Kentucky vs. South Carolina predictions: A high note waits for whoever wants it
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts about Kentucky’s game against South Carolina, and about how it might play out Saturday at Kroger Field.
Reeling offenses
Whatever Kentucky does offensively on Saturday, try not to get too worked up about it, because changes appear to be on the horizon.
What that will actually entail is to be determined, but head coach Mark Stoops this week has spoken about the necessity of an improved passing attack in order for Kentucky to keep growing as a program. A bowl game could be forthcoming, but it sounds like an examination of the program will begin as early as after the final horn sounds on Saturday.
“We do need to get better. There is no denying that,” Stoops said Monday. “Some of the football that we have put out there is unacceptable and that is my job as the head coach to look at that, address it and improve. I don’t want to get into specifics. There is no time for pointing fingers and doing all of that right now. I have to continue to move the program forward and there is no doubt in my mind that I have to continue to look at all things and improve and get better and I will certainly do that after this week.”
Kentucky is averaging 115.6 passing yards per game, better than only three teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision — Georgia Southern (101.4), Air Force (67) and Army (50.2). Navy, which like the three aforementioned teams runs the triple-option, is averaging more passing yards (117.3) than the Wildcats. UK is one of 17 Power Five teams averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, but fortunately for it, one of the other 16 is South Carolina. The Gamecocks rank 97th of 127 FBS teams at 196.1 yards through the air.
Neither team has reached 300 yards passing in a single game (Carolina got close, 290, as it tried to rally in a 31-27 loss against Tennessee in its season opener), and both have been sieves on defense lately: UK in three straight games has surrendered at least 400 total yards while the Gamecocks have give up 400-plus yards in five of their last six (the exception was a 17-10 loss to Missouri in which they gave up 301 yards).
Kentucky has been a little stingier than Carolina on defense, overall. Despite consecutive blowouts, UK’s 385.1 yards allowed still ranks fifth in the league while Carolina is giving up 447 a night, good for 12th. The Gamecocks are giving up a bit more than an additional touchdown per game, 35.4 points to Kentucky’s 27.3 allowed a week.
Given that the Gamecocks have lost three starting defensive backs to opt-outs this season, two of them in the last couple of weeks, they should be as ripe for the picking as any team Kentucky has met this season. But the Cats have shown few signs in the passing game to indicate they’ll be comfortable taking advantage of a short-handed secondary. If there were ever a week to throw the entire playbook at a defense, though, this would be the one (especially if that playbook possibly could soon be leaving the facility).
Spirit-booster
This game is an opportunity for both teams to end lackluster campaigns with a meaningful, uplifting victory. It seems odd to suggest a win over a 3-6 Kentucky team or a 2-7 South Carolina team could be defined as such, but in the context of the Southeastern Conference there’s a lot at stake for both programs.
If you’re Carolina, beating Kentucky for the second year in a row despite an end-of-year coaching fire and multiple players opting out would suggest you’ve not fallen as far back as it might have appeared over the last couple of seasons. It would also give the Gamecocks three wins, putting them right in the thick of the logjam of SEC teams that currently boast that number of victories and possibly in contention for a bowl invitation.
For Kentucky, a win would all but ensure a bowl invite, assuming most of the SEC’s affiliated bowls all stay on board for the 2020 season (the Las Vegas Bowl officially came off the board on Wednesday). It would also lock it in as no worse than the No. 4 team this year in the SEC’s East Division behind Florida, Georgia and Missouri, the last of which may or may not finish with a winning record depending on how it performs against Arkansas this week and whether its two other postponed games get placed back on the schedule. A win also would, at worst, allow Kentucky to match the likely season-long win totals of LSU and Mississippi. That’s not nothing.
Final predictions
Kentucky 28, South Carolina 24: For the reasons listed above, I believe both teams will come out ready to play a high-level SEC football game. Depending on how the bowl situation sorts itself out, it very well could be the final time either takes the field in 2020, and after a grueling season unlike no other, they’ll be able to play with something of a weight lifted off their shoulders. The Wildcats get the Senior Night victory after answering a go-ahead touchdown by the Gamecocks late in the fourth quarter.
MVP: Terry Wilson. In his final game at Kroger Field, the senior quarterback does something he’s only managed five times previously in his career, and only once this season, by throwing for 200-plus yards. He rushes for 100-plus yards and the game-winning touchdown to affirm his position as one of the school’s all-time best to play the position.
The last word
Defensive tackle Phil Hoskins reflected on the challenges of getting through the 2020 season:
“To be honest, this season has been very exhausting for a lot of guys, especially with all we’ve been through. School-wise, team-wise, the loss of brothers, the loss of mentors. Even things outside of school, personal things. It’s difficult for a lot of guys. And just the fact that a lot of us are still out here and a lot of us are still grinding, it just shows the character of a lot of guys and the willpower to get through whatever. I respect a lot of guys for how they’re approaching this.”
Next game
South Carolina at Kentucky
When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
TV: SEC Network
Records: Kentucky 3-6; South Carolina 2-7
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: South Carolina leads 18-12-1.
Last meeting: South Carolina won 24-7 on Sept. 28, 2019, at Columbia, S.C.
