Who will reach the region finals? Predictions for every high school football playoff game.
Yes, the first round of the Kentucky high school football playoffs had more than its share of unbelievably lopsided games.
But those games get us to these games. And these games will decide who will battle for region championship trophies and semifinals berths in each of the state’s six classes the following week.
The overall field has been narrowed from 186 teams to 96, 16 per class, and it’s about to get real. The legitimate contenders for each state championship will emerge.
And while there still will be some blowouts, a good number of games will go down to the wire.
Here is a breakdown of one of the top games in each class along with my predictions for who will be playing for a region championship. All games are Friday and all rankings are from the KHSAA’s RPI Standings, which will be used to seed the east and west sides of each class bracket next week.
Class A
FEATURED GAME
No. 3 Hazard (7-4) at No. 8 Williamsburg (7-2), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Hazard’s Max Johnson makes plays on both sides of the ball as the leading rusher (1,464 yards, 15 TDs), second-leading receiver (501 yards, six TDs), and third leading tackler (74). Williamsburg is led by dual-threat quarterback Sydney Bowen (1,434 yards, 12 TDs passing; 993 yards, 19 TDs rushing).
Common opponents: Williamsburg took down Pineville 42-0 last month but lost to Sayre by two TDs in September. Hazard topped the Mountain Lions 34-6 last week and beat Sayre by four points on Oct. 14. Williamsburg lost to Somerset 38-28 on Sept. 23; Hazard beat Somerset 30-13 one week later.
Bottom line: It’s anyone’s game. Williamsburg’s home-field advantage as District 8 champion could trump Hazard’s better results against common opponents. Williamsburg had a bye week to prepare.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 18 Paintsville (5-5), No. 11 at Bishop Brossart (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 6 Holy Cross (Louisville) (8-3) at No. 4 Campbellsville (7-3), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 13 Frankfort (7-4) vs. No. 9 Newport Central Catholic (9-2) at Covington Catholic, 7 p.m.
▪ No. 5 Bethlehem (8-2) at No. 17 Crittenden County (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 20 Dayton (6-5) at No. 7 Kentucky Country Day (8-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 16 Harlan (8-3) at No. 1 Pikeville (8-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 12 Paris (8-3) at No. 2 Raceland (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Hazard, Paintsville, Campbellsville, Newport Central Catholic, Crittenden County, Kentucky Country Day, Pikeville and Raceland.
Class 2A
FEATURED GAME
No. 4 McLean County (9-2) at No. 2 Owensboro Catholic (8-3) (at Kentucky Wesleyan College’s Steele Stadium), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Zach Clayton leads the run-heavy McLean attack with 805 yards and 11 TDs while quarterback Brodie Cline keeps defenses honest with 535 passing yards and seven TDs to go with 579 yards and four TDs. In addition to throwing for 2,347 yards and 26 TDs, Brady Atwell is the Aces’ leading rusher at 543 yards and seven TDs. His chief target is William Carrico (743 yards, 13 TDs).
Common opponents: McLean beat Hancock County 21-14 and Todd County Central 42-13 and lost to Butler County 27-12. Owensboro Catholic beat Butler County 35-12, Todd County Central 47-37 and Hancock County 48-12.
Bottom line: These highly ranked District 2 rivals know each other well, and while the Aces hold the historic edge, McLean delivered a postseason upset in 2019 and could be primed to do so again. Cline threw two picks in McLean’s 40-6 loss to the Aces on Oct. 21.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 20 Carroll County (7-4) at No. 1 Beechwood (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 19 Martin County (7-4) at No. 11 Breathitt County (8-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 15 Somerset (6-5) at No. 7 Lexington Christian (7-4), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 22 Murray (6-5) at No. 3 Mayfield (11-0), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 21 Danville (5-6) at No. 6 Metcalfe County (11-0), 6:30 p.m.
▪ No. 16 Middlesboro (7-3) at No. 12 Shelby Valley (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 9 Lloyd Memorial (8-3) at No. 14 Walton-Verona (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Owensboro Catholic, Beechwood, Breathitt County, Lexington Christian, Mayfield, Metcalfe County, Shelby Valley and Lloyd Memorial.
Class 3A
FEATURED GAME
No. 10 Greenup County (7-4) at No. 8 Lawrence County (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Greenup’s dual-threat QB Tyson Sammons has thrown for 1,237 yards and nine TDs to go with 1,424 yards and 21 TDs rushing while running back Ike Henderson has tallied 768 yards and 10 TDs rushing; Dylan Ferguson leads Lawrence’s attack with 1,106 yards and 19 TDs rushing. Ryan Marcum and Cody Crum had each gained more than 600 yards on the ground with six and seven TDs, respectively.
Common opponents: Greenup beat East Carter 21-20, Russell 28-27 and Pike County Central 47-0 and lost 29-21 to Boyd County and 48-28 to Raceland. Lawrence beat Boyd County 13-10, East Carter 42-26 and 26-14, Pike County Central 48-8 and Russell 50-10 and lost to Raceland 32-7.
Bottom line: Greenup defeated Lawrence 17-14 way back in Week 2 after the Bulldogs fumbled on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line near the end of the contest. No mistaking this one as a payback game for the Bulldogs with the season on the line.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 18 Belfry (6-5) at No. 9 Ashland Blazer (7-4), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 16 Nelson County (8-3) at No. 2 Bardstown (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 21 Fleming County (7-4) at No. 5 Bell County (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 17 Paducah Tilghman (5-6) at No. 13 Casey County (8-3), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 7 Elizabethtown (8-3) at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 22 Estill County (7-4) at No. 4 Mason County (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 6 Hart County (9-2) at No. 3 Union County (11-0), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Lawrence County, Belfry, Bardstown, Bell County, Paducah Tilghman, Christian Academy-Louisville, Mason County and Union County.
Class 4A
FEATURED GAME
No. 14 Franklin County (6-5) at No. 5 Spencer County (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Kaden Moorman, the former Kentucky commit, has been working back from injury and had 95 yards rushing on six carries for a TD and 52 yards receiving on four catches with a TD last week. Christian Moore leads the Flyers in rushing with 678 yards and 10 TDs. Spencer County can run, piling up more than 3,500 yards of rushing offense with most of that from the three-headed backfield of Kellen Marksbury (1,038, 12 TDs), Wade Hutt (987 yards, 11 TDs) and Camden Cardwell (862 yards, 14 TDs).
Common opponents: Franklin County beat John Hardin 36-0 and Shelby County 42-19; Spencer County beat John Hardin 43-0 and Shelby County 56-28.
Bottom line: The Flyers have played a far more difficult schedule than Spencer County, taking losses to No. 1 Corbin, Class 5A top 10 teams Scott County and Woodford County and Class 6A’s Ballard. Spencer has a nice win over Class 6A No. 6 Bullitt East. A healthy Moorman could be the difference for a more battle-tested Franklin County.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 2 Boyle County (9-2) at No. 9 Boyd County (8-3), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 22 North Oldham (5-6) at No. 13 Central (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 8 Letcher County Central (8-3) at No. 1 Corbin (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 10 Wayne County (8-3) at No. 7 Johnson Central (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 29 Bourbon County (3-8) at No. 3 Lexington Catholic (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 15 Hopkinsville (6-5) at No. 6 Logan County (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 12 Madisonville (7-4) at No. 4 Warren East (11-0), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Franklin County, Boyle County, Central, Corbin, Johnson Central, Lexington Catholic, Logan County and Warren East.
Class 5A
FEATURED GAME
No. 4 Covington Catholic (9-2) at No. 1 Frederick Douglass (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Owen Leen leads the Colonels in rushing with 1,104 yards and 16 TDs. Quarterback Evan Pitzer has thrown for 1,082 yards and 10 TDs with favorite target Braylon Miller catching 511 yards of that and seven scores. The Broncos spread the stats around a bevy of top playmakers, including TJ Horton (552 yards, 13 TDs rushing), Davaun Hart (447 yards rushing 10 TDs), Tylon Webb (457 yards, five TDs receiving) and Cameron Dunn (426 yards, five TDs receiving). Junior QB Cole Carpenter has thrown for 1,366 yards and 16 TDs. Kentucky commit Ty Bryant plays both ways and has three punt return scores.
Common opponents: CovCath beat Conner 42-3 and Great Crossing 21-0. Douglass beat Conner 50-0 and Great Crossing 54-0.
Bottom line: Class 5A’s second round of the playoffs isn’t kidding around with CovCath-Douglass’s redux of their 2019 state championship game atop a list of several potentially great games. The tilt between Pulaski County and Woodford County has four players on the Herald-Leader’s list of potential Mr. Football candidates. The Broncos’ stifling defense could be the difference here. It has allowed the fewest points of any team in the state with 48, and all but 13 of those points came after the running-clock blowout margin (36 point lead) had been established.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 15 South Warren (6-5) at No. 5 Bowling Green (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 19 Atherton (7-4) at No. 11 Fairdale (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 2 Scott County (10-1) at No. 6 Highlands (9-2), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 8 Greenwood (9-2) at No. 9 Owensboro (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 23 Seneca (8-3) at No. 14 South Oldham (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 16 North Laurel (6-5) at No. 3 Southwestern (11-0), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 10 Pulaski County (9-2) at No. 9 Woodford County (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Douglass, Bowling Green, Fairdale, Scott County, Greenwood, South Oldham, Southwestern and Woodford County.
Class 6A
FEATURED GAME
No. 11 Madison Central (8-3) at No. 16 Paul Laurence Dunbar (6-5), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Brady Hensley leads the Indians in rushing (964 yards, 10 TDs) despite missing four games due to injury. Harrison Hagan is a threat to run or pass (1,181 yards, 19 TDs passing; 458 yards, two TDs rushing). Madison Central’s Jayden West (588 yards, 13 TDs receiving; five interceptions) has a knack for big plays on either side of the ball. Dunbar’s Cole Colony splits time at QB and running back depending on circumstances. He does both well (1,138 yards, nine TDs passing; 823 yards, 11 TDs rushing) Jakobe Biggerstaff (672 yards, five TDs) is the primary target. Mason Hayslett leads the Bulldogs with 78 tackles and has two picks at linebacker.
Common opponents: Madison Central beat Henry Clay 49-10, Lafayette 46-0 and lost to Bryan Station 35-7; Dunbar beat Henry Clay 22-19, Lafayette 44-6 and lost to Bryan Station 50-15.
Bottom line: In their regular-season meeting on Aug. 26, Madison Central punched in a touchdown and two-point conversion by Hensley for the 29-28 win with under two minutes left. This feels like a coin-flip game if all things are equal. The team with the fewest turnovers takes it.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 12 Ryle (6-5) at No. 3 Ballard (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 18 Tates Creek (5-6) at No. 5 Bryan Station (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 4 Manual (9-2) at No. 6 Bullitt East (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 13 Daviess County (7-4) at No. 10 Central Hardin (10-1), 8 p.m.
▪ No. 23 Meade County (6-5) at No. 8 Henderson County (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 9 Trinity (7-4) at No. 2 Simon Kenton (8-3), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 7 Male (7-4) at No. 1 St. Xavier (10-1), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS’ PICKS
▪ Dunbar, Ballard, Bryan Station, Manual, Central Hardin, Henderson County, Trinity and St. Xavier.
Reminder: The KHSAA website’s posted brackets in each class do not reflect next week’s regional matchups accurately at this time. Once all results are in, the brackets will be reset to reflect RPI seedings for next week’s respective east and west regionals.
This story was originally published November 9, 2022 at 6:45 AM.
