Kentucky vs. Missouri predictions: Can Wildcats bounce back from Tennessee blowout?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game at Missouri might play out on Saturday.
OPENING DRIVE CONCERNS
The list of offensive worries for Kentucky is long at the moment, but one of particular interest at Missouri will be how the Wildcats perform on their first drive after the embarrassing Tennessee blowout loss.
Kentucky has scored on its opening drive in two of eight games this season but in none of the last four games.
“Definitely something that has been evaluated, needs to change,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said.
Kentucky has averaged 27.5 yards per opening drive this season. Against Miami (Ohio) and Northern Illinois, Scangarello’s offense scored touchdowns on drives of 79 and 75 yards on its first possession.
In five SEC games, Kentucky is averaging just 8.6 yards per opening drive. Twice, UK has lost yards on its opening drive. Last week against Tennessee, Kentucky netted zero yards while going three-and-out on its first drive.
After back-to-back rushes for no gain from star running back Chris Rodriguez, quarterback Will Levis was late on a throw to Barion Brown on third down.
“In full disclosure, we knew they would be geeked up, knew they would be out to attack the run,” Scangarello said. “We were going with a mindset that we were going to run the ball, have some physicality in this game. We knew kind of what that first play might look like, be some collisions in there, be a violent play.
“Are you just going to drop back and play-pass? There’s a fine line. …. That’s my decision. I chose to be conservative initially, to run the ball the first two plays to get a bunch of young guys’ in that environment butterflies out, quite honestly.”
Making a statement early against Missouri could be even more important for Kentucky considering already once this season the Wildcats let one loss spiral into two, according to Mark Stoops. Building momentum early in Columbia could help reduce the worry of another South Carolina debacle.
The challenge will be difficult, though. Missouri has held its opponent scoreless in the first quarter in three of the last four games.
A RIVALRY GAME?
Asked which team they considered the Tigers’ biggest SEC rival in the summer, one Missouri player at the SEC’s media days had an interesting answer.
“I just hate that blue and white,” defensive back Martez Manuel told the Columbia Daily Tribune.
It’s unlikely many Kentucky fans view Missouri as a rival.
Louisville and Tennessee will always hold the distinction of Big Blue Nation’s most hated foes. Recent balance in the Florida series has restored some spice there after Kentucky’s long losing streak. South Carolina might be fourth on the list thanks to several heated games in the last decade-plus.
But Kentucky’s series with Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC has at least been entertaining.
Kentucky has a 6-4 record against Missouri in that time. Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by two scores or less. Kentucky’s 15-14 win in Columbia in 2018 still angers Missouri fans thanks to what they viewed as a bad pass interference call to set up a final untimed down on which Kentucky scored the game-winning touchdown.
Rivalry or not, Kentucky has to be aware of Missouri’s perception of the game this week.
“We’re constantly trying to gain on each other, so you have to understand that,” Stoops said. “We can’t let them be the more hungry football team. We have to match that intensity and understand the importance of it. I believe our guys do. We’ve talked about it all week. We understand that.
“We’ve already run into that one time this year when a team came out and really played harder than us. I don’t like that as a head coach. We want to play hard and we want to play physical. These guys do a nice job of that as well.”
INJURY REPORT
As has been the case for most of the season for Kentucky, there will be intrigue this week about which players are available in warmups.
At least five Wildcats left the loss to Tennessee early due to injury, including starters DeAndre Square, Chris Rodriguez and Tyrell Ajian. Of that group, only Square was left off the depth chart this week. The others were considered “day to day,” according to Stoops.
With Square not expected to play, sophomore Trevin Wallace is likely to start at weakside linebacker alongside junior D’Eryk Jackson at middle linebacker. Jackson took over that starting job three games ago after a foot injury sidelined normal starter Jacquez Jones.
“D’Eryk has played a lot of snaps, so he’s going to be able to help sort of be a calming force in there,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “I think they’re a good pairing because they keep each other up. Trevin has got the jovial personality. It keeps D’Eryk loose. D’Eryk plays his best when he’s loose. When he starts to get tight, we’re concerned about a misfit or misplay or missed tackled. I think they can bring the best out of each other.”
White mentioned Ajian as a veteran who can help ease any communication concerns on defense with Square and Jones out, so he seems set to return to the field. There has been no update on Rodriguez, the Wildcats’ star running back who missed most of the second half against Tennessee due to an undisclosed injury.
On Thursday, Stoops did report some progress in team health without going into specifics about individual players.
“They were good and dialed in on Monday,” Stoops said when asked about his team’s energy in practice this week. “And as they feel better, get their legs up underneath them, get their bruises and things healed up of that nature, better and better as the week has gone on.”
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Missouri 20, Kentucky 17: On paper, Kentucky is the better team, but Missouri’s defense is legitimately good. Combine that fact with the Wildcats’ recent offensive struggles, the 11 a.m. local start time and Kentucky’s worrisome trend of letting one loss spiral into multiple defeats and this game seems likely to turn into an ugly slugfest. A win for Kentucky in Columbia won’t do much to move the needle nationally, but it would represent an important show of resolve after being officially knocked out of the SEC race at Tennessee. I just can’t predict that outcome given the number of inconsistent performances from this team already this season.
MVP: Isaiah McGuire. Two months into the season, and Kentucky still can’t trust its pass protection. That could lead to a second consecutive standout showing from Missouri’s senior defensive end, who ranks third in the SEC in tackles for loss (9.5) and sixth in sacks (four). Last week, McGuire was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week after recording three tackles for loss and two sacks in the upset of South Carolina.
The spread: Kentucky was favored by one point as of Friday morning. UK has won six of the last seven games in the series, but Missouri did win the last game in Columbia, 20-10, in 2020. Missouri is 3-1 at home this season with the only loss coming in a 26-22 defeat to No. 1 Georgia. Kentucky is 1-2 on the road.
Will Levis passing yards: 215.
Kentucky turnovers: 2.
Combined tackles for Trevin Wallace and D’Eryk Jackson: 23.
Kentucky field goals: 1 of 3.
THE LAST WORD
“We’ve given a game away, and we can be better. We have to be tighter. It’s how you finish. It’s what you are at the end, not now. We have to continue to grow and get better. I think we will. We have the right people in that room. I think we have the right makeup in this building to get that done, no problem.”
— Scangarello on UK’s offensive outlook.