What’s next for Kentucky basketball recruiting? Five big questions for the new year.
The last year brought plenty of intriguing story lines to the world of Kentucky basketball recruiting, from name, image and likeness reforms to the transfer portal to a major shakeup within the Wildcats coaching staff.
The new year is sure to provide more headlines in the never-dull UK recruiting landscape, with several interesting recruitments to follow as John Calipari reshapes his roster and plans for the future of the Kentucky program.
Here are five big questions for the new year, all of which will be answered in 2022.
When will Shaedon Sharpe play?
Calipari has been asked a variation of this question several times since Shaedon Sharpe officially signed with the Wildcats a couple of months ago. By that time, it was known that he would be enrolling in classes for the spring semester and joining the team for the second half of this season. As the No. 1-ranked recruit in the 2022 class — before he decided to enroll early and was reclassified to 2021 — there’s obviously been a clamor among some fans for him to play right away.
So far, there’s no clear answer on if he will. Calipari said Friday that Sharpe still had not joined the team, and the UK coach has continued to leave the door open to a debut this season while also acknowledging that the original plan was to sit this spring and play his first game next season.
“There has never been a plan to play him,” Calipari said after the High Point game Friday. “But let’s get him here and work him out and see where things are and see where our team is.”
A major factor in Sharpe’s decision to enroll early was to add strength to his frame before making his college debut, and Calipari has mentioned multiple times that he would need to get into college game shape before entertaining the idea of an early debut. So, don’t expect him to suit up right away. A few weeks from now? Maybe.
Sharpe’s status for 2021-22 will probably depend on how much this Kentucky team really needs him. At the moment, the team is winning and the backcourt is thriving. TyTy Washington is still projected as a lottery pick. Sahvir Wheeler is still leading the league in assists. After a slow start, Kellan Grady is heating up in a big way (20-for-31 from deep over his last four games). And Davion Mintz is making contributions off the bench.
If one of those core four guards is struck by injury or illness or a major drop-off in play against the tough conference schedule — and Sharpe shows in practice that he’s ready to go — maybe Calipari pulls the trigger on an early debut. There’s still plenty of time for it to happen.
Will any 2022 stars go pro?
In the 2020 and 2021 recruiting cycles, a total of seven top-25 recruits went the professional route, all picking the NBA’s revamped G League program. In the cycle before that, two five-star recruits — RJ Hampton and LaMelo Ball — went overseas to play pro ball instead of enrolling in college.
So far in 2022, zero top-25 recruits have chosen the pro route, with 23 of those players already committed to a college team and the two holdouts — Anthony Black and Yohan Traore — also looking like college leans.
Is the pro trend coming to an end? Probably not, but perhaps the landscape is shifting.
The upstart Overtime Elite program signed 27 amateur players for its inaugural season in 2021, with many of those prospects coming from relatively high spots in the 2023 class rankings. It’s early, but the Overtime league has been getting some positive reviews on the recruiting trail. Between the emergence of that program, which targets players who still have high school eligibility ahead of them, and the NIL reforms, which allows players to make money while still in college, the biggest loser here could be the G League’s Ignite program, which has zero commitments from the 2022 class after landing such star players as Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Jaden Hardy over the past couple of years.
NIL reforms have been particularly impactful. Before those changes went into effect, several 2022 stars — Keyonte George, Chris Livingston and Brandon Miller, to name a few — were viewed as possible-to-likely preps-to-pros recruits. Now, all three are signed with college teams, just like nearly every one of their five-star peers in the 2022 class.
Signed players can still change their minds and go pro, of course, and that’s happened in recent recruiting cycles. (Don’t worry, Kentucky fans, there have been no indications that Livingston is entertaining such a move). Maybe another player or two or three reverses course and joins the G League later this year. Or maybe — for the first time in several years — the top 25 recruits in a class will all stay in school. If the latter happens, it will be a major plus for college basketball.
Who will Kentucky land for 2023?
Reed Sheppard got things rolling with an early commitment in November. Who will join him in Kentucky’s 2023 class? The Wildcats have already cast a wider-than-usual net, with scholarship offers out to at least seven additional prospects in the junior class, including each of the top five players in those 2023 rankings.
Surely, some of those early targets will be Kentucky signees by year’s end. Combo guard DJ Wagner (No. 1 in the 247Sports composite rankings) and wings Mookie Cook (No. 4) and Justin Edwards (No. 16) might be the most likely future UK commits. Power forward Kwame Evans Jr. (No. 2) and small forwards JJ Taylor (No. 5) and Matas Buzelis (No. 12) are more difficult to read at this stage in their recruitments, while star wing Mackenzie Mgbako (No. 3) is still considered a Duke lean despite an early visit to Kentucky.
And there are plenty of other possibilities. UK will surely extend a scholarship offer to some centers, and Baye Fall (No. 6) and Isaiah Miranda (No. 32) are on the Wildcats’ radar. Star point guard Kylan Boswell (No. 11) is running the show at TyTy Washington’s former high school in Arizona and will be another 2023 prospect to keep an eye on. Texas power forward Ron Holland (No. 15) is also one to watch. More targets will emerge in the coming months.
Going into the year, Kentucky is expected to challenge Duke once again for the No. 1 recruiting ranking for 2023. Who ends up where will probably be determined in 2022. Speaking of that …
Will there be more early decisions?
After more than a year of no recruiting travel due to NCAA-mandated COVID-19 restrictions, colleges were once again allowed to host official visits starting in June 2021. Most of the nation’s top prospects wasted little time getting to campuses and making their decisions.
In fact, 93 of the top 100 recruits in the 2022 class have already made their college choices. Only two five-star players and five top-50 players remain uncommitted for next season. Those are pretty incredible numbers compared to years past at this stage. It’s going to be mighty interesting to see if that trend of early decisions continues.
If it does, that means it’s likely Kentucky will have its 2023 recruiting class pretty much intact by the end of this calendar year. All seven of those aforementioned recruits with UK offers have already been to Lexington on official visits, and a few others from the 2023 class have made unofficial visits to Kentucky. Those early trips indicate UK’s top targets are taking a proactive approach to their recruitments, and more early decisions could indeed be coming for the next wave of Kentucky recruits.
Getting a good start on the 2022 class helped the Wildcats’ coaching staff look ahead to 2023 and host star players from that group earlier than in the past. That could pay off with some nice early commitments for 2023, which could continue the domino effect and allow Kentucky’s coaches to be looking to 2024 and beyond by the end of this year.
Can Reed Sheppard make it to Rupp?
The biggest name in Kentucky high school basketball nearly made it to the sport’s grandest stage last season. Reed Sheppard and North Laurel came up one victory shy of a trip to Rupp Arena for the Sweet Sixteen, losing to Knox Central in the 13th Region title game.
The Jaguars are obviously aiming to get over that hump this season. With Sheppard leading the way, North Laurel is off to a 10-3 start, and Coach Nate Valentine has put together a schedule that will surely have the Jags as battle-tested as possible heading into the postseason.
So far, they’ve played in the King of the Bluegrass tournament — where Sheppard earned MVP honors — and Lexington Catholic’s annual holiday tournament, facing several Top 25 teams and some top out-of-state competition. They’re scheduled to return to LexCath on Saturday afternoon for a date with preseason No. 1 Ballard. Two days after that, they’ll play preseason No. 8 Madison Central. A few weeks later, they’ll play preseason No. 3 Covington Catholic.
North Laurel will also be back in the Lexington metro area for a Jan. 22 game at Scott County and a Feb. 5 date with Henry Clay at the Jock Sutherland Classic at Lafayette High School.
Kentucky fans will be hoping to see Sheppard in town again March 15, the first day of the state tournament at Rupp Arena.
