New rankings bring more change to UK’s bowl outlook. Here are the latest projections.
The latest update to the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night led to a reshuffling of national bowl projections Wednesday, and Kentucky’s spot was changed on many of those lists.
Alabama’s drop — from No. 5 to No. 12 after an upset loss to Auburn — caused the biggest reverberations among the new rankings, and the move is likely to have an effect on where other Southeastern Conference teams land in the postseason.
Coming out of the final weekend of the regular season, most national bowl projections had Louisiana State in the College Football Playoff with three SEC teams — Georgia, Florida and Alabama — in one of the four New Year’s Six bowl games.
Bama’s massive drop in Tuesday’s rankings removed them from New Year’s Six contention, however, and placed them below Auburn, which also looks to be on the outside looking in for a New Year’s Six game.
The Tigers could still make it into one of those bowls, but they’d likely need Georgia to defeat LSU in Saturday’s SEC championship game and get some unexpected help in other conference title games to get there.
So, going into the weekend, it appears that Alabama and Auburn will both be in the next tier of the SEC bowl selection process, adding one more team to the mix, and, possibly, lessening Kentucky’s chances at the Gator Bowl, which looked like the Cats’ best scenario following Saturday’s win over Louisville.
Kentucky’s most likely bowl?
Before taking a look at the newest bowl projections, here’s a quick recap of the SEC’s selection process. After teams are chosen for the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls, the Citrus Bowl will get its pick of the remaining bowl-eligible teams in the conference.
With Alabama out of the New Year’s Six conversation, it seems a good chance that the Citrus Bowl would choose the Crimson Tide over Auburn, even if the Tigers are ahead of them in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama has been in either the playoffs or a New Year’s Six bowl every season since that format began, and it’s unlikely the Citrus Bowl would get many chances to choose the Crimson Tide in the foreseeable future.
Once the Citrus Bowl picks its SEC team, the other bowl-eligible teams will be assigned one of the “Pool of Six” games: the Outback, Gator, Belk, Music City, Texas and Liberty Bowls. To make those assignments, the league office gets feedback from the schools and the bowl officials, then matches up the teams and bowls based on their preferences. A goal of this format is also to avoid, if possible, repeat pairings between schools and bowls.
If only three schools (LSU, Georgia and Florida) make the playoffs or a New Year’s Six game, that leaves six bowl-eligible teams (Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi State) for the Citrus Bowl and “Pool of Six” games.
Under that scenario, the newest projections from longtime college football reporter Brett McMurphy might make the most sense, especially for Kentucky. McMurphy, whose bowl predictions were posted on the Stadium website Wednesday, sent Auburn to the Citrus Bowl, with Alabama going to the Outback Bowl, Tennessee to the Gator Bowl, Kentucky to the Belk Bowl (against Virginia Tech on Dec. 31), Texas A&M to the Texas Bowl, and Mississippi State to the Music City Bowl.
These projections check several logical boxes.
Unless something strange happens Saturday to move Auburn into the New Year’s Six tier, it appears the Citrus Bowl spot will go to either Alabama or Auburn, with the Outback Bowl spot going to the other. Tennessee, which finished two games ahead of UK in the SEC standings and beat the Wildcats head to head, gets the Jan. 2 Gator Bowl, which last hosted the Vols five years ago. UK goes to the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, a place the Cats have never been for the postseason. Mississippi State goes to Nashville for the first time in eight years. And Texas A&M gets to stay close to home (Houston) and face a team from its old conference, the Big 12.
Not everyone agrees with those picks, however.
Kentucky’s other bowl projections
Of seven other sets of bowl predictions from national outlets that were posted immediately after Tuesday night’s rankings reveal, only one placed Kentucky in the Belk Bowl.
Kyle Bonagura, one of ESPN’s two bowl pickers, put Kentucky in that game (against Pittsburgh) after earlier having the Cats in the Music City Bowl.
The Athletic’s updated bowl projections, posted Friday morning, also moved Kentucky from the Gator Bowl to the Belk Bowl, however, putting the Cats with Virginia Tech in that game. Those projections had Georgia and Florida in the New Year’s Six, with Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn in the Outback Bowl and Tennessee in the Gator Bowl.
Three outlets — CBS Sports, CollegeFootballNews.com, and ESPN’s other bowl picker, Mark Schlabach — still had Kentucky in the Gator Bowl after the Tuesday night ranking shakeup.
The CBS projections, which earlier had the Wildcats in the Liberty Bowl, now pit UK against Michigan in Jacksonville, sending Alabama to the Citrus Bowl, Auburn to the Gator Bowl, and Tennessee to the Music City Bowl, which last hosted the Vols in 2016.
College Football News kept UK in the Gator Bowl (against Indiana) and sent Tennessee to the Liberty Bowl.
Schlabach kept Kentucky in the Gator Bowl against Wisconsin, with Auburn snagging a New Year’s Six spot, Alabama going to the Citrus Bowl, and Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.
Sports Illustrated put Kentucky in the Texas Bowl against Kansas State, but it’s highly unlikely the Wildcats would be sent to the farthest geographical location among the “Pool of Six” games.
Yahoo Sports and 247Sports.com’s updates both put Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis — against Iowa State and Texas, respectively — but that, too, is an unlikely destination. The Liberty Bowl would be the first SEC-affiliated game to not get a league team if there aren’t enough to go around within the “Pool of Six” tier, and that appears to be a near-certainty at this point.
No Music City Bowl?
Music City Bowl President and CEO Scott Ramsey told the Herald-Leader this week that his bowl game listed Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi State as its top three preferred teams (not necessarily in that order).
UK on that list makes sense. Nashville is the closest bowl game location to Lexington, and it’s a short trip that many Kentucky fans have enjoyed in the past. In fact, UK last played there just two years ago and has been to the Music City Bowl a total of five times in the past 20 years, including three trips in four seasons from 2006-09.
That level of recency could be a strike against the Cats and Nashville, where Tennessee has played in the postseason just twice (2016 and 2010) and Mississippi State only once (2011).
Another strike? The SEC’s projected opponent.
Louisville is a popular pick to be the Atlantic Coast Conference representative for this year’s Music City Bowl, and the Cats and Cards will not meet in the postseason.
Yahoo Sports, 247Sports, both of ESPN’s bowl pickers and Brett McMurphy are all predicting that Louisville will play Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl, while the CBS Sports projections have U of L facing Tennessee in that game.
If the Cards are in Nashville, the Cats will be somewhere else.
ESPN’s bowl selection show
All of the bowl games — including the College Football Playoff pairings and New Year’s Six participants — will be officially announced during a special “selection show” on ESPN at noon Sunday.
But don’t necessarily expect UK’s bowl assignment to be revealed at 12:05. The ESPN selection show is scheduled to last for four hours. And if that’s not enough to quench your Sunday college football thirst, a two-hour program titled “Championship Drive: Rankings Reaction” will air at 4 p.m. on ESPN2.
Until then, the projections will keep on coming.
This story was originally published December 5, 2019 at 10:16 AM.
