This is what the early projections say of Kentucky’s chances to beat Iowa State
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Predictive sites give Kentucky about a 22–30% chance (KenPom 25%, Torvik 22%).
- Iowa State favored ~3–7.5 points; Jefferson’s ankle could shift odds.
- Public and betting markets heavily favor Cyclones; majority back Iowa State.
Kentucky’s first NCAA Tournament game was quite the show.
The Cats’ second matchup in this edition of March Madness will be a difficult one.
Otega Oweh had a career day Friday — and hit a buzzer-beater that won’t soon be forgotten in UK basketball circles — to lead the Cats past Santa Clara and into the second round of the NCAA Tournament in St. Louis.
That means a date with Iowa State at 2:45 p.m. ET Sunday at the Enterprise Center, and the winner of that one will be moving on to the Sweet 16.
All the early projections see an uphill battle for the Cats, who will face a Cyclones team that earned the 2 seed in the Midwest Region and has been a popular pick to advance through this quadrant of the bracket and make it all the way to the Final Four.
It will have to get past Kentucky first, and Mark Pope’s squad will be riding a wave of momentum into Sunday’s game. Iowa State has been viewed as one of the top teams in the country all season long, though, and the Cyclones will be the favorite in this one.
One aspect of this matchup to watch: Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson, an All-American this season, suffered a sprained ankle early in the team’s 108-74 win over 15-seeded Tennessee State on Friday. Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger said Saturday that Jefferson “appears unlikely” to play against the Cats on Sunday.
With that in mind, here’s an early look at what some of the top predictive websites say about UK’s chances to beat the Cyclones and advance to the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State predictions
- KenPom is giving Kentucky a 25% chance to beat Iowa State, which that site ranks as the No. 6 overall team in college basketball. The KenPom projections have the Cyclones beating the Cats 77-70 in St. Louis on Sunday. The website also ranks Iowa State at No. 5 nationally in defensive efficiency and inside the top 20 on the offensive side of the ball.
- The Torvik ratings have the Cats as the No. 29 team in college basketball — up two spots from Selection Sunday — going into the matchup against Iowa State, which is No. 7 in those rankings. That site predicts a 78-70 final score in favor of the Cyclones and gives Pope’s team just a 22% chance at victory. Worth noting: Iowa State ranks seventh nationally with a 38.9% rate from 3-point range going into this one. Milan Momcilovic is the top 3-point shooter in the country at 49.6%.
- College basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa, the founder of EvanMiya.com, had Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite over Kentucky in his initial projection. But Miyakawa said Friday night that if Jefferson is unable to play for the Cyclones, they would drop to 3-point favorites. Miyakawa’s player ranking model has Jefferson as the No. 5 performer in college basketball, behind only Duke’s Cameron Boozer, Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, Purdue’s Braden Smith and Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr.
- The matchup predictor at ESPN was posted Saturday afternoon and gives Kentucky a 29.5% chance to beat the Cyclones in the round of 32 game. Also at ESPN, national writer Myron Medcalf ranked the 32 teams remaining in the tournament going into the weekend, and he had Iowa State at No. 6 overall, while acknowledging that the Cyclones will be a “different team” with a lesser chance of advancing far in the field without Jefferson. Medcalf had UK at No. 20 on his list.
- As of Friday night, DraftKings had the Cyclones as 5.5-point favorites, with 74% of the early bettors picking Iowa State to beat Kentucky at that line. The betting service pegged UK as a +180 underdog in the game, meaning a bet of $10 on the Cats would bring a profit of $18 (for a total return of $28) if they were to win. Only 21% of the early bettors were picking Kentucky to win at that price.
- The initial numbers at DRatings.com, another sports predictions website that offers betting analysis, gave Iowa State a 70.1% chance to win. The projections at that site had the Cyclones beating the Cats 81-75 in Sunday’s game.
- And the “People’s Bracket” at ESPN — a composite of predictions by fans who filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket — says that 83% of those who had a Kentucky-Iowa State matchup in the second round picked the Cyclones to beat the Cats and advance to the Sweet 16. (In the first round, 69% picked UK to beat Santa Clara.)
This story was originally published March 21, 2026 at 6:30 AM.
