Kentucky at Florida predictions: Gators are beatable, but Cats have to keep up
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts about Kentucky’s game against Florida, and how it might play out Saturday in Gainesville.
Match blows
Kentucky, a team that the last two seasons finished as a top-20 defense nationally, this week will look to avoid going 0-3 against the league’s top three offensive squads and a third straight week giving up more than 30 points; in its 23 games prior to the Vanderbilt win, it had only given up more than 30 one time — against Mississippi earlier this year.
Sixth-ranked Florida is averaging nearly 100 more yards per game this year (522.3) than last year (430.8) but has traded those stats on the other side (the Gators are allowing 410.6 this season to 306.7 last year). While those inviting defensive numbers haven’t exactly been a boon for Kentucky this year — it’s only twice managed to crack 400 yards against any team, and one of them was Vanderbilt — it at least presents a more manageable scenario than the one it faced last week against Alabama.
The Gators are gonna score. The Wildcats are talented on defense but between their own inability to get into viable pass-rush situations and to reliably capitalize on the few times those situations present themselves each game, teams continue to eat against them on third down. UK is giving up 45 percent of those conversions to opponents, and are even worse on fourth-down tries (63 percent). Opponents have scored touchdowns on 23 of their 33 red-zone trips against Kentucky as well, while the Cats are getting TDs in half of their own visits (11 of 21).
If Florida can’t be completely reined in — and considering the Gators have hung 500-plus yards on comparable and better defenses, they probably won’t be — then Kentucky has to punch it in every opportunity it gets. Otherwise, another ordeal like the one in Alabama could unfold.
Stay on Trask
It didn’t amount to much, and was at least in part attributable to him taking off most of the second half, but Kentucky for the most part was able to keep one Heisman hopeful, Mac Jones, in check as much as one could hope. (In fact, his 166.3 quarterback rating was his lowest of the season; on the flip side, that was still better than all but one of Terry Wilson’s ratings in 2020).
Florida signal-caller Kyle Trask is a different animal, albeit one with which the Wildcats have some familiarity: Trask turned around the Gators’ fortunes after relieving an injured Feleipe Franks en route to a 29-21 victory last season in Lexington. Trask, a pure pocket passer who stands at 6-foot-5, didn’t throw a touchdown but threw for 126 yards on 9-for-13 passing and rushed for a touchdown on his only carry of last year’s game.
Unlike Jones, Trask does not have the benefit of an NFL running back like Najee Harris to shoulder some offensive weight. Both of UK’s top backs (Chris Rodriguez and A.J. Rose) rank ahead of Florida’s leading rusher, Dameon Pierce, in total yardage and yards per attempt; Wilson has ran for one more touchdown than Pierce and Trask combined this season. Trask more than makes up for that discrepancy as a passer, however, having thrown for 2,554 yards and 31 touchdowns while completing 70.7 percent of his passes with just three interceptions all year.
The Wildcats might be best served by accepting whatever Florida attempts with its run game — the Gators have basically been boom or bust in that department — and doing everything they can to maximize their chances to take down and pick off Trask. They rank among the nation’s leaders with 11 total interceptions and are tied for the lead with three pick-sixes; those stats need to grow for an upset to occur Saturday.
Believe
This is hokey, but if nothing else, Kentucky needs to go to Gainesville with one thing in mind: it belongs on the same field as Florida.
The same probably could not have been said prior to the Alabama bout, and certainly should not be said after. Even at full strength, the Wildcats weren’t winning that game with the effort on display in Tuscaloosa. They can beat Florida; a lot of the players who will suit up Saturday have.
In its last two meetings (the two with head coach Dan Mullen at the helm), Kentucky has defeated the Gators (27-16 in 2018) and lost an eight-point contest in which it led a good chunk of the game with a quarterback making his team debut. Florida, on paper, is a more talented group overall than Kentucky, but the gap isn’t as pronounced as the records indicate.
A team that’s faced its share of personal struggles away from the field has an opportunity to channel heartbreak into a performance that can redeem something of a lost season. Win or lose, Kentucky has to go down swinging to rekindle some of its fire.
Final predictions
Florida 34, Kentucky 21: I’m gonna go out on a limb and say UK leads this game at halftime before Mullen rouses his guys up for a rally. After two lackluster defensive showings, holding Florida to 10 points under its season average would be something of a win, but probably not enough to matter unless Kentucky can move the ball efficiently for four quarters. It hasn’t done that all year, so it’s tough to think it will suddenly find its footing in the penultimate week of the season. But, crazier things have happened.
The last word
Co-offensive coordinator and running backs coach Eddie Gran on why the offenses at programs like Alabama and Florida are more high-octane than the one he runs at Kentucky:
“(We’re) just different in terms of personnel and philosophy. If you throw it 40, 50 times a game, then that’s your philosophy. Ours is more what you saw the first 40 plays of the (Alabama) game. It’s play-action pass. We had ‘em moving, we had some motions and shifts. We ran the ball well and if we execute on a couple red-zone plays … if we score three times right there, you’re not asking that question.”
Saturday
Kentucky at No. 6 Florida
When: Noon
TV: ESPN
Records: UK 3-5; Florida 6-1
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Florida leads 52-18
Last meeting: Florida won 29-21 on Sept. 14, 2019, in Lexington
This story was originally published November 26, 2020 at 9:52 AM.
