Missouri at Kentucky predictions: Weather, QB decision major factors again.
It’s almost football time again in the bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Missouri could play out come Saturday:
Live with Lynn
My hunch is that for the third straight week, Lynn Bowden is the Wildcats’ starting quarterback. I’m done predicting that Sawyer Smith will see the field until he actually, you know, does.
Other than the coaching staff’s insistence that he’s ready to go and him continually warming up on the sidelines, we’ve been presented with no evidence that Smith is actually ready to be on the field again. He’s been unavailable to the media each of the past two weeks, for what that’s worth. There’s also this nugget from co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Darrin Hinshaw from earlier in the week.
“There’s no doubt Lynn was electric on the field when he did get loose,” Hinshaw told reporters Tuesday. “He made safeties miss, that’s what he’s going to have to do this week and continue to run that rock.”
Sure, Hinshaw could just be putting that out there to distract Missouri, but his comments sounded pretty straight. If Bowden got hurt, Smith would probably go out there, ready or not. For both their sakes, let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Running room
Missouri among Southeastern Conference teams is second only to Georgia in fewest total yards allowed. It’s stingier through the air than the Bulldogs — 156.1 yards per game to Georgia’s 181 — but a few ticks worse against the run at 114 yards per game, fourth best in the league.
Kentucky never got anything going through the air against Georgia but on the ground managed 160 yards, the most an opponent has put up against the Bulldogs in 2019. Between Bowden and a talented trio of running backs — or, if Kavosiey Smoke can’t go, a formidable duo in A.J. Rose and Chris Rodriguez — it’d be silly to disrespect the Wildcats’ ability to get something going against the Tigers.
Bowden could prove to be particularly lethal: Mizzou in its games at Wyoming (a 38-31 loss to open the year) and against Mississippi (a 38-27 win), the Tigers faced dual-threat quarterbacks, both of whom were below average against their secondary but ran all over the field. Sean Chambers went for 120 yards on 12 carries for the Cowboys, muting a 400-yard passing game from Mizzou’s Kelly Bryant, while John Rhys Plumlee piled up 143 yards on 23 carries for the Rebels.
Neither Chambers (16) nor Plumlee (17) attempted 20 passes in their respective contests. Bowden is more of a wild card than either, and that might be just what the doctor ordered for Kentucky, offensively.
Defensive principals
Cale Garrett, Missouri’s star linebacker, isn’t expected to return this season after undergoing surgery for a pectoral tear this month. Nick Bolton, a sophomore, has emerged for the linebacking corps — he has two interceptions and 42 total tackles, second in the SEC.
Kentucky’s secondary was the team’s biggest concern coming into the year due to how much needed to be replaced. They’ve experienced growing pains but seemingly have come together, although opponents’ willingness to stick to the ground against the Cats could be masking some of their inefficiencies. Still, when there are plays to be made, guys out there are making them — Yusuf Corker chief among them. He leads the team with 35 tackles, fourth in the conference.
The team whose defensive standout has the best night will emerge victorious. If Kentucky can stop Missouri frequently at the line of scrimmage, a “big night” for Corker would feature fewer tackles than the five per game he’s averaged so far. If weather conditions end up being similar to those in Georgia last weekend, this could be another game where field position is the biggest factor.
Final score
Missouri 24, Kentucky 20: The rain, if present, won’t prevent Kelly Bryant from pushing the ball down field, as he’s capable of making it happen with his legs if necessary. Georgia was content to play the Cats’ slow-down, drag-it-out game because it’s kind of Kentucky, but better. Mizzou will want to ramp up the pace but has a running back in Larry Rountree III on whom it can rely if things grind to a halt. UK, in my opinion, isn’t 10 points worse than Missouri, but between the Vegas outlook and the hangovers that have followed every Georgia game under Mark Stoops, it’s tough to pick the Cats to extend their win streak to five straight against the East Division’s newest member.
This story was originally published October 25, 2019 at 9:25 AM.
