Post-summer recruiting rankings show an interesting trend for Kentucky basketball
Even with little summer basketball being played and college coaches prevented from hitting the recruiting trail, the practice of basketball rankings must go on.
The Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) — a longstanding website that creates a composite ranking using lists from several national sources — posted its first Top 100 list for the class of 2021 this week, and it shows a continuing trend for Kentucky basketball targets.
A few years ago, UK could be expected to be in the mix for just about every uncommitted player inside the national top 10 at this stage in the recruiting cycle.
There’s been somewhat of a shift from that over the past couple of years, partly by design.
The emergence of the G League’s newly expanded program for recruits — in addition to other lucrative preps-to-pros possibilities — is leading the Wildcats to be more selective, and the program can now be expected to look a little further down the rankings for its primary targets. UK has also been quick to identify prospects that would be long-shots to ultimately commit to the Cats, as well as those players who don’t necessarily fit the program.
The 2021 class is proving to be an example of these shifts.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. — the No. 1 player in the RSCI post-summer rankings — does list Kentucky as one of his top schools, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone in recruiting circles who thinks the Cats have much of a shot to land his commitment. It’s also unclear how much time UK, a school Baldwin has yet to visit, is still investing in his recruitment. Duke and Milwaukee — where his father is the head coach — are widely seen as the favorites.
Kentucky did not seriously pursue the No. 2 player on the RSCI list, Chet Holmgren, a uniquely skilled 7-footer who likes to play on the perimeter and would be an anomaly in John Calipari’s system. UK lost out on No. 3-ranked Paolo Banchero, who committed to Duke, and the Cats never showed ample interest in No. 4 -ranked Jabari Smith, who has acknowledged that he is considering a jump straight to the pros.
UK is still seen as a possible leader for No. 5-ranked Jaden Hardy, but other schools — UCLA, most notably — have emerged as potential frontrunners, and Hardy could ultimately decide to go the G League route. That’s a scenario that UK has been aware of for months, and it’s telling that the Wildcats have seriously targeted other talented backcourt players in recent weeks.
No. 6-ranked A.J. Griffin made an early commitment to Duke, and UK hasn’t been strongly linked to Caleb Houstan (No. 7) or Michael Foster (No. 8 and a probable preps-to-pros player).
Arguably the Cats’ top target at the moment is 6-foot-5 point guard Hunter Sallis, who is expected to play college basketball and is ranked No. 9 on the RSCI list. Closing out the top 10 is Aminu Mohammed, another player with seemingly no UK recruiting interest.
Instead of the top 10, the Cats’ most likely 2021 recruits are positioned further down the rankings. New frontcourt targets Moussa Diabate and Daimion Collins are No. 19 and No. 20, respectively, on the RSCI list. Small forward Bryce Hopkins — perhaps the most likely future UK commitment — is No. 33. And point guard Nolan Hickman, the Cats’ only 2021 pledge so far, is No. 43 in the national rankings.
That’s a pretty big change from even last year, when Kentucky was still seen as a legitimate contender for Cade Cunningham (No. 2 in the post-summer rankings), Greg Brown (No. 6), Scottie Barnes (No. 8), and already had commitments from Brandon Boston Jr. (No. 12 at the time and rising) and Terrence Clarke, who would be inserted into the top 10 once the rankings reflected his reclassification decision. But even then, UK was expanding its target list to include such players as Isaiah Jackson, Lance Ware and early commitment Cam’Ron Fletcher, who were all ranked outside the national top 20.
Focus outside the top 10
Jeff Crume, who has organized the RSCI rankings for more than 20 years, noted to the Herald-Leader that Calipari has been seriously targeting recruits further down the rankings, especially with this cycle.
Two years ago, at this stage in the 2019 cycle, UK was seen as the leader or a top contender for James Wiseman (No. 1), Vernon Carey (No. 2), Jaden McDaniels (No. 4), Isaiah Stewart (No. 5), Matthew Hurt (No. 6) and Scottie Lewis (No. 11), in addition to nabbing early commitments from top-10 recruits Tyrese Maxey and Kahlil Whitney.
In the 2018 cycle, UK went into the fall still seriously pursuing the top two players in the class — RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson — welcomed No. 4-ranked Bol Bol and No. 11-ranked Darius Garland to that year’s Big Blue Madness, and got an early commitment from No. 10-ranked Immanuel Quickley.
Preceding recruiting cycles looked much the same, with Kentucky going into the fall firmly in the mix for many of the highest-ranked players in the country.
If Calipari is indeed slightly shifting his pool of targets, it could bring a major continuity change to UK’s program, something a vocal portion of the fan base has been hoping for.
Several players from this season’s team are expected to be back in Lexington for another go-round this time next year, and bringing in recruits like Collins, Hopkins and Hickman — all projected as multi-year college players — could keep that continuity going after years of intense roster turnover.
UK will obviously still vigorously pursue one-and-done recruits that the coaching staff identifies as good fits for the program — like Sallis and, previously, Banchero — but one-year Wildcats of the future might more likely come from players with experience: graduate transfers.
Shortly before leaving for an NBA job last week, former Rivals.com national analyst Corey Evans told the Herald-Leader that Kentucky was building a reputation in recruiting circles as a destination for grad transfer big men. The Cats have landed Reid Travis, Nate Sestina and undergraduate-but-veteran transfer Olivier Sarr over each of the past three recruiting cycles, and — even though Travis and Sestina didn’t turn out to be NBA Draft picks — Evans pointed out they were given ample opportunity in their short time in Lexington, in addition to providing much-needed leadership to the team’s younger players.
With preps-to-pros becoming a more common route each year — experts expect the 2022 class to produce several such prospects — and a change to allow transfers to play for their new school without the penalty of sitting out a season expected to come soon, Kentucky’s recruiting approach could very well continue a shift toward still-very-talented-but-slightly-lesser-ranked recruits and instant-impact transfers. With a one-and-done high-schooler or two tossed in.
That transition to more roster continuity is a tough one to make. Recent instances of players transferring out of the program and making head-scratching decisions to turn pro — as well as prospects simply outplaying their recruiting ranking — are evidence of that.
But UK certainly appears to be making an attempt to take more of a step in that direction, and these latest rankings are yet another indication.
