Kentucky vs. UT Martin predictions: UK won’t threaten rushing record again. Why?
It’s almost football time in the bluegrass yet again. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Tennessee Martin could play out.
Record afternoon?
Kentucky was probably one offensive series with its No. 1 unit away from blasting the school record for rushing in a single game last week. Kentucky ran for 401 yards in a 38-14 victory at Vanderbilt. The record of 446 has stood since 1951.
Could the record be in jeopardy again Saturday?
UT Martin this season has allowed 134.7 rushing yards per game to its opponents, eight of whom were fellow members of the Ohio Valley Conference. In its two games against FBS schools, Florida and Southern Illinois, it gave up rushing totals of 231 and 264, respectively.
The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation with an average rushing total of 231.4, a number that’s bound to increase after this weekend. They’ve rushed for at least 300 yards in three of the five games Lynn Bowden has started at quarterback (they’d be 4-for-5 if they’d gotten 3 more yards against Missouri; slackers!).
At this point it’d almost be disappointing if Kentucky doesn’t crack the 300 mark against an FCS team, but recent evidence suggests it won’t happen. In six games vs. the FCS under head coach Mark Stoops, UK has not reached it. The Cats’ high in his tenure was a 281-yard day against Austin Peay in 2016; they tagged Murray State for 245 yards last year.
Two explanations for that trend? The passing game has often been featured more prominently, and more unproven players tend to see the field. I’d expect both of those things to be in play this time, too.
Redshirt report
Two more freshmen, running back Travis Tisdale and tight end Nik Ognenovic, made their debuts at Vanderbilt.
That leaves Kentucky with seven true freshmen who haven’t seen the field this season. Regardless of how the rest of the year plays out, all seven — plus Ognenovic, Tisdale, and linebackers Jared Casey and Tra Wilkins— are guaranteed to be redshirt freshmen next year, as they won’t pass the four games allowed by the NCAA.
The seven who haven’t played are: Cavon Butler (DL), Eli Cox (OL), Tae Tae Crumes (WR), Isaiah Gibson (DL), Amani Gilmore (QB), Jake Pope (OL) and Nik Scalzo (QB). All but Scalzo could feasibly make their UK debut on Saturday; he’s recovering from knee surgery.
Three defensive backs — M.J. Devonshire, Moses Douglass and Jalen Geiger — and wide receiver DeMarcus Harris have played two games in addition to linebackers KD McDaniel and J.J. Weaver. If all six of them played this week they could still play in one more game — against Louisville next weekend or in UK’s bowl game (assuming it’s eligible after this week).
Weaver’s situation might be the trickiest to navigate. Against Missouri and Vanderbilt, he provided glimpses of why he was rated as a four-star prospect coming out of Moore High School.
Stoops this week said he would not burn Weaver’s redshirt, and suggested he might not play against the Skyhawks. There should be ample playing time to be had against UT Martin, but playing would prevent Weaver from being able to play against Louisville or UK’s bowl opponent, where his services would likely be more valuable.
“We won’t at this point in time, but we probably could have played him some more when you look at the way he’s progressed the past three or four weeks,” Stoops said. “So, we’re trying to be strategic in that and not be selfish or wasteful as well with the young man’s year.”
Defensive back Taj Dodson is the only true freshman who’s played in three games — he played in Kentucky’s first three — and should have his redshirt preserved.
Little of Lynn
This is as much of a hope as it is a projection: UK handles Bowden with kid gloves this week.
If Kentucky jumps out to a 21-0 lead, don’t be surprised to see Sawyer Smith captain the offense for much of the remainder. Walker Wood should get more series. Gilmore could make his first appearance. Heck, walk-on Kolbe Langhi might make a trip out there.
With the unfortunate end of Tua Tagovailoa’s season fresh on the minds of all who follow college football and UK’s own unforgettable quarterback woes this season, there’s no reason to have Bowden on the field longer than it takes to build a comfortable lead. Keep him as fresh as possible for the Governor’s Cup showdown.
Final score
Kentucky 42, Tennessee Martin 7: The Cats will go bowling for the fourth straight season after scoring their biggest win of the season, and enter Louisville week without that burden on their shoulders. OVC opponents have come to Kroger Field and fought hard — and in a couple cases, longer than is comfortable for blue-clad fans in the bleachers — but the talent discrepancy alone is more than enough reason to think this one should be decided by halftime
