UK vs. Murray State prediction: Can offense build momentum with Brock Vandagriff back?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game against Murray State might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Brock Vandagriff in line to start

UK’s bye week was filled with speculation that freshman quarterback Cutter Boley might be handed his first career start against Murray State, but UK coach Mark Stoops confirmed Thursday that normal starter Brock Vandagriff was in line to take the first snap after working his way back from a head injury suffered at Tennessee.

If Kentucky can take care of business against the FCS opponent, Boley is still likely to play for multiple series — along with a host of other young Wildcats — but helping Vandagriff build off an encouraging first half at Tennessee remains important for the stretch run and 2025 outlook.

“Finishing strong is important to a lot of our guys coming back,” Stoops said. “... If they’re moving on, if they’re going in the NFL, or trying in the NFL, or transferring or anything, it’s important to finish strong.”

The fact that Vandagriff had two seasons of eligibility remaining was always a selling point for Kentucky when they pursued the former Georgia quarterback as a transfer. The hope was he would immediately star for the Wildcats, but there was an acknowledgment that many transfer quarterbacks across the country have not totally taken the next step in their progressions until year two in the new system.

While Vandagriff was benched for the second half against Auburn, coaches appear to have gone all-in on him as the quarterback for the rest of the season since then. With little evidence Boley is ready to take over the job, the best-case scenario for the present and next season is Vandagriff continuing to progress.

A confidence-building game against an FCS team could help that goal.

Keeping the bowl streak alive

The math for Kentucky reaching a ninth consecutive bowl is at least easy. The Wildcats have to win all three remaining games.

This week’s matchup against Murray State looks like the only sure thing in that group with games at No. 3 Texas and against No. 22 Louisville looming. While the schedule means this week almost certainly won’t move the needle on the bowl hopes, the need to at least establish positive momentum before the trip to Texas is paramount.

Kentucky has now gone six weeks — four games and two byes — without a victory. That is a long time without the emotional boost of a win.

UK has never lost a game against an FCS opponent since the schedule permanently went to 12 games in 2002, but because of the size of the task at hand, a close win against a 1-9 Murray State team will not be enough. This has to be the type of decisive performance that can boost confidence for the more difficult tests to come.

“For as long as I’ve been around — the past years, me being in high school, me being here — just seeing Kentucky go to a bowl game,” junior wide receiver Dane Key said. “Like … it just happens. Everybody just knows Kentucky is going to go to a bowl game. So we gotta step some things up and make it happen.”

Kentucky football injury report

While Stoops announced Vandagriff was expected to play and earlier in the week revealed cornerback Maxwell Hairston was in line for a return after missing the last five games with a medical issue, he also acknowledged other injured players would not be at 100% by Saturday.

UK was without outside linebacker J.J. Weaver, inside linebacker D’Eryk Jackson, right tackle Gerald Mincey, tight end Jordan Dingle, cornerback D.J. Waller, defensive back Jantzen Dunn, outside linebacker Steven Soles, running back Chip Trayanum, defensive back Quay’sheed Scott and linebacker Jayvant Brown against Tennessee. With no SEC-mandated availability report for the nonconference game, the status of those players is not likely to be revealed until pregame warm-ups.

“We’re getting better,” Stoops said. “We’re still not anywhere near full strength, but I think mentally, you could see guys in a better spot, and we’re trying to finish strong.”

Kentucky vs. Murray State prediction

Kentucky 42, Murray State 7

It’s been a long time since UK’s offense has scored at will, but even the struggling Wildcats should meet little resistance against Murray State. This team is 1-9 at the FCS level and lost its only FBS game to date 51-0 to Missouri. Anything other than a blowout will be a disappointment for UK.

MVP: Jamarion Wilcox

After posting UK’s first 100-yard rushing performance of the season at Tennessee, Wilcox should get the lion’s share of the carries this week. His explosive play-making ability should contribute to a handful of long runs against the FCS opponent.

The final word

“I think it’s always the day-by-day. And I know you hear it as coach-speak sometimes, but, again, for us, it’s four quarters of playing, clean. Good execution, that’s the focus for this game. … One day at a time, and one game at a time.” — Hamdan on the team’s mindset down the stretch

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription