Big Blue Buildup: Looking forward to an unprecedented Kentucky football season
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2020 College Football Preview
The Lexington Herald-Leader’s 2020 College Football Preview special section was published in the print edition on Sunday, Aug. 30. Click below to view all the stories from that section that have been published on Kentucky.com.
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THE SEASON
Unprecedented.
The 2020 season, however much of it is played, will be defined by that word more than any other. Even before a global pandemic hanging over their heads, though, that figured to be an appropriate description of what could be in store for the Kentucky Wildcats this fall.
Twelve individual returning players were named to at least one preseason All-SEC team, and five were placed on watch lists for some of college football’s biggest individual honors. Kentucky was knocking on the door of the coaches’ preseason top 25, a feat it hasn’t achieved since, at least, before the 1990s (and possibly never).
What should have been a path to a fifth straight winning season for Kentucky was made tougher by the excision of four non-conference games and the addition of two additional Southeastern Conference opponents — including crimson-tinted blue blood Alabama — but UK should still enter 2020 with confidence that it can leave it with a positive record and, depending on how things play out, a chance to put together another special campaign similar to the one it managed in 2018.
An unexpected team could make a challenge for the throne, and there’s no reason Kentucky can’t be the one that does it.
THE TEAM
Key losses: Defensive ends T.J. Carter and Calvin Taylor Jr. were the biggest graduations from that side of the ball. Returning linebacker Chris Oats was a shoo-in to be a full-time starter at inside linebacker, but an undisclosed illness suffered over the summer is expected to sideline him into 2021; the task of replacing Kash Daniel will fall on the shoulders of someone else. On the flip side of the trenches, guard Logan Stenberg will be missed dearly; his aggression got him into trouble sometimes, but no player on the offensive line has better represented the kind of attitude sought by coach John Schlarman from the group.
Rising star: Jamar “Boogie” Watson is the best candidate to make the type of ascension that Josh Allen saw in 2018, and not just because he also happens to be an outside linebacker. Watson, a former three-star prospect out of Maryland, was elected to preseason All-SEC teams released by Athlon and Phil Steele, and has curried enough favor from the coaching staff to be talked about in the same vein as Allen, who went from a relatively unknown prospect to being the No. 7 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Coach Mark Stoops during UK’s shortened spring practice window said that Watson is a guy in whom he has “full confidence” to deliver in 2020. “He was highly motivated to put it all together this last year, to be a great leader, to be a great teammate, to do everything necessary to prepare himself for this year,” Stoops said then.
Biggest area of concern: It depends on how comfortable Terry Wilson ultimately is in game action. If his leg proves to be more of a concern than it’s believed to be — before fall camp he said he was at 100 percent — then quarterback is the No. 1 concern, in part because of what we don’t know about what’s behind him in a worst-case-scenario. Sawyer Smith is probably capable of delivering at a higher level than he displayed in most of his starts last year, but is far more limited in the run game than Wilson or Joey Gatewood, whose eligibility as of publishing has still not been determined. Losing that dimension would put more onus on UK’s receivers to make plays that, to this point, they’ve not demonstrated that they’re consistently able to do.
Assuming Wilson is good to go for the entirety of 2020, then the answer is the defensive line. The Cats don’t lack experience, necessarily, but there are enough moving parts to think it could take a game or two for the rotation to really jell, and an injury or two — especially to a stalwart in the middle like Quinton Bohanna or Swiss-army-knife Josh Paschal — could prove consequential for the entire defense.
Most important unit: The big boys up front were essential to UK’s ability to withstand multiple quarterback injuries last season and will be just as crucial in 2020 to maintaining the level of success fans have grown accustomed to seeing in recent seasons. Four returning starters — center Drake Jackson, offensive tackles Darian Kinnard and Landon Young, and guard Luke Fortner — can be relied on to deliver; they’ve proven that. Kenneth Horsey and Naasir Watkins have seen snaps and could be deployed in a number of manners depending on which side Fortner ends up starting; junior-college transfer Jeremy Flax also could provide an immediate boost in the trenches.
THE SCHEDULE
Toughest opponent: Alabama, in a landslide. Kentucky has beaten the Crimson Tide twice in 40 all-time meetings, the last time occurring when future No. 1 overall pick Tim Couch was playing quarterback in 1997. Kentucky has failed to reach double-digit points in either game it has played against the Crimson Tide under Stoops (the first was a 48-7 defeat, the second a 34-6 loss).
Must-win games: UK will be an underdog against Georgia at home and, based on its track record against the Bulldogs under Stoops, won’t win that game. That makes it crucial that the Cats go 4-0 against their other home opponents — South Carolina, Vanderbilt and the two Mississippi schools — in order to have a legitimate shot of a winning record this season. A road trip win at Missouri, in that case, would be UK’s ticket to a .500 season.
Toughest road trip: If you exempt Alabama from this discussion — that game is in Tuscaloosa — then the answer is Tennessee. The Wildcats haven’t won in Knoxville since 1984 and only have one win, period, against the Volunteers during Stoops’ seven previous seasons (2017). Tennessee is a trendy pick to possibly upend Georgia or Florida at the top of the SEC, but isn’t as scary, on paper, as either of those squads. Still, the lengthy history of misfortune directed at the Wildcats in this “rivalry” is enough to make it a challenge. It doesn’t hurt that Kentucky will be coming off a two-game home stand before it travels to UT, after which it should be on a two-game win streak (Mississippi and Mississippi State).
Upset special: The first few weeks of college football are notorious for producing wild outcomes, and while I don’t think it’s preposterous to pick Kentucky to defeat Auburn on the road in week one, many who just look at the front of the jerseys and don’t dig further will have the Tigers as a sizable favorite. They should be favored, but the distance between the programs isn’t as pronounced as it is between UK and a couple others in the West Division.
Best visitors: Mississippi running back Jerrion Ealy and Mississippi State running back Kylin Hill are among the top players Kentucky will face this season, and both will play at Kroger Field before October is halfway finished. Georgia senior Richard LeCounte is one of the top returning defensive backs in the league and could be the first safety taken in next year’s NFL Draft; he’s on the preseason watch list for the Bednarik Award given to college football’s top defensive player. Georgia’s most prominent offseason acquisition, Wake Forest quarterback transfer Jamie Newman, also will have four games to get accustomed to the SEC before coming to Lexington.
The postseason: What will become of bowl games this year is anyone’s guess. We’ll work from the (probably bad assumption) that all the ones with which the SEC has ties will be played. Following the College Football Playoff bowls — which this year includes the Sugar Bowl — the Orange Bowl and Citrus Bowl get first dibs. The latter bowl is the most likely “best case” scenario for UK in 2020. The Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Gator Bowl and Outback Bowl are in a “pool of six” following the Citrus Bowl, and then the Birmingham Bowl and Gasparilla Bowl can select any other additional SEC bowl qualifiers.
Given how little we can guess about what’s going to transpire amid the pandemic, getting to go to any bowl would be nice. I’ll put my money on the Gator Bowl against … Louisville.
Big Blue Meter
The 2020 season is a success if: It’s played to completion. Even an 0-10 season full of one-point losses, at this point, would be welcomed with open arms over no season at all.
The 2020 season is a disappointment: To be less facetious, 5-5 should be the absolute floor for this team. Wins over Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be expected. At least one win over the other five teams on this year’s slate seems reasonable, barring season-altering injuries to a key player or two.
2020 UK football schedule
Home games in all capital letters. Kickoff times and TV details to be announced later.
Sept. 26: At Auburn, Noon (SEC Network)
Oct. 3: MISSISSIPPI, 4 p.m. (SEC Network)
Oct. 10: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Oct. 17: At Tennessee
Oct. 24: GEORGIA
Oct. 31: At Missouri, Noon (SEC Network)
Nov. 14: VANDERBILT
Nov. 21: At Alabama
Nov. 28: At Florida
Dec. 5: SOUTH CAROLINA
This story was originally published August 30, 2020 at 8:54 AM.
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