreb, Croatia, made only 1 of 6 shots vs. the Gators and missed all four of his 3-point attempts en route to scoring two points. In Kentucky’s wins over LSU and Missouri to open the SEC tourney, Jelavic shot a combined 6 of 10.
•Santa Clara’s Jake Ensminger (6.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 53.6% FGs) is a low-volume, high-percentage shooter. Over the Broncos’ past 13 games, the 6-9, 215-pound redshirt junior from Ulm, Germany, has made a combined 33 of 51 shots, a cool 64.7%. However, Ensminger has only scored in double figures in four games this season.
Advantage: Santa Clara
Center
•Kentucky freshman Malachi Moreno (8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, 58.3% FGs) enters the NCAA Tournament on a five-game streak of not scoring in double figures. The 7-foot, 250-pound product of Great Crossing High School in Georgetown took only eight total shots in UK’s three SEC tourney games, making four of them.
•Santa Clara’s Bukky Oboye (8 points, 4.2 rebounds, team-high 39 blocks, 66.5% FGs) had eight points and four rebounds in 14 minutes in the WCC tourney finals loss to Gonzaga. A 7-1, 220-pound redshirt sophomore from Houston, Oboye has scored in double figures 11 times this season.
Advantage: Kentucky
Shooting guard
•Kentucky senior Otega Oweh (18.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.8 steals, 46.3% FGs) had an off day in UK’s SEC tourney loss to Florida. The 6-4, 220-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, made only 5 of 18 shots and finished with 10 points and four turnovers. Oweh played well in last season’s NCAA tourney, making 51.4% of his shots (19 of 37) and averaging 16 points and 5.3 rebounds in UK’s three March Madness games.
•Santa Clara’s Christian Hammond (team-best 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 49% FGs) was terrific in the WCC finals loss to Gonzaga. The 6-4, 195-pound redshirt sophomore from Denver made 9 of 16 shots and dropped 24 points on the Zags. In the Broncos’ three losses to Gonzaga this season, Hammond averaged 18 points.
Advantage: Kentucky
Point guard
•Kentucky senior Denzel Aberdeen (13.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 35.1% treys) averaged 16.3 points and 4.3 assists in UK’s three SEC tourney games. The 6-5, 195-pound product of Orlando, Florida, has 41 assists vs. seven turnovers over the past nine games. Aberdeen returns to the NCAA Tournament after averaging six points in six games last season as the top backcourt reserve on Florida’s 2025 national championship team.
•Santa Clara’s Brenton Knapper (7.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 39.3% FGs) poured in 19 points in the Broncos’ 93-72 win over Oregon State in the regular-season finale Feb. 28. However, the 6-foot, 175-pound redshirt senior from Charleston, West Virginia, made only 2 of 12 shots and scored a total of five points in the WCC Tournament.
Advantage: Kentucky
Bench
•Kentucky junior power forward Mouhamed Dioubate (8.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 53% FGs) made 12 of 18 shots and averaged 10 points a game in the SEC Tournament. ... Junior center Brandon Garrison (4.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 54.7% FGs) turned in one of his best games as a Wildcat in UK’s 87-82 win over LSU in the SEC tourney first round. The 6-10, 245-pound Oklahoma City product hit 7 of 9 shots, 2 of 3 treys, and finished with 17 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals and two blocks. ... Freshman guard Jasper Johnson (5.2 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists) played only 20 total minutes in the SEC tourney and made 3 of his 8 field-goal tries. ... After being sidelined since Jan. 21 due to a broken foot, sophomore wing Kam Williams (6.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 34.7% treys) returned in the SEC Tournament. In UK’s three games, the 6-8, 205-pound product of Lafayette, Louisiana, played a combined 37 minutes and shot 2 of 6 on 3-pointers.
•Santa Clara’s Allen Graves (11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2 steals 51.7% FGs) is projected to be a first-round selection in the 2026 NBA draft by SI.com. The 6-9, 225-pound redshirt freshman from Ponchatoula, Louisiana, had 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in the WCC tourney finals loss to Gonzaga. ... A transfer from Villanova, Sash Gavalyugov (8.8 points, 1.7 rebounds, 35.8% treys) is capable of offensive explosions. The 6-3, 175-pound redshirt freshman from Bulgaria had 37 points against Loyola Marymount, 21 against Seattle and poured in 23 vs. Saint Mary’s in the WCC tourney semifinals. ... A 6-8, 210-pound junior, Thierry Darlan (6.3 points, 3.6rebounds, 39% FGs) is 5 of 15 on 3-point shots over the past five games. ... A 6-5, 195-pound freshman, KJ Cochran (4.8 points, 1.4 rebounds, 43.3% FGs) has seven double-figure scoring games this season.
Advantage: Santa Clara
Trends and history
•Kentucky leads the all-time series with Santa Clara 1-0.
•As BYU coach (2019-24), UK head man Mark Pope went 1-3 head-to-head against Santa Clara and coach Herb Sendek.
•Kentucky is making its 63rd appearance in the men’s NCAA Tournament. The Cats are 132-56 all-time in March Madness.
•Santa Clara is making its 12th all-time NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 1996. The Broncos are 11-13 all-time in the NCAA tourney.
•No. 7 seeds are 13-7 vs. No. 10 seeds over the past five NCAA Tournaments. Last year, No. 7s went 2-2 vs. No. 10s.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
Santa Clara 86, Kentucky 85
This story was originally published March 19, 2026 at 6:00 AM.
