Citrus? Outback? Music City? Let’s try to make sense of UK’s bowl outlook.
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Game day: Tennessee 45, No. 18 Kentucky 42
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Saturday night’s Kentucky-Tennessee football game at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky.
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Representatives of the Peach Bowl and Sugar Bowl were in attendance for Kentucky’s game against Tennessee on Saturday. Their due diligence was for naught; any hope UK had of qualifying for either “New Year’s Six” destination was all but squashed with the Cats’ 45-42 loss to Tennessee.
Kentucky, based on its remaining schedule, ought to finish 9-3, a record that has been good enough to put SEC teams into the Peach Bowl and others of its ilk as an at-large team. However, given the perceived strength of the SEC Western Division — five of its teams were ranked in the top 17 in the initial College Football Playoff — the chance of Kentucky passing all of the four not named Alabama for an at-large bid is microscopic. Getting back into the conversation for a NY6 game would require teams to beat up on each other in a way that breaks well for Kentucky, record-wise, and an upset or two — like Auburn laying an egg at South Carolina on Nov. 20 and Texas A&M doing the same at LSU in the regular season’s final week.
Chances are that a 9-3 Kentucky team, by virtue of the Eastern Division’s perceived weakness outside of Georgia, is going to have a less-impressive résumé than any other SEC team that finishes with a like record. Auburn and Ole Miss, who’ve already played each other (the Tigers won), could each finish 9-3 or better. A 10-2 finish is in play for Texas A&M. Mississippi State (5-4 after losing at Arkansas) seems most likely to fall back down during the stretch, which doesn’t do UK any favors at all considering how it performed against the Bulldogs.
This all assumes, by the way, that any of these teams will finish high enough to even earn an at-large bid. There’s a ton of football to be played across the country, but as it stands only one at-large berth really seems up for grabs. If an SEC team doesn’t get it, that’d put Kentucky even further down the bowl pecking order.
Let’s say Kentucky wins out and is 9-3 at the end of November. Here’s how their bowl outlook would likely shape up.
Citrus Bowl
Jan. 1 at Orlando, Fla.: The last time Kentucky finished 9-3 it played in this bowl, which will have the first choice of SEC teams after the Sugar Bowl team is determined and after any at-large berths are earned. In the Cats’ favor would be its fan base — it traveled well last time — but historically this bowl takes the highest-ranked team available from the SEC.
That’s not likely to be UK, so don’t count on making a New Year’s trip to Orlando.
Outback Bowl
Jan. 1 at Tampa, Fla.: This bowl is technically part of the “Pool of Six,” a group of bowls that the SEC, other affiliated conferences and ESPN work together with to produce the best matchups. Historically, though, the Outback Bowl is considered the best of that litter.
After Saturday, a trip to Tampa is probably Kentucky’s ceiling. UK’s placement here could be contingent on how things shake out with the Big Ten and its at-large potential; if, say, a bowl could pit recruiting rival Michigan or Iowa, Stoops’ alma mater, against the Wildcats here, that’d be attractive. Auburn and Ole Miss have each played in the Outback Bowl in the last two years, too, which helps Kentucky’s chances. Don’t rule this one out.
Music City Bowl
Dec. 30 at Nashville, Tenn.: Ah, the Cats’ old friend: no team has played in the Nashville-based bowl more times than Kentucky (five), and it has not been there since 2017. Of the potential destinations in the “Pool of Six,” this is maybe the most likely.
Kentucky would make history by being the first nine-win SEC team to play in the Music City Bowl. Whether that’s a good or bad thing could be up for debate, but considering that the bowl wasn’t played in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s something it would love to sell to potential attendees. The game this year pits the SEC against a Big Ten team, setting up the possibility of UK meeting an Iowa (Stoops’ alma mater) or a Purdue (Jeff Brohm!) in Nashville, a destination city for Kentucky’s fan base.
If you made me choose, knowing what we know now about the parts involved, I’d guess UK plays here.
Texas Bowl
Jan. 4 at Houston: Given the strength of the Western Division, it’s probably more likely to end up with one of its teams rather than a team from the East, but Kentucky would be an interesting call here. Only Missouri and Vanderbilt have played in this game from the East, but with the SEC soon expanding its footprint further into Texas and into Oklahoma, perhaps it would like to show off more of what it has in the Lone Star State.
This game pits an SEC team against a Big 12 squad, which could pave the way for a matchup with Baylor, Texas or West Virginia, all teams with whom UK has dueled in basketball but seldom in football. It’s not wild to think Kentucky ends up here.
The rest
Kentucky won’t play in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Dec. 31 at Jacksonville, Fla.); it was there last year, and the leagues try their hardest to avoid back-to-back trips to destinations.
From the “Pool of Six,” that leaves the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 30 at Charlotte, N.C.) and the Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28 at Memphis, Tenn.). The former is probably less likely — UK played in it in 2019, when it was known as the Belk Bowl — but the Liberty is traditionally regarded as the weakest of the six. If a UK-WVU pairing were to be desired, the Liberty would make more travel sense than shipping both to Texas, but otherwise it’s hard to see UK ending up there.
Next game
Kentucky at Vanderbilt
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
TV: ESPN2
Records: Kentucky 6-3 (4-3 SEC), Vanderbilt 2-7 (0-5)
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Kentucky leads 47-42-4
Last meeting: Kentucky won 38-35 on Nov. 14, 2020, in Lexington.
This story was originally published November 7, 2021 at 1:47 AM.
