Predictions for every second-round Kentucky high school football playoff game
Forget last week’s plethora of mercy-rule blowouts. Kentucky high school football’s second week of the playoffs are where the real battles begin.
In Lexington, Class A No. 8 Paris will try to avenge its loss to No. 2 Sayre at this same stage last year. And Class 6A No. 8 Bryan Station must face a No. 10 Madison Central team it barely defeated three weeks ago.
That showdown on the Northside is one of more than a dozen potential “payback games” that pit teams who have already seen each other once this year. They include Class 5A’s blockbuster tilt featuring No. 4 Bowling Green at No. 5 Owensboro and Class 4A’s No. 6 North Oldham at No. 12 DeSales.
There will be upsets. A potential one could impact No. 4 Lexington Christian’s path through Class 2A as its No. 1-ranked team, Owensboro Catholic, faces the toughest second-round test of any top team when it hosts No. 5 Murray on Friday.
Here is a breakdown of one of the top games in each class along with my predictions for who will be playing in next week’s region championships across the state.
Remember, next week’s brackets will be redrawn based on RPI, so the brackets currently online at KHSAA.org aren’t real past this week. All games are Friday with times local to the host site. All rankings are from the KHSAA’s RPI Standings, which will be used to seed the east and west sides of each bracket next week.
My picks are denoted by an asterisk (*) and I try to predict the regional matchups for each class, too.
Class A
No. 9 Paris (7-4) at No. 2 Sayre* (11-0), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: The Greyhounds are led by Alex Koeder at running back (856 yards, 14 TDs rushing) and Elijah Webb at wideout (465 yards 7 TDs receiving). Cowan Preston leads all of Class A in tackles (117 with 5 sacks); Spartans QB Luke Pennington (2,158 yards, 42 TDs passing) has not thrown an interception this season. Charlie Slabaugh (557 yards, 9 TDs rushing) and Brock Coffman (1,147 yards 21 TDs receiving) are his top weapons. Sayre leads Class A in scoring (47.6 points per game) and fewest points allowed (3.5 per game).
Common opponents: Both teams had blowout wins over Fairview, Frankfort, Ludlow and Nicholas County this season. The Spartans shut out all four. Paris blanked only Fairview.
Bottom line: Like last season when Sayre beat Paris 38-12, there are questions about the Spartans’ strength of schedule, which ranks 13th toughest in Class A, based on its opponents’ win percentage (0.53160). Paris ranks second there (0.69148). Both are among the top teams in Class A in takeaways. Paris will need some to hang with Sayre’s powerful offense.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 18 Eminence (6-4) at No. 4 Raceland* (7-4), 7:30 p.m.
▪ No. 5 Hazard* (7-4) at No. 12 Williamsburg (8-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 22 Paintsville (4-7) at No. 8 Pikeville* (6-5), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 11 Bishop Brossart (9-2) vs. No. 6 Newport Central Catholic* (8-3) (at Dixie Heights), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 3 Campbellsville* (9-2) at No. 21 Russellville (6-5), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 13 Holy Cross (Louisville) (6-5) at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day* (8-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 7 Newport (8-2) at No. 14 Ludlow* (8-3), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 8 Pikeville at No. 2 Sayre; No. 5 Hazard at No. 4 Raceland.
West: No. 14 Ludlow at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day; No. 6 Newport Central Catholic at No. 3 Campbellsville.
Class 2A
No. 5 Murray (8-3) at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic* (11-0), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Nebraska commit Jeremiah Jones leads the Tigers in receiving (946 yards, 8 TDs), sacks (10) and tackles for loss (16). Junior QB Wyatt Robbins (2,366 yards, 23 TDs passing) also has Isaiah Martin (718 yards, 9 TDs receiving) as a primary target. Owensboro Catholic dual-threat QB Brady Atwell’s numbers are down a bit this season (2,452 yards, 34 TDs passing, 363 yards, 12 TDs rushing) but the Aces blew everyone out. Top receivers are Waryn Ebelhar (933 yards, 11 TDs) and Dereon Crowe (664 yards, 16 TDs). Vince Carrico leads the Aces with 109 tackles.
Common opponents: The Aces demolished Crittenden County 51-0 in the regular season, and 41-13 last week and they shut out Edmonson County 44-0. Murray had a little tougher time with both — a 37-27 win over Crittenden and a 48-7 win against Edmonson.
Bottom line: Owensboro Catholic faces perhaps the toughest second-round game of any No. 1 in the state. Murray will have to get over the big-game jitters it suffered in a 27-7 loss to Mayfield on Oct. 25. This could be a shootout.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 14 Caldwell County (5-6) at No. 2 Mayfield* (8-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 9 Washington County* (8-3) at No. 19 Monroe County (6-5), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 22 W.E.B. DuBois (5-6) at No. 4 Lexington Christian* (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 12 Betsy Layne* (9-2) at No. 6 Prestonsburg (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 7 Bracken County (9-2) at No. 10 Somerset* (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 18 Breathitt County (6-5) at No. 3 Beechwood* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 11 Martin County (8-3) at No. 24 Shelby Valley* (5-6), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 24 Shelby Valley at No. 3 Beechwood; No. 12 Betsy Layne at No. 10 Somerset.
West: No. 9 Washington County at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic; No. 4 Lexington Christian at No. 2 Mayfield.
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Class 3A
No. 4 Rockcastle County (10-1) at No. 7 Belfry* (9-2), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: The Rockets are led by Isaiah Jackson in rushing (1,059 yards, 12 TDs, receiving (211 yards, 3 TDs) and interceptions (4). Carter Powell (773 yards, 11 TDs rushing) is also a threat. Rockcastle leads the class with 43 sacks, 10 of those by Creed Gabbard; Belfry’s run-first option attack is led by Jeremiah Austin (1,211 yards, 13 TDs) and JB Woolum (780 yards, 15 TDs), but QB Chase Varney can’t be discounted (1,128 yards 12 TDs passing).
Common opponents: Both teams routed Estill County and Knox Central in similar fashion.
Bottom line: Home field and Belfry’s pedigree as eight-time state champs could be the difference. The Pirates’ offense has ground up about 1,000 more yards of offense than the Rockets.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 12 Lawrence County (8-3) at No. 2 Bell County* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 10 Lloyd Memorial* (9-2) at No. 14 Russell (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 19 East Carter (7-4) at No. 17 Lexington Catholic* (5-6), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville* (8-3) at No. 23 Mercer County (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 15 Garrard County (8-3) at No. 8 Central* (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 6 Adair County (10-1) at No. 5 Union County* (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 16 Franklin-Simpson (6-5) at No. 3 Hart County* (11-0), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 17 Lexington Catholic at No. 2 Bell County; No. 10 Lloyd Memorial at No. 7 Belfry.
West: No. 8 Central at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville; No. 5 Union County at No. 3 Hart County.
Class 4A
No. 8 Johnson Central (8-3) at No. 7 Covington Catholic* (9-2), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Running back Zack McCoart has 2,017 of Johnson Central’s state-best 4,308 rushing yards and leads the team with 28 TDs. Logan Music tacked on 874 yards and 12 TDs in the run-option attack. Seth Davis has 55 tackles and a team-high 8 1/2 sacks; Covington Catholic has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers: Dylan Gaiser (1,196) and Cash Harney (1,035). Both have 15 TDs. Tate Kruer leads the Colonels with 70 tackles and has three interceptions.
Common opponents: Both teams beat Boyd County by a score of 42-14.
Bottom line: Flip a coin. Both programs have state title trophies in the hallways and a lot of pride on the line. Whoever takes care of the ball better will win.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 16 Letcher County Central (6-5) at No. 1 Boyle County* (11-0), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 17 Wayne County (8-3) at No. 4 Corbin* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 21 Mason County (8-3) at No. 5 Ashland Blazer* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 11 Spencer County (8-3) at No. 2 Franklin County* (10-0), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 13 John Hardin (9-2) at No. 3 Paducah Tilghman* (11-0), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 10 Allen County-Scottsville (9-2) at No. 14 Bardstown* (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 6 North Oldham* (9-2) at No. 12 DeSales (8-3), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 7 Covington Catholic at No. 1 Boyle County; No. 5 Ashland Blazer at No. 4 Corbin.
West: No. 10 Allen County-Scottsville at No. 2 Franklin County; No. 6 North Oldham at No. 3 Paducah Tilghman.
Class 5A
No. 7 Highlands (9-2) at No. 3 Woodford County* (10-1), 7:30 p.m.
Stat stuffers: The Bluebirds have a balanced offense led by QB Rio Litmer (1,907 yards, 24 TDs passing). Jack White (556 yards, 2 TDs) leads a stable of rushers that have combined for 1,763 yards. Jackson Arnold and Adam Surrey have combined for 1,269 yards and 15 TDs receiving. Woodford senior QB Justus Wertzler (2,221 yards, 25 TDs passing, 234 yards, 3 TDs rushing) is having his best season. His top three receivers are Makhi Smith (635 yards 6 TDs) Jalen Johnson (537 yards, 5 TDs) and Omari Jointer (408 yards, 9 TDs). Dayvion Sturgis leads the defense with 90 1/2 tackles and a class-best 12 sacks.
Common opponents: Both teams notched blowouts over Collins and Dixie Heights, scoring 45 points and 49 points, respectively. The Colonels shut them out. Woodford allowed eight points to Collins and 14 to Dixie Heights.
Bottom line: The Yellow Jackets are due for a breakthrough this postseason with their most dynamic offense since Woodford’s 2021 run to the state semifinals. Highlands will not be a pushover, however. The win could go to the last team with the ball.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 13 Scott County (6-5) at No. 1 Cooper* (11-0), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 10 Madison Southern (5-6) at No. 14 Pulaski County* (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 19 North Laurel (5-6) at No. 16 Southwestern* (6-5), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 5 Bowling Green* (9-2) at No. 6 Owensboro (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 4 Graves County (9-2) at No. 2 South Warren* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 20 Moore (7-4) at No. 11 Atherton* (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 23 North Bullitt (6-5) at No. 12 Grayson County* (9-2), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 16 Southwestern at No. 1 Cooper; No. 14 Pulaski County at No. 3 Woodford County.
West: No. 12 Grayson County at No. 2 South Warren; No. 11 Atherton at No. 5 Bowling Green.
Class 6A
No. 10 Madison Central (6-4) at No. 8 Bryan Station* (7-4), 7 p.m.
Stat stuffers: Madison Central quarterback Carson Hurst (621 yards, 10 TDs passing, 292 yards, 5 TDs rushing) missed two games, including the loss to Station. He’s back and has help from running back Bryan Mathis (1,005 yards, 13 TDs). Sam Farmer leads the Indians with 106 tackles. Bryan Station’s Kalen “Jaws” Washington (1,547 yards, 19 TDs rushing) holds the key for the Northsiders. QB James Davis (1,190 yards, 7 TDs passing, 563 yards, 3 TDs rushing) offers some balance. Keelan Adams (75 tackles, 2 sacks) and Jordan Haskins (70 tackles, 4 interceptions) lead the defense.
Common opponents: The Defenders defeated Madison Central 14-10 on Oct. 25 in a home game not decided until the last two minutes. Both suffered similar losses to Frederick Douglass and both routed Tates Creek by identical 42-0 scores. But the Indians lost a head-scratcher 27-15 to George Rogers Clark. Bryan Station blew out Clark 38-3 a week earlier.
Bottom line: The last time Madison Central beat the Defenders, it came in a “payback game” in the 2021 playoffs. Each team had a pair of interceptions in their Oct. 25 matchup. Bryan Station got the final pick to help end it. The fewest turnovers Friday wins.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
▪ No. 20 George Rogers Clark (5-6) at No. 4 Frederick Douglass* (7-4), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 19 Ballard (5-6) at No. 5 Male* (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 18 Fern Creek (6-5) at No. 3 Trinity* (9-2), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 12 Barren County (9-2) at No. 7 North Hardin* (8-3), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 25 Central Hardin (3-8) at No. 16 McCracken County* (6-5), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 9 Great Crossing (8-3) at No. 1 Manual* (10-1), 7 p.m.
▪ No. 6 St. Xavier (7-4) at No. 2 Ryle* (9-2), 7 p.m.
@HLPREPS REGION FINALS PREDICTIONS
East: No. 8 Bryan Station at No. 3 Trinity; No. 5 Male at No. 4 Frederick Douglass.
West: No. 16 McCracken County at No. 1 Manual; No. 7 North Hardin at No. 2 Ryle.
This story was originally published November 11, 2024 at 9:47 AM.
