Predictions: Can underdog Kentucky leave Alabama with its pride intact?
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts about Kentucky’s game against Alabama, and how it might play out Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
Slow down
Kentucky couldn’t beat Mississippi playing the Rebels’ game. It definitely can’t beat Alabama playing ‘Bama’s game.
It’s going to be an uphill battle to overcome the Crimson Tide regardless of approach, but there is a formula for better success than none at all: grinding the game to an absolute halt.
Any version of this contest that involves Kentucky attempting to play catchup following multiple big plays by the nation’s No. 1 team is a contest in which the Cats are likely to be embarrassed; UK is capable of making big plays, but not with the consistency or frequency it needs with Nick Saban’s defense lining up on the other side. Its best chance at playing spoiler will come from a steady, heavy dose of Chris Rodriguez, A.J. Rose and Kavosiey Smoke, whom offensive coordinator Eddie Gran says will be more involved this week.
Smoke missed three straight games with a rib injury before getting a handful of snaps in the last two outings.
“I’m usually pretty good at rep counts and I needed to get him in there more,” Gran said. “He’s full speed, he’s ready to go. I’m really excited about him this week, ‘cause you look at his explosive runs prior to him getting hurt, (it) was really good.”
‘Bama gives up 128.8 rushing yards per game, but will have the advantage of going up against a UK squad whose passing attack remains suspect despite coming off one of its best showings this season. It will need every bit of yardage it can churn out between the tackles and to hit some home runs — on the ground and through the air — to keep Mac Jones and his litany of weapons off the field. Multiple drives of 7-10 minutes are Kentucky’s clearest path to an upset. It’s not much of a window, but it’s something.
Draft tape
Thanks to this year not counting against their eligibility, several UK seniors will have a decision to make: return to the program for an additional year of school and playing time, or move on with their lives, whether those lives will include jobs in professional football or not. A few underclassmen could have an opportunity to leave early, too.
How those decisions get made in the midst of a pandemic will be different than in most years, but one thing that won’t change is the evaluation of game tape, particularly that against teams stocked with NFL talent. Alabama checks that box, as does Florida, whom the Wildcats are scheduled to face next weekend. If trying to score a win against the nation’s No. 1 team isn’t enough of an incentive, looking good against projected first-round picks should be another.
Junior Darian Kinnard probably will have the privilege of frequently matching up with lineman Christian Barmore, a 310-pound hulk who wrecked Mississippi State’s offensive front in Alabama’s most recent game on Halloween. Every member of the offensive line — whose decisions could be game-changing for 2021 — must keep tabs on Dylan Moses, one of the most coveted linebackers in the forthcoming draft. Similarly, Quinton Bohanna and Kentucky’s other defensive linemen must overcome Alex Leatherwood on the ‘Bama front.
And that’s just in the trenches; Alabama trots out a number of skill players who right now are projected as first-round choices. Ripping a ball away from Najee Harris or making a big catch against Patrick Surtain II could stick out once the time comes for NFL scouts to make calls. It might also make you wonder if you’re as ready for the NFL as you might think you are if they consistently burn you.
For what it’s worth, defensive coordinator Brad White doesn’t often raise that topic with his players.
“I think they already know that,” White said. “ ... The players these days understand the magnitude of every game, who they’re playing and not just from a team standpoint, but an individual standpoint, and who they’ll be weighed against. To add that, it’s kind of like when you’re recruiting a young man out of high school and he wants so badly to earn a scholarship and he presses or gets nervous about if he has a bad play, ‘Oh, what’s that gonna look like on tape?’ If you start playing with that as your mindset, then you play soft, you play timid. If you make a bad play you hang your head, your shoulders droop, the whole thing.”
Kentucky has bridged the talent gap between it and many teams in the SEC. We’ll see how wide it might still be on Saturday.
Pride
Alabama is a 30-point favorite, per Bovada. ESPN gives Kentucky a 3.3 percent chance of winning. The Wildcats in 40 all-time meetings have beaten the Crimson Tide twice, and one of those victories was before the SEC existed.
To say Kentucky is an underdog Saturday would be an understatement. If the Wildcats play within two touchdowns of the Crimson Tide I’d chalk that up as a major success; they’d be the first team to do that all season (Ole Miss got the closest in a 63-48 loss on Oct. 10). But, indicators of progress can be found even in a blowout, if one were to unfold. Kentucky lost 34-6 the last time these two got together (also in Tuscaloosa); that was the last of Stoops’ non-bowl teams, so it’ll be fascinating to see how this unit measures up to that squad’s effort.
Three games remain in Kentucky’s campaign, and the Cats are decisive underdogs in the next two. A bowl trip could be in the cards, depending on how things shake out across the league, but for the remainder of the season the program’s pride is at stake as much as anything. Kentucky has made great strides over the last couple years and entered 2020 with high expectations; it hasn’t met them, in part through no fault of its own, but it can still end the season on a strong foot even if the record doesn’t say as much. How it plays, at this point, matters as much as whether or not it wins or loses.
Final predictions
Alabama 35, Kentucky 10: If Kentucky’s offense were more explosive this might be a more appetizing matchup, but outside of its games against some of the league’s worst defenses, it’s just not been able to overcome an impotent passing game well enough to dictate the terms of engagement. Alabama is well-oiled and ready to take back its position at the top of the SEC; UK will be just another road bump on its way to that reclamation.
The last word
Nose guard Quinton Bohanna on Alabama’s star-studded roster:
“All week we’re hearing, ‘It’s ‘Bama, woot de woot,’ but I think when you see you’ve gotta go against Quinton Bohanna and Josh Paschal and Phil Hoskins, those three are hell of a players too. I’m tired of hearing they’re good players. Of course they’re good players, but s--t, excuse my language, we’re good players, too.”
