Kentucky basketball mailbag: Greg Brown, Paolo Banchero and other recruiting questions
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions regarding the future outlook of the Kentucky basketball team, and there were plenty of good ones to choose from.
The first wave of mailbag questions were answered Wednesday and centered on the current UK players and their stay-or-go decisions for this offseason. This edition of the mailbag will deal with the Wildcats’ recruiting efforts for the class of 2020 and beyond:
David on Twitter asks: In your opinion with everything coming to a halt, do you see all the guys that were leaving coming back? And with no AAU season, does that put a halt on the reclassifying guys that may come out after Peach Jam?
The NBA Draft and recruiting calendars have certainly been upended by the coronavirus pandemic. There’s a chance the lead-up to the draft could feature no NBA Combine and no individual workouts, leaving pro teams to make their picks largely off what they saw during the course of the college season and whatever background they collect on prospective draft prospects. I don’t think that will have much of an effect on Kentucky, which is still expected to lose Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans and Nick Richards, while Immanuel Quickley and EJ Montgomery could return.
The effect of the coronavirus cancellations on the recruiting calendar creates a much more interesting dynamic. Going into this spring, it was assumed in recruiting circles that No. 1-ranked junior Jonathan Kuminga and top-10 junior Moussa Cisse would both play out the Nike season and then reclassify to 2020 in hopes of playing college basketball next season. While I would still expect both of those players to ultimately reclassify, I was told this week that there have been rumblings of one or both returning to high school for another season. There’s also some buzz that Kuminga — the first recruit in the 2021 class to land a UK scholarship offer — might not play college basketball anywhere before embarking on a pro career.
Kuminga (a versatile 6-8 forward) and Cisse (a 6-10, 220-pound center) have both been major UK recruiting targets and John Calipari watched both of them play during this past season. Based on what I’m hearing right now, I wouldn’t expect either of them to pick Kentucky for next season (Cisse would be more likely than Kuminga at this point). And, while they could stay in 2021, I don’t think the disruption to the Nike spring schedule will have much of an impact on those particular decisions.
It’s important to note that major recruiting events set for later in the year — such as the Nike Peach Jam finals in July — have not yet been canceled and could still happen in some capacity. The shortened (or canceled, if that happens) AAU season could have an effect on reclassification decisions of other players that have been looking at possibly moving from 2021 to 2020, like big men Moussa Diabate and Franck Kepnang, but I don’t think that will be the case. I think most of these guys — and, more importantly in some cases, the people around them — have a pretty good idea of whether they’re going to reclassify or not, and we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with those decisions.
Greg Brown and Paolo Banchero
Tim on Twitter asked this one: Greg Brown — UK or elsewhere?
Put me down for “elsewhere” on Greg Brown, a top-10 recruit in the 2020 class and the only uncommitted player in that group with a scholarship offer from Kentucky.
Brown — a 6-foot-9 forward from Austin, Texas — has narrowed his choices to Auburn, Kentucky, Memphis, Michigan and hometown Texas, and he’s already taken official visits to all five schools. (A good thing, since the NCAA has banned all campus visits until at least April 15). Even though Brown and his father have said nothing but good things about UK, the Wildcats have never felt like the leader in this recruitment. Michigan might be the longest shot. Auburn makes sense as a landing spot, but it’s Memphis and Texas that have received most of the attention in recent months.
Rivals.com national analyst Corey Evans — one of the most trusted recruiting guys out there — changed his prediction this week from Memphis to Texas, noting that it looks like Coach Shaka Smart will be around again next season, despite five years in Austin with no NCAA Tournament victories. Brown’s father told the Herald-Leader recently that the family’s interest in the Longhorns was “1,000 percent” tied to Smart still being there, so that would seem to be one positive for the hometown school. Other sources have indicated that Texas could’ve still had a good shot even if Smart had been let go. Expect the buzz in favor of the Longhorns to continue.
Brown will announce his college decision April 24.
@kentuckyblue_4L on Twitter had this question: Do you really think Paolo Banchero ends up at Kentucky? Tennessee and Gonzaga may snatch him away.
It’s difficult to definitively say that a top recruit will end up at any particular school several months before he’s expected to announce a decision, but I will say that — if I were Kentucky — I wouldn’t trade spots with any other school in Banchero’s recruitment.
The 6-foot-9 power forward from Seattle is the No. 2 player in the Rivals.com rankings for the class of 2021 — he could move to No. 1 if Jonathan Kuminga reclassifies, as expected — and he’s become arguably John Calipari’s most important target in that group. Calipari (and his assistants) have combined to make several trips to the West Coast to see Banchero play and visit with his family since last fall. Of all the top recruits in the 2021 class, Banchero is probably the surest thing to make a major impact at the college level.
And, yes, I really like Kentucky’s chances. You mention Tennessee and Gonzaga, and those two schools certainly have a shot, but Duke and hometown Washington — where Banchero’s parents were both athletes — might be even bigger threats, and North Carolina is among the other programs that have recruited him hard.
There’s quite a bit of buzz in national circles favoring Kentucky’s chances with Banchero, and it was interesting talking to him about the possibility of playing for the Wildcats last June at the Top 100 Camp (where he earned MVP honors over several highly touted and older recruits). I asked Banchero then about the idea of going thousands of miles away from home for college. “I’m willing to go wherever,” he shot back immediately. Then I asked about his interest in Kentucky, which, at that point, had not offered a scholarship. He grinned and made an expression like, “Of course I’m interested in Kentucky,” before saying: “I mean, it’s Kentucky. You know, they’ve been putting dudes in the league, getting to the tournament, getting to the Final Four, championship, all that, for 10 years now.”
Getting Banchero on campus for Big Blue Madness last October — on the same weekend as a major USA Basketball camp — was a big deal, and he would’ve likely been the first player on John Calipari’s watch list if the first April evaluation period had gone off as planned. The Cats will have to wait a little while longer for more face-to-face time with Banchero, but they should go into this summer in a very good spot.
(And, no, I don’t think Banchero will reclassify to 2020 and play this college season. He’s been adamant about staying put in 2021. He also doesn’t even turn 18 years old until mid-November, which would make him one of Calipari’s youngest freshmen ever if he tried to make that jump).
Kentucky adding to frontcourt?
Noel emailed in this one: UK needs a true center from the transfer route or a high school recruit ... who is most likely?
This topic was a hot one among readers. One even suggested that UK “secretly” already had a grad transfer “locked up” for next season, a rumor that’s apparently making the rounds. (There’s no such secret commitment, for the record). That doesn’t mean the Cats won’t be trying to land another big man, and that doesn’t mean they don’t already have a list of possibilities.
While no names have publicly come out just yet, I was told this week that Quinnipiac transfer Kevin Marfo, the nation’s leading rebounder, could be one to watch. The 6-foot-8, 245-pound player who turns 23 years old in May would seemingly be a perfect fit for UK’s frontcourt next season, which should be high on talent but low on physicality.
Marfo averaged 10.2 points and 13.3 rebounds this past season, and if UK’s projected roster for next season is short on anything, it’s probably rebounding. All that said, as of earlier this week, there had been no contact between Marfo and Kentucky … yet. 247Sports national analyst Evan Daniels reported Tuesday that more than two dozen schools had already reached out to the New Jersey native, including Florida, Louisville, Texas Tech and several other top programs. He’s one to watch. There will surely be other names that pop up, and it does seem that — if Kentucky is to add an instant-impact big for next season — that addition would more likely come in the form of an experienced transfer than a high school recruit.
Any potential high school frontcourt players that commit to Kentucky for next season would almost certainly be prospects that reclassify from 2021, and UK already has two young incoming power forwards. What they could use more would be a Reid Travis or Kerry Blackshear Jr. type to add a little veteran physicality to the mix.
Another reader asked if a returning EJ Montgomery would be enough to solve any frontcourt gaps. It’s an interesting scenario that would make for an intriguing lineup.
Let’s say that Montgomery comes back — that seems more likely than not — to join a frontcourt that also features 6-9 freshmen Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware. The Cats have enough firepower on the perimeter — especially if Immanuel Quickley returns — that John Calipari could play three (or even four) guards at a time. That group could include Quickley, five-star point guard Devin Askew, elite shooting guard recruits Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke, and a returning Johnny Juzang. Add in Keion Brooks, a healthy Dontaie Allen and super-athletic freshman Cam’Ron Fletcher, and Calipari would have all kinds of options for a smaller, more dynamic lineup. Picture a starting five of Quickley, Boston, Clarke, Brooks and Montgomery, for instance. There are other possible combos, especially if Juzang takes an expected step forward.
Such a lineup would be able to get up and down the floor in transition, spread the floor in the halfcourt, possess plenty of length and athleticism defensively, and have terrific options off the bench to hit opponents with a second wave.
Rebounding and, to a lesser extent, post defense would be the biggest question marks with that group, but those concerns could be alleviated by the bigger guards hitting the boards and athletic wings like Brooks and Fletcher making plays off the ball. Montgomery has shown flashes of his rim-protection abilities, and Jackson is seen as one of the nation’s top post defenders.
The 2020-21 Cats would definitely be bolstered by a physical frontcourt presence — especially a veteran one — but Calipari could certainly make do without one if Montgomery and some of the others on this past season’s team come back and take another step forward.
Missing out on big men
Glynn sent this question via email: It seems like Cal has been struggling to attract elite big men in recent years. Why do you think this is? Are guys afraid that his system won’t showcase their talent? Or, does he have a reputation for being too hard to play for?
There have definitely been a lot of swings and misses with Kentucky and elite post prospects in recent years — certainly a higher rate than John Calipari is used to on the recruiting trail. There’s no easy answer as to why it’s happening.
Before we get into some possible reasons, let’s run down the recent list.
Over the past few classes, UK has missed on, in no particular order, James Wiseman, Isaiah Stewart, Vernon Carey, N’Faly Dante, Oscar Tshiebwe, Marvin Bagley, Mohamed Bamba, Wendell Carter, Harry Giles, Marques Bolden (and a few others).
Obviously, we now know, the Cats were never going to get some of those players. Memphis hired Penny Hardaway and landed Wiseman. Earlier connections in the recruiting process put UK at a major disadvantage for players like Dante and Tshiebwe. The Cats actually backed off Carter early when it was apparent he was going to Duke. Giles was also a Duke lean early on. Bamba’s previous connection to Shaka Smart definitely helped Texas, Bolden was indecisive until the end, and Bagley had an unorthodox recruitment that ended with a late reclassification.
Other circumstances led Kentucky to largely stay away from several additional talented post prospects in recent years. DeAndre Ayton, for instance.
That doesn’t mean mistakes weren’t made. It happens to everybody.
I was told at the time that Stewart probably would’ve committed to UK if the Cats had simply extended an offer earlier in the process — when it was already clear he was going to be an elite college player — to show he was a priority. By the time that offer came, months later, it was too late.
Carey is probably the most interesting case on that list. UK targeted him early and stayed active in his recruitment. Though the Cats never really looked like the favorite, they were always right there in the mix. He even worked out with Bam Adebayo, who talked up the benefits of UK.
The word following Carey’s official visits was simply that Calipari’s message for him didn’t resonate with the recruit and his family. The Cats were cut a short time later, and he ended up at Duke.
(It’s worth noting that neither Carey nor Stewart would have helped UK win a national championship anyway, due to the cancellation of this past season, and their presence could’ve very well hindered the feel-good story of Nick Richards’ emergence).
Looking at that overall list, Calipari has largely been a victim of circumstance when it comes to recruiting elite bigs. Another factor: in many classes, there are far fewer instant-impact bigs compared to, say, guards and wings. And we know Calipari largely targets those players that can make an immediate impact.
I don’t think any reputation of being “too hard to play for” has hurt Calipari on the recruiting trail, with post players or any other position. He’s recruiting guys that see the NBA as the ultimate goal. Most of those guys have worked hard to already be in a position to realize that dream before they get to college, and most know they’ll have to continue to push to make it happen.
There have been rumblings in recruiting circles that other schools use past examples to try and say Calipari’s “system” will hold them back. One is Karl-Anthony Towns, who was known as a perimeter threat in high school and was largely relegated to the post at UK (shooting just eight three-pointers in 39 games). Towns is now one of the NBA’s most prolific three-point threats. Any criticism of Calipari’s usage of Towns is a bit laughable. He was, after all, the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, and Towns has said that Calipari’s insistence that he work on his post game made him a better overall player in the end.
Another example of “negative recruiting” — and a more apt criticism — would be what happened with Skal Labissiere, who came to UK as arguably the top recruit in the 2015 class with the reputation of a finesse player who could do a little bit of everything. Calipari also tried to put Labissiere in the post — that season’s roster, with the departures of Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson, was thin on frontcourt physicality — and the results weren’t good. Labissiere’s game was predicated more on making things happen while facing the basket, and sticking him in the paint took away some of his best qualities. He seemed to lose confidence early on. By the end of the season, everyone pretty much agreed it hadn’t worked.
That was later used against Calipari on the recruiting trail, and perhaps it did hurt him with some post recruits, who increasingly — whatever their size or skill level — dream of playing larger roles away from the basket.
Any negativity over the Labissiere experience has been wearing off. Kentucky would have landed Wiseman if not for the Hardaway hire. The Cats look to be in a good spot with 6-foot-9, 235-pound power forward Paolo Banchero in next year’s class. And it’s probably safe to say that anyone with the background of developing players such as DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Towns, Cauley-Stein, Bam Adebayo and Nick Richards — along with the presence of Kenny Payne on the coaching staff — won’t miss out on top frontcourt targets much longer.
This story was originally published March 20, 2020 at 7:51 AM.
