Predictions for every Kentucky high school football region championship game
Four Lexington teams remain alive in Kentucky high school football’s playoffs this week. None have easy paths to winning region championship trophies and continuing their pursuit of a state title.
Class 3A No. 17 Lexington Catholic (6-6), which began this season with six straight losses, might have the most daunting task. The Knights travel to No. 2 Bell County (11-1), a program that reached the state finals last year.
The Bobcats like to run. The ground game is two-thirds of their offense with running back Kaleb Miller going for 1,940 yards and 28 TDs rushing this season. But that could play into Lexington Catholic’s strength.
“They are a big, physical team and they’re great at what they do,” LexCath coach Nick Baisch told the Herald-Leader on Monday. “We’ve been successful the past few weeks against the run, but we haven’t seen what they have. They are kind of a combination of everybody we faced together.”
LexCath breezed through its Class 3A schedule after starting 0-6. Every one of those losses came to teams still playing in the third round in other classes.
“Our team has been very resilient this year,” Baisch said. “They could have given up and tucked their tail and been done with the rest of the season. But they answered it. They showed up.”
Class 2A No. 4 Lexington Christian once again faces a trip to far western Kentucky to face Mayfield at War Memorial Stadium. The West Kentucky Parkway has been akin to the Oregon Trail for the Eagles. Mayfield has ended LCA’s season each of the last two years.
Class A No. 2 Sayre doesn’t have it much easier even though the Spartans will host their region final.
Three-time defending state champion Pikeville comes to the Sayre Athletic Complex under-ranked at No. 8, according to the KHSAA’s RPI Standings. That’s thanks to its formula punishing the Panthers for losing to top-ranked teams in bigger classes and playing one out-of-state opponent..
But Pikeville quarterback Isaac Duty has started two state championship games and the Panthers can run it, too, with 1,121-yard rusher Brenden Anthony doing most of the damage.
Then there’s Class 6A No. 4 Frederick Douglass, who hosts district rival Madison Central and its mind-bending wing-T run offense.
The No. 10 Indians avenged a regular season loss to Bryan Station last week and will be looking to do the same against the Broncos, who struggled to a 21-14 win against them in Richmond on Oct. 11.
Below is a glance at this week’s region championships by class. All games are Friday with times local to the host site. My @HLpreps picks are denoted by an asterisk (*). Last week, I got 35 out of the 48 games correct.
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Class 6A region championships
No. 25 Central Hardin (4-8) at No. 2 Ryle* (10-2), 7 p.m. If Ryle can corral Central Hardin’s wing-T offense, it should cruise. After all, these Raiders put a running clock on mighty St. Xavier.
No. 19 Ballard (6-6) at No. 3 Trinity (Louisville)* (10-2), 7:30 p.m. The Shamrocks are unlikely to overlook the team they beat 20-0 last month. This game could be closer, but expect the defending state champs to handle it.
No. 10 Madison Central (7-4) at No. 4 Frederick Douglass* (8-4), 7 p.m. The Broncos spotted George Rogers Clark 14 points last week and still won by 29. They can’t do that against a Madison Central team they barely beat on Oct. 11. But if Douglass takes care of the ball, they win.
No. 12 Barren County (10-2) at No. 9 Great Crossing* (9-3), 7 p.m. The Warhawks shocked the world by knocking off No. 1 Manual last week. The Trojans seem less of a threat, but can’t be overlooked.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 4 Frederick Douglass at No. 3 Trinity; No. 9 Great Crossing at No. 2 Ryle.
Class 5A region championships
No. 16 Southwestern (7-5) at No. 1 Cooper* (12-0), 7:30 p.m. The Warriors have had trouble against high-powered offenses this season. And Cooper is all gas. The Jaguars should roll.
No. 23 North Bullitt (7-5) at No. 2 South Warren* (11-1), 7 p.m. The Spartans have the stingiest defense left in 5A and will be the toughest team North Bullitt has seen all season.
No. 11 Atherton (10-2) at No. 5 Bowling Green* (10-2), 7 p.m. The Purples are defending state champs with a ton of their offense back. While Atherton’s program has made great strides in the last three years, it’s going to have to make a huge leap to beat Bowling Green.
No. 14 Pulaski County (8-4) at No. 7 Highlands* (10-2), 7:30 p.m. The Maroons lost to Woodford County 31-22 on Sept. 20. Highlands trucked those same Yellow Jackets 55-38 last week. That math favors the Bluebirds.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 7 Highlands at No. 1 Cooper; No. 5 Bowling Green at No. 2 South Warren.
Class 4A region championships
No. 7 Covington Catholic (10-2) at No. 1 Boyle County* (12-0), 7 p.m. It’s a rematch of last year’s 4A finals, but the Colonels might not have any better luck in Title Town than they did at Kroger Field. The Rebels are ranked No. 14 in the nation and have won 32 straight games.
No. 14 Bardstown (9-3) at No. 2 Franklin County* (11-0), 7:30 p.m. Bardstown gave the Flyers a fight last season at this same stage before losing 37-29. This should be another great game, but Franklin County still feels like too much team for the Tigers.
No. 12 DeSales (9-3) at No. 3 Paducah Tilghman* (12-0), 7 p.m. No one in Class 4A has scored more or given up less than the Blue Tornado. Tilghman quarterback Jack James will go down as one of the most prolific passers in Kentucky high school football history.
No. 5 Ashland Blazer (11-1) at No. 4 Corbin* (11-1), 7:30 p.m. Both of these teams played thrillers against Johnson Central and won. The Redhounds did it as a road team, so give Corbin a slight edge.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 4 Corbin at No. 1 Boyle County; No. 3 Paducah Tilghman at No. 2 Franklin County.
Class 3A region championships
No. 8 Central* (9-3) at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville (9-3), 7:30 p.m. The Yellowjackets routed the two-time defending state champion Centurions 48-28 on Oct. 18, sending shockwaves around the state. Cortez Stone and his 1,821 yards and 30 TDs rushing were a big reason why.
No. 17 Lexington Catholic* (6-6) at No. 2 Bell County (11-1), 7:30 p.m. If the Knights can slow Kaleb Miller, they have a shot to pull off the upset and win their second straight region crown on the road.
No. 5 Union County (10-2) at No. 3 Hart County* (12-0), 7 p.m. Hart counters the Braves’ Jarren Johnson and his 2,004 yards rushing with three 1,000 yard rushers in Brenan Griffin, Christian Martin and Kameron Asbury. This should be a good one.
No. 14 Russell (9-3) at No. 7 Belfry* (10-2), 7:30 p.m. Belfry’s last six wins over Russell have all come in the playoffs and all been routs. This might not be a blowout, but the Pirates should win it at home.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 17 Lexington Catholic at No. 3 Hart County; No. 8 Central at No. 7 Belfry.
Class 2A Region Championships
No. 19 Monroe County (7-5) at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic* (12-0), 7 p.m. It doesn’t look like much can stop Brady Atwell and the Aces from getting back to Kroger Field. The Western Kentucky baseball commit has thrown for 2,883 yards and 41 TDs and rushed for 488 yards and 16 TDs.
No. 4 Lexington Christian (10-2) at No. 2 Mayfield* (9-2), 6 p.m. Will the third try be the charm for the Eagles at War Memorial? LCA has surprised with Saxton Howard as a dual-threat quarterback (1,149 yards, 13 TDs passing; 756 yards, 18 TDs rushing). This Mayfield team is almost completely new, too, but tradition doesn’t graduate.
No. 11 Martin County (9-3) at No. 3 Beechwood* (11-1), 7 p.m. Last year, this matchup went 55-0 to the Tigers at this same stage. Facing Beechwood in Fort Mitchell is not the way to go.
No. 10 Somerset* (8-4) at No. 6 Prestonsburg (11-1), 7:30 p.m. Both teams defeated Leslie County this season. The Briar Jumpers did so in a 55-13 rout on Oct. 25. Prestonsburg squeaked by 22-19 in its season opener. Somerset by a hare.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 10 Somerset at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic; No. 3 Beechwood at No. 2 Mayfield.
Class A region championships
No. 7 Newport (9-2) at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day* (9-2), 7:30 p.m. This is Newport’s first region final since 2014. KCD won a region title last year but returned just five starters. Still, edge to the home team with significant postseason experience.
No. 8 Pikeville* (7-5) at No. 2 Sayre (12-0), 7 p.m. For the last three years, Pikeville hasn’t just been better than every other Class A team, it’s been on another plane of existence. It’s time for someone to knock them off, but it’s going to take everything the Spartans have to do it.
No. 6 Newport Central Catholic* (9-3) at No. 3 Campbellsville (10-2), 7 p.m. This is a rematch of last season’s region final, a 28-23 Campbellsville win. The Thoroughbreds have 14 starters back and will be looking to make amends.
No. 5 Hazard (8-4) at No. 4 Raceland* (8-4), 7:30 p.m. Two of Hazard’s losses this season came to Pikeville and Raceland, the top dogs of the division over the last two years. The Rams hung a 42-8 loss on Hazard on Oct. 4. A Bulldogs road win here would be a shocker.
Next week’s final four forecast: No. 8 Pikeville at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day; No. 6 Newport Central Catholic at No. 4 Raceland.
This story was originally published November 20, 2024 at 7:00 AM.
