Music City Bowl predictions: Can Kentucky beat Iowa for second time in 2022?
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Music City Bowl preview: Kentucky vs. Iowa
The University of Kentucky football team concludes its 2022 season Saturday against Big Ten rival Iowa in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. Click below to view all the stories previewing the game that have been published on Kentucky.com.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass for the final time in 2022. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the Music City Bowl matchup between Kentucky and Iowa might play out on Saturday.
DOES THE REMATCH MATTER?
The Southeastern Conference bowl selection process is supposed to be designed in part to avoid repeat matchups in the mid-tier bowls, but no one at Kentucky, Iowa, the Music City Bowl or SEC office objected to the Wildcats and Hawkeyes squaring off for the second season in a row.
Now, the two teams will bookend 2022 with bowl matchups, having played in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day and the Music City Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Surely revenge for UK’s Citrus Bowl win is a motivating factor for Iowa this week, but despite playing twice in the same calendar year, the two rosters already look dramatically different than they did 365 days ago.
Just look at Kentucky’s game-winning drive in the Citrus Bowl for proof.
Star wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, the MVP of the Citrus Bowl, who caught four passes for 86 yards on the drive, is in the NFL. Quarterback Will Levis, who threw for 233 yards in the win, has opted out of the Music City Bowl to begin preparing for the NFL Draft. Running back Chris Rodriguez, who scored the game-winning touchdown, and linebacker DeAndre Square, who grabbed the game-clinching interception, are also not playing in the Music City Bowl.
Meanwhile, Iowa will start third-string quarterback Joe Labas in what will be his college debut. The Hawkeyes quarterback from the Citrus Bowl, Spencer Petras, is out with an injury, and its leading rusher, Gavin Williams, has entered the transfer portal.
“I think there are some things that they’ve done slightly different,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said. “I think the base of what they do, they’ve been doing it for a long time. So, I think similar to us. I think they could look at us and say there’s a base and a foundation that’s our core.
“That’s what we anchor into. They do the same. But there’s always tweaks and modifications. They’ve done that. They’ve adapted to their personnel this year. We’ve done the same, but that game last year obviously is sort of a good template to start from and then you build off of that.”
WINNING STREAK ON THE LINE
Kentucky enters the Music City Bowl with the nation’s longest active non-conference winning streak at 20 games. Included in that streak are four consecutive bowl victories.
The Wildcats’ last non-conference loss actually came in the Music City Bowl in 2017 against Northwestern. UK is 12-9 all time in bowl games and 4-2 in them with Mark Stoops as coach. Kentucky is playing in a bowl for a school-record seventh consecutive season.
Included in the bowl streak are wins over Iowa and Penn State, but Kentucky is just 30-37-4 all-time against the Big Ten Conference.
“I haven’t lost a bowl game here yet, and I don’t plan to start losing one now,” senior offensive lineman Kenneth Horsey said this month. “I don’t care who’s playing. I’m going to make sure I can do everything I can to make sure these guys are ready to go.”
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL INJURY REPORT
Where to start?
Levis, Rodriguez and normal starting cornerback Carrington Valentine have opted out of playing in the game. Square announced he would not play due to a lingering injury and “some personal reasons.” Seven Wildcats who played in the regular-season finale, including running back Kavosiey Smoke, tight end Keaton Upshaw and wide receivers DeMarcus Harris, Chauncey Magwood and Rahsaan Lewis, have entered the transfer portal this month. Tight end Josh Kattus and defensive lineman Kahlil Saunders will miss the game due to injuries.
With so many players normally part of the rotation unavailable, a host of freshmen who redshirted this season will be counted on for contributions in the game. Among them is quarterback Destin Wade, who might not start but will almost certainly make his college debut.
Quarterback Kaiya Sheron and running back JuTahn McClain will also be needed in expanded roles after backing up Levis and Rodriguez during the regular season. Replacing Square should be more manageable as weakside linebacker Trevin Wallace started the final four games of the regular season while Square was injured.
“We have the depth to certainly get through a game,” Stoops said. “It will be a little thinner, but it’s one game. We feel very confident in the guys that we have.”
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 14, Iowa 10: Las Vegas odds-makers have established the over/under for combined points at 31. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities that one team does not show up to the bowl motivated to play allowing this to turn into a comfortable victory for someone, but the smart money is on the under. Stoops and Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz both prefer a style that emphasizes complementary football and ball control. With two sub-100 offenses missing key players matching up against two top-20 defenses, expect both teams to go conservative in order to avoid turnovers and mistakes that might set up a short field for their opponent.
MVP: Barion Brown. I’m giving Kentucky the edge almost entirely because of the Wildcats’ advantage at wide receiver. Who throws the passes is a major question, but between Brown, Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key, Dekel Crowdus, Jordan Anthony and Brandon White there should be elite speed on the field to break off a couple of big plays. Brown is clearly motivated to have a big performance in his return to his hometown. More than 200 all-purpose yards are possible between his kickoff return opportunities and the likelihood of getting the ball in space on screen passes, even if the Wildcats’ quarterbacks are not ready to launch a bunch of deep passes.
The spread: Iowa was favored by 2.5 points as of Friday. Given the questions about both offenses, it seems fair to give the advantage to the team with the stouter defense. On paper at least, that is Iowa. The Hawkeyes rank fourth nationally in yards allowed per game (277.9) and sixth in points allowed per game (14.4).
Barion Brown all-purpose yards: 225
Iowa sacks: 3
Destin Wade total yards: 175
Game time: 2 hours, 50 minutes
THE LAST WORD
“Even this year, it’s not meaningless. People might think that I think it is because I’m not playing. Sure, if we were playing for a College Football Playoff spot, I’m probably playing, but this is an opportunity for so many guys to kind of prove for once and for all, last time this season, make a last impression. At least to prove to themselves and the coaches and everyone else in the world what they’re capable of and what this team is capable of. I know all these dudes that are playing are really pumped to show that and are really excited to play a really good Iowa team.”
— Kentucky quarterback Will Levis
