Kentucky football vs. Akron predictions: Will UK turn in a complete performance?
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Preview: Akron at Kentucky
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Akron football game at 7:30 p.m. at Kroger Field.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against Akron might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
The clock is ticking
An emotional week for the Wildcats means it is difficult to gauge how this team will perform following the “medical episode” that sent offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the hospital Sunday, but since Coen returned to practice the message has been clear.
“I think there’s definitely a little bit more of a sense of urgency,” Coen said. “We’d like to be able to get some of the early miscues and early mishaps and whatever it is out of the way.”
The good news is Kentucky is 2-0, but no one associated with the team is trying to pretend the performances against Ball State and Eastern Kentucky were up to the standard needed if this team is to contend in the SEC East. Akron represents the final chance to work through the early inconsistency before Southeastern Conference play begins.
“The big thing for us is just improvement and progressing,” UK coach Mark Stoops said. “It’s a long season. For me, I have to make sure you gauge that. You’ve heard me say many times that not many teams are going to play 12 great games to their potential. You have to be able to win when you’re not at your best.”
A road game at Vanderbilt next week looks on paper like a favorable matchup to open SEC play for Kentucky, but Vanderbilt did snap its long SEC losing streak against Kentucky in Kroger Field last year and will still represent an uptick in competition from the first three games.
Avoiding another slow start could be particularly important this weekend to set a tone moving forward.
“Obviously the deeper you are and the more talented you are you can overcome things,” Stoops said. “We have to play complementary football. When we’ve looked not as good as we can play this year it’s because we haven’t complemented each other.
“… We’ve got to improve in certain areas. I’m just looking to get better and improve. The scoreboard at the end of the day, you won’t care and I won’t care if it says W or L. It’s one way or the other.”
Devin Leary needs help
Like many of his teammates, quarterback Devin Leary has battled inconsistency through two games. He has shouldered much of the blame for the early struggles of the passing attack, but his receivers need to improve as well.
Leary is the worst in the SEC in dropped pass percentage (14.49%), according to advanced metrics website SECStatCat.com. Those drops were particularly noticeable during the first half struggles against EKU when the Wildcats failed to score on their first six possessions.
“That’s focus, that’s concentration, that’s detail,” Coen said. “That’s a lot of things that we’re trying to preach right now. It’s not just about the physical reaction of not catching the football. How is the route? How is your stance? How was your start? What was your mindset going into the play? Were you even thinking about the play or were you just thinking about your route? What was the coverage? Did you have your eyes up? Did you see the coverage? There’s a lot of things that go into just running a route. Ultimately, some of these young guys, we have to get to that point.”
Because they have played so much already, it is easy to forget wide receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key are just two games into their second season of college football. Tight end Izayah Cummings, who dropped a pass against EKU, is still raw as a pass-catcher after not recording a single reception last season.
“If they happen during the week, they’re typically going to show up on Saturday,” Coen said. “That’s the message, as well: It’s not going to just happen. If you don’t make the play during the week, it’s really hard for us to trust it’s going to happen on Saturday. So, we need that belief, we need to put that time in, that work in and the detail in in order for us to trust it’s going to show up on Saturday.”
Injury report
Right tackle Jeremy Flax, who was unavailable for the EKU game due to an undisclosed reason, will be back this week, Stoops said. Left guard Kenneth Horsey (leg) is expected to miss at least one more game.
Backup cornerback Jordan Robinson could make his season debut this weekend after missing the first two games with an injury.
“He’s been practicing for a couple weeks at a reduced speed,” Stoops said. “So, this week he seems to be at 100%, so hopefully you’ll see him.”
The closer-than-expected games through two weeks have reduced the opportunities to let freshmen see their first college action, but at least one 2023 signee will not be playing this year. In its weekly game notes, UK lists freshman safety Jaremiah Anglin as out for the season with a knee injury.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 38, Akron 10: This feels like the week where everything finally clicks for the Wildcats against an inferior opponent. Coen’s presence on the sideline should help after the harrowing start to his week, but more importantly the offense found a groove in the second half against Eastern Kentucky. There should be improvement from UK’s third-down defense, too, as Akron ranks 115th nationally in third-down conversions so far.
MVP: Barion Brown: It would be difficult to describe the start to Brown’s sophomore season as disappointing considering he has already returned a kickoff for a touchdown and set up another score with a long punt return last week, but he has not been immune from the dropped pass issue and still looks like a work in progress as a receiver. Leary’s go-to target is likely to change week to week this season. In Week 1, it was Key. In Week 2, it was Tayvion Robinson. It’s Brown’s turn for a big game as a pass-catcher.
The spread: Kentucky is favored by 25 points, according to Caesars Sportsbook. Kentucky has already won by that margin once this season (44-14 vs. Ball State). Both of Akron’s games have been decided by three points, but the Temple team that beat Akron in Week 1 lost to Rutgers 36-7 in Week 2. This is an opponent UK should be able to handle easily if it finds more consistency.
Over/under: The over/under for total points scored at Caesars is 49.5. Kentucky failed to hit that total last week in a 28-17 win over EKU when the over/under had been set at 61.5. Both Akron games finished with 45 total points scored. UK’s opener finished with 58 total points, but the Wildcats needed a defensive and special teams touchdown to pass the 40-point plateau.
THE LAST WORD
Coen on taking things easier after being hospitalized this week:
“I am actually probably at my calmest throughout a week during the game. I don’t know if you were one of our players that you would think that I’m a basket case on game day. You try not to be because ultimately our job as coaches on Saturday is to try to be a caddy. And try to be a next-shot mentality, next-play mentality. Move on from good, bad, ugly, whatever it was. So, I’ve always felt pretty good about where I lie on Saturdays. It may be some of the other days of the week aren’t the same.”
This story was originally published September 15, 2023 at 11:16 AM.
