New predictions for top basketball recruits equal good news for Kentucky (and the SEC)
Earlier this month, Rivals.com national basketball recruiting analysts Eric Bossi and Corey Evans launched their “Ranking the Contenders” series, an attempt to handicap the current favorites for all of the top high school prospects in the class of 2021.
Early predictions for each of the top 25 recruits in that class are now in, and it’s good news for the Southeastern Conference, in general, and Kentucky, in particular.
The Rivals crew has an SEC school leading for seven of the top 25 players in the class, more than any other conference. The Atlantic Coast Conference is next with five, followed by the Pac 12 with four and the Big Ten with three. No other league leads for more than two of the nation’s top 25 rising seniors, according to the Rivals projections.
Not only is an SEC school viewed as the current leader for seven top 25 players, but five of the league’s programs are represented, with Kentucky and Auburn each favored to land two top prospects and Alabama and Tennessee seen as the frontrunner for one each. (Texas A&M already has a commitment from shooting guard Manny Obaseki, the No. 19 player in the class).
Kentucky leads the way
Both of the players that Rivals.com has Kentucky leading for are ranked among the top five prospects in the 2021 class. Power forward Paolo Banchero (No. 2) and shooting guard Jaden Hardy (No. 5) are the duo perceived to be leaning toward UK, which could very well be headed toward another No. 1-ranked recruiting class despite extending relatively few scholarship offers.
Rivals has an SEC school leading for three of the top five players in the class and four of the top 10, with Auburn viewed as the favorite for forward Jabari Smith (No. 4) and Tennessee leading the way for point guard Kennedy Chandler (No. 10).
Of the remaining top 10 recruits, Duke and Gonzaga are seen as the favorites for two each.
The Blue Devils are the perceived leader for forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., the No. 1 player in the 2021 class, and they already have a commitment from No. 6-ranked prospect A.J. Griffin, a small forward.
Gonzaga is the favorite for 7-footer Chet Holmgren (ranked No. 3 overall), and Evans told the Herald-Leader on Tuesday that he would handicap the Zags as the top school for recently reclassified small forward Caleb Houstan, who was slotted into the Rivals.com rankings at No. 9 overall. Rivals has not posted a “Ranking the Contenders” story for Houstan due to the timing of his move to the 2021 class, but Evans said he would rank his favorites, in order, as Gonzaga, Duke, North Carolina, Arizona and Oregon. (He also cautioned that Houstan’s recruitment is a tough one to handicap, and it’s still early in the process).
The other top 10 recruits are No. 7-ranked Michael Foster, who Rivals pegs as a lean toward the G League; and No. 8-ranked Harrison Ingram, who Rivals projects as a Stanford lean.
Top 25 recruiting duos
Kentucky, Duke and Gonzaga are joined by Auburn and Stanford as the only colleges to be seen as the favorite for two top 25 recruits.
In addition to Smith, Auburn is the favorite for star point guard JD Davison, the No. 15 overall recruit in the 2021 class and the No. 3 player at his position.
Stanford already has a commitment from point guard Isael Silva (No. 23 nationally), in addition to its frontrunner status for Ingram.
No school is viewed as the favorite for more than two top 25 recruits, though that could change in the coming months, and Kentucky appears to be the likely beneficiary.
Combo guard Skyy Clark and forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield are the only two players in the 2022 class with UK scholarship offers. Both prospects have been open about their consideration of a move to the 2021 class, and Evans told the Herald-Leader recently that he expects both recruits to ultimately make that jump.
If they reclassify, Clark and Huntley-Hatfield would both almost certainly end up within Rivals.com’s top 25 rankings for 2021, and Evans has put in Future Cast predictions in favor of Kentucky for both players. UK also leads on the 247Sports Crystal Ball pages for both players.
Four commitments from top 25 players would put UK well on its way to another No. 1-ranked class.
The Cats were also listed second for Chandler — though Tennessee seems like a major favorite at this point — and UK was pegged as the third most likely option for No. 1-ranked Baldwin, behind Duke and Milwaukee, where his father is the head coach.
Baldwin, Banchero, Chandler and Hardy are the only 2021 recruits with UK scholarship offers.
Louisville’s recruiting class
U of L has cast a wide net for prospective 2021 recruits — a total of 27 scholarship offers, according to the Rivals.com database — but the Cardinals are not currently seen as the favorites for any top 25 players in that group.
Louisville was listed third — behind Indiana and Georgetown — for five-star shooting guard Aminu Mohammed, a Missouri native who is ranked as the No. 13 player in the class. Rivals didn’t put them in the top three for any other top 25 players.
The Cards are still off to a nice start to the 2021 cycle, however, with early commitments from No. 1 junior-college point guard El Ellis, small forward Bryce Hopkins (ranked No. 34 in 2021) and point guard Bobby Pettiford, the No. 149 player in the class.
Early signing period
The current in-person recruiting ban imposed by the NCAA in an effort to combat the spread of COVID-19 hasn’t had much of an effect on early commitments.
Despite the travel restrictions that have kept players from visiting college campuses and coaches from seeing prospects, six of the top 25 recruits in the 2021 class have already chosen their school, with high-profile commitments occurring on a regular basis recently.
The consensus in college basketball circles seems to be that the NCAA’s in-person recruiting ban will likely extend through the end of the calendar year — possibly longer — and that scenario would mean no more campus visits before the early signing period, which is scheduled for Nov. 11-18.
Despite these restrictions, top players keep committing to schools and cutting down their lists. It’s a fair expectation that more than half of the five-star recruits in the 2021 class will be off the board by the middle of November, whether they’re allowed to travel for campus visits or not.
Other notes
▪ Of the top 25 players in the class, Michael Foster — a 6-foot-9 power forward — was the only one who had the G League listed as the favorite by Rivals.com, something that is likely to change as this cycle continues. A total of four top 20 players in the 2020 Rivals rankings opted for the G League route, and that pro path might ultimately be Kentucky’s biggest competition for Jaden Hardy, arguably the top perimeter scorer in this 2021 class. Expect to hear more G League chatter for other elite prospects in the class.
▪ Evans noted in his write-up on No. 8 ranked Harrison Ingram that both Kentucky and Duke have been showing greater interest in recent weeks. That will be something to monitor as the 6-7 small forward from Dallas navigates his recruitment. Evans listed Stanford, Purdue and North Carolina as the three favorites so far.
▪ Star center Efton Reid has been linked to Kentucky — and the Wildcats have shown continued interest — but no scholarship offer has come, and UK likely has too much catching up to do even if it did jump all in on his recruitment. Evans ranked Michigan, Ohio State and Pittsburgh as the most likely favorites for the No. 24 player, a native of Virginia.
▪ In addition to being favored for the No. 1 player in the class (Pat Baldwin) and holding an early commitment from the No. 6 recruit (A.J. Griffin), the Duke Blue Devils were listed as the second-most-likely option for three other top 25 players: Paolo Banchero (No. 2), Caleb Houstan (No. 9), and 6-10 center Charles Bediako, who Rivals ranks No. 22 nationally with Alabama pegged as the favorite. It appears Kentucky and Duke will once again battle it out for the nation’s No. 1-ranked class.
