What the first College Football Playoff rankings mean for Kentucky football bowl options

Kentucky football was absent from the first College Football Playoff Committee top 25 ranking of the 2022 season released Tuesday evening.

But the way the committee slotted other SEC teams still has an impact on the Wildcats’ bowl possibilities.

Five SEC teams were included in the committee’s first ranking: No. 1 Tennessee, No. 3 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama, No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss. Each of those teams is in contention for one of the New Year’s Six bowls (Peach, Fiesta, Rose, Sugar, Orange and Cotton). The committee fills those bowls based on rankings and preexisting contracts between the games and specific leagues.

For now, both Tennessee and Georgia are in position to reach the four-team playoff, though that outlook could change based on the outcome of their head-to-head matchup this weekend where one is guaranteed to pick up its first loss of the season. The Peach and Fiesta bowls will serve as the playoff semifinals.

The top-ranked SEC team outside the playoff — currently Alabama — takes the SEC’s contracted spot in the Sugar Bowl to face the top-ranked Big 12 team outside the playoff. The Rose Bowl will match a Big Ten team against a Pac-12 team.

Once the Sugar and Rose bowls are filled, the highest-ranked available team from the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame will be sent to the Orange Bowl to face the top-ranked ACC squad outside the playoff. Tuesday’s ranking would award that spot to LSU.

One final at-large spot in the New Year’s Six games is available in the Cotton Bowl to face the highest-ranked Group of Five conference team. If this week’s ranking holds, that game would match Tulane with Southern Cal.

Because the ACC spot in the Orange Bowl and Group of Five spot in the Cotton Bowl would be filled by teams outside the top 12 in Tuesday’s ranking, Ole Miss would miss out on a New Year’s Six bowl berth despite being ranked 11th. In that scenario, the Rebels would almost certainly go to the Citrus Bowl, which has first pick of SEC teams after the New Year’s Six bowls are filled by the committee. Ole Miss has never played in the Citrus Bowl.

HOW THE SEC ASSIGNS TEAMS TO ‘POOL OF SIX’ BOWLS

In any year, the SEC’s bowl selection process after the Citrus Bowl makes its pick is complicated. The fact that no other SEC teams are ranked in the committee’s top 25 and six teams enter the weekend with four or five victories this year only adds to the uncertainty.

The next tier of SEC bowls is known as the “Pool of Six,” but the bowls in that group do not simply pick which teams they want to play in their games as they used to. The league office has final decision on which SEC teams play in the ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas and Liberty bowls.

To make that decision, the SEC solicits feedback from schools and bowls about their top preferences in the group. Then the league works to make what it views as the best assignments for the entire group. Primary considerations include avoiding repeat bowl trips in a short period of time and avoiding matchups that have already been played in the regular season, were played in recent bowl games or are scheduled to be played next season.

While the “Pool of Six” games technically have the same weight in the SEC’s system, the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly known as the Outback Bowl, retains some advantage in public prestige thanks to its usual spot as a New Year’s Day game played in Florida. (This year the ReliaQuest Bowl will be played on Monday, Jan. 2, to avoid conflicting with the New Year’s Day NFL schedule.) The ReliaQuest Bowl is likely to be the top target for most of the teams in the “Pool of Six,” including Kentucky. Arkansas is unlikely to play in that game though since it did last season.

KENTUCKY FOOTBALL BOWL POSSIBILITIES

If Kentucky goes 3-1 down the stretch, beating Missouri, Vanderbilt and Louisville while losing to Georgia, it would feel good about its chances of landing the ReliaQuest Bowl with an 8-4 record. Even upsetting Georgia might not be enough to put the Wildcats in contention for the Citrus Bowl, since Kentucky played there last season and at least a couple of the SEC teams currently ranked are likely to drop down a tier over the final month due to losses while playing each other.

Ole Miss played in the ReliaQuest Bowl at the end of the 2020 season, so the Rebels are unlikely to be sent there if they fall into the “Pool of Six.” LSU has not played there since 2014 though and would be an attractive option for the game if the Tigers pick up multiple losses in a final month that includes games against Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M.

A loss to anyone other than Georgia in November would be a major blow to Kentucky’s hopes of playing in Tampa. In that scenario, projecting a bowl destination for Kentucky becomes more difficult for a number of reasons.

The Wildcats are unlikely to be placed in the Gator Bowl since they played there at the end of the 2020 season. The Music City Bowl is always a popular pick for Kentucky among media projections, but this year the game looks like a bad fit because it kicks off at the same time as the Kentucky-Louisville men’s basketball game on New Year’s Eve. Especially after this summer’s “basketball school” controversy between John Calipari and Mark Stoops, UK administrators are unlikely to want to make fans pick between the two games.

UK has never played in the Texas Bowl, but that game has usually featured an SEC West team. Arkansas, Mississippi State and Texas A&M could be available for its selection. If the Texas Bowl picks an East Division team, Missouri might make the most sense.

In a scenario where Kentucky does not play in the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl might actually be the most attractive option. That game will feature an SEC team for the first time this season. While it is the earliest of the SEC games (Dec. 17), it does offer a trip that would be exciting for most fan bases.

Multiple losses for Kentucky would put the Liberty Bowl in play too. Kentucky last played in the Memphis game in the 2008 season. Precedent suggests the Dec. 28 Liberty Bowl has the least clout among the “Pool of Six” games in the SEC’s process, as the league has chosen not to send a team there in recent years when it did not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the “Pool of Six” games.

KENTUCKY FOOTBALL BOWL PROJECTIONS

ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Gator Bowl versus Wake Forest

ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Music City Bowl versus Maryland

The Athletic (Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman): ReliaQuest Bowl versus Illinois

USA Today (Erick Smith): ReliaQuest Bowl versus Illinois

Athlon (Steve Lassan): Gator Bowl versus Notre Dame

CBSSports (Jery Palm): Music City Bowl versus Maryland

The Sporting News (Bill Bender): Music City Bowl versus Wisconsin

Action Network (Brett McMurphy): ReliaQuest Bowl versus Illinois

Next game

Kentucky at Missouri

When: Noon Saturday

TV: SEC Network

Records: Kentucky 5-3 (2-3 SEC), Missouri 4-4 (2-3)

This story was originally published November 2, 2022 at 7:55 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription