How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction

How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

Kentucky’s Stephen Johnson II had mixed results in UK’s victory over Vanderbilt. The 6-foot-2, 183-pound junior made some drive-extending runs (55 yards on 10 carries) but struggled through the air (10-of-24 for only 49 yards with one interception). He’ll have to throw better for the Cats to become bowl eligible. In the unenviable task of succeeding Dak Prescott, Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald has held his own. The 6-5, 230-pound sophomore leads the Bulldogs in rushing (431 yards) and has thrown for 998 yards with eight TDs vs. four picks. Over the past two games, Fitzgerald’s passing accuracy (34-of-70) has wavered, however.

Advantage: Mississippi State

Running backs

Kentucky true freshman Benny Snell (94 yards, 20 carries) was “the closer” for UK on a time-consuming, fourth-quarter drive that helped seal the win over Vandy. UK standout Boom Williams ran for 59 yards on only nine carries vs. Vanderbilt — but never returned after losing a fumble that became a Vandy scoop-and-score on Kentucky’s first drive of the third quarter. Will be interesting to see how the 5-9, 196-pound junior responds this week. Mississippi State’s Brandon Holloway (208 yards rushing on season) missed the loss at BYU with an injury and Dan Mullen said Monday he “was not feeling confident” about Holloway’s return. In Holloway’s absence, sophomore Aeris Williams ran for 82 yards vs. BYU.

Advantage: Kentucky

Wide receivers

Garrett Johnson (19 catches), Jeff Badet (10) and Ryan Timmons (seven) are the three UK wideouts with the most catches so far in 2016. Dorian Baker, still looking for his first catch after battling a lingering hamstring problem, had seven receptions at Mississippi State last year. MSU’s Fred Ross (34 catches, 386 yards, five TDs) needs two catches Saturday to become the Bulldogs’ all-time career receptions leader (with 162). The 6-2, 205-pound senior also needs 3 yards receiving to go over 1,000 for his career. Junior Donald Gray (20 catches, 275 yards, one TD) has emerged as a capable complement to Ross.

Advantage: Mississippi State

Tight ends

Kentucky sophomore C.J. Conrad is second on the team in receptions (12 for 169 yards) and first in TD catches (three), but did most of his damage against New Mexico State (five catches, 133 yards, three TDs). Backup Greg Hart also had two of his three receptions in 2016 vs. NMSU. Mississippi State’s Jordan Thomas (six catches, one TD), Farrod Green (four catches, one TD) and Justin Johnson (three catches) are a solid unit.

Advantage: Kentucky

Offensive line

Kentucky’s Jervontius “Bunchy” Stallings is set to make his third start at right guard after wresting the position away from Ramsey Meyers. With the return of injured left tackle Cole Mosier, UK has been rotating nine offensive linemen. Mississippi State right guard Deion Calhoun suffered an apparent sprained ankle at BYU and is “questionable” for this week. Backup Michael Story replaced Calhoun vs BYU.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive line

The emergence of junior-college transfer Naquez Pringle at nose guard (five tackles vs. Vandy) has helped solidify Kentucky’s run defense. Rush end Denzil Ware (seven tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks) is increasingly a disruptor for UK off the edge. Mississippi State senior end A.J. Jefferson is third in the SEC in TFL (10). Senior nose tackle Nelson Adams has played in 44 career games and has two QB sacks this season.

Advantage: Mississippi State

Linebackers

UK sophomore SLB Josh Allen (two sacks vs. Vandy) is an improving player now among the SEC leaders in tackles (tied for 42nd with 32), sacks (10th with 4.5) and TFL (15th with 5.5). WLB Jordan Jones is third in the SEC in tackles (56). Mississippi State MLB Richie Brown is tied for fifth in the SEC in tackles (51). WLB Leo Lewis leads all SEC freshmen with 43 tackles after recording 12 stops at BYU.

Advantage: Mississippi State

Defensive backs

Kentucky coaches have been effusive in their praise of sophomore strong safety Mike Edwards, who is tied for fifth in the SEC in tackles (51) and is fifth in passes defended (eight). “You’ve heard me say every week ... how impressed I am with Mike,” Mark Stoops said Monday. Sophomore CB Derrick Baity (23 tackles, two interceptions, three pass breakups) is having a solid season. Mississippi State has given up more TD passes (13) than any team in the SEC. Free safety Kivon Coman missed the BYU game with an injury and is questionable for UK. His replacement, sophomore Mark McLaurin, had an interception last week.

Advantage: Kentucky

Special teams

Kentucky ranks ahead of Mississippi State in the SEC statistics in kickoff returns (fifth to 12th), kickoff coverage (fifth to eighth), punting (ninth to 12th) and punt return average (third to 13th). UK place-kicker Austin MacGinnis is 5-of-6 on field goals with a long of 46; Mississippi State’s Westin Graves is 8-of-12 with a long of 48.

Advantage: Kentucky

Prediction

Kentucky 23, Mississippi State 21

This story was originally published October 21, 2016 at 12:46 PM with the headline "How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction."