Kentucky at Vanderbilt predictions: The Wildcats are better. Will they prove it?
It’s almost time for Kentucky to square off with Vanderbilt down in Nashville. Here are some final thoughts on how the game could play out on Saturday:
Another dimension?
UK head coach Mark Stoops immediately following the Cats’ loss to Tennessee and into this week recognized how one dimensional his team has become on offense. Kentucky’s offense is more reliant on the run than all but a handful of Southeastern Conference teams, but at least it has something to rely on.
Vanderbilt doesn’t. The Commodores have rushed for a league-worst 118.1 yards per game and, while their passing average is better than the pass-averse Cats, that’s it: they’ve thrown for 178.6 yards per game (Kentucky, which hasn’t hit triple-digit passing since its trip to Mississippi State, is averaging 139.7 yards). Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a preseason All-SEC selection and Vandy’s top asset in the run game, ranks 16th in rushing average after leading the league a year ago. For some perspective, Kentucky has two guys in the top 10 (Lynn Bowden, No. 1, and Kavosiey Smoke, No. 10) and another on Vaughn’s tail (A.J. Rose, who’s 20th overall).
If Kentucky can keep Vaughn in check it should be able to contain whichever quarterback the Commodores trot out. Riley Neal, who started seven of the ‘Dores’ first nine games, is back after suffering a concussion and will start against UK. He’s 109 of 186 for 1,193 yards and six touchdowns with four interceptions; four other Vandy quarterbacks have combined for 48 completions on 109 attempts and thrown only one TD to five interceptions.
UK ought to be able to get something going with its own passing game, too: Vanderbilt is giving up 268.8 yards per game through the air; only Mississippi (274.2) is worse in the SEC. Kentucky, on the flip side, gives up just 184.1 passing yards a game, sandwiching it between Missouri and Georgia in the league’s top three.
Redshirt warriors
Assuming Kentucky is able to find offensive footing in Nashville similar to that it found against Missouri a few weeks ago, it should set the coaching staff up to put some true freshmen on the field who so far haven’t played much, or at all.
Amani Gilmore would be the most intriguing. A former three-star quarterback prospect who was also a baseball star in Louisiana, Gilmore has reportedly made major progress since the end of September, when he was basically considered a non-option to start as his position. Barring a significant string of catastrophes, he’s still not going to be thrust into that role, but UK plans to bring Gilmore to Nashville and would benefit him and itself by getting him some live, late-game reps under center if a Cats victory seems imminent.
Former Butler High School standout Tae Tae Crumes is one of two receivers in the freshman class. The other, DeMarcus Harris, played in Kentucky’s first two games but Crumes has yet to make an appearance. That has as much to do with depth as anything — even with Bowden playing out of position and injuries sidelining other lead guys recently, the receiver position doesn’t lack for strong route-runners. Still, they and true freshman running back Travis Tisdale — the only other offensive skill player in the class — could see time soon since they have some redshirt-rule games to play around with.
Next week’s game against FCS foe Tennessee Martin could (should) present an opportunity for youngsters on both sides of the ball to get some run, but it’d be great to give them a little taste on the road. And, if the stands are filled with more blue than black-and-gold, it’d be an additional treat for fans who make the trip.
Final score
Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 3: A win virtually guarantees a fourth consecutive bowl trip for UK; a loss puts its season on the brink. The Commodores (2-7) have nothing left but pride to play for, and there’s something to be said for that as a point around which to rally, but my guess is Vandy’s high-mark of 2019 happened a month ago when it surprised Missouri with its first SEC loss. That had better be true, for the Wildcats’ sake.
This story was originally published November 15, 2019 at 6:55 AM.
