Road to the Girls’ Sweet 16: Biggest stars, toughest regions, favorites to win it all.
Kentucky’s high school girls’ basketball postseason tips off Monday as we begin finding out who will contend for the Mingua Beef Jerky/KHSAA Girls’ Sweet Sixteen state championship next month in Rupp Arena.
In all, 64 girls’ district tournaments will be played and two teams from each will head to their region brackets. Only one team from each region can make the Sweet Sixteen.
So, who will make it to Rupp? Here’s a look at the field.
Defending state champ
No. 3 Ryle (16-11): The first thing that jumps out about Ryle is the loss column. But let’s look: two losses to No. 1 Sacred Heart, losses to out-of-state powers, including MaxPreps top 10s Mount Notre Dame (Ohio) and Lake Highland Prep (Fla.) and an early loss to No. 2 Simon Kenton when Oregon commit and Miss Basketball candidate Maddie Scherr was hurt. She’s healthy. And her team has been using its ridiculously tough schedule to get ready for now. Junior Brie Crittendon matches Scherr point for point. So, look out.
Star power
If you like to see Rupp Arena as the stage for the game’s next set of college stars, here’s a few to root for in the early rounds, including some dynamic sets of teammates.
No. 3 Ryle’s Maddie Scherr (Oregon): With a Gatorade Player of the Year, a McDonald’s All-American honor and a state championship already on her resume, the only things left are a Miss Basketball title and another crown for this gritty, 5-foot-11 do-everything guard. The Raiders’ all-time leading scorer is averaging 15.8 points and 7.8 rebounds this season.
No. 1 Sacred Heart’s Erin Toller (Kentucky), Destinee Marshall (Radford) and Kristen Clemons (Belmont volleyball): Toller’s brilliance this season (16.4 ppg, 39.5% from three-point range and 5.7 rpg), has proved the potential seen in her despite two years of ACL tears, one in each knee. Having Marshall and the crazy-talented Clemons as alternate weapons makes the Valkyries almost seem unfair. But too bad.
No. 8 Scott County’s Malea Williams (undeclared) and Morgan DeFoor (Morehead State): As good an inside-out combo as any in the state with the ability to put up monster point totals in the Cards’ high-powered offense. Williams averages 18.9 points and 13.5 rebounds and has developed a three-point shot. DeFoor pours in 22.5 per game and her range begins at the gym door.
No. 17 South Laurel’s Ally Collett (Western Kentucky) and Amerah Steele (Eastern Kentucky): Collett appears recovered from a midseason PCL tear, scoring 15 and 19 points in her two games back. Meanwhile, Steele has upped her game. Both average nearly 20 points per contest.
No. 19 Mercy’s Taziah Jenks (West Virginia) and Sivori Hope (undeclared): This point guard-post pair averages just over 19 points per game each and Jenks pulls in 10 rebounds per game. Like Scott County, they’re looking to make their third straight trip to state where they were 2018 finalists.
Clark County’s Kennedy Igo (Northern Kentucky): The Cardinals’ 5-7 point guard has seemingly been around forever because she’s been an all-region player since seventh grade. Coach Robbie Graham calls her “tough as nails,” and she’s a big reason why Clark could make its fourth straight trip to state.
Meade County’s Kendall Wingler (Eastern Kentucky): Wingler leads the state, boys and girls, in scoring with nearly 32 points per game. And she shoots it at a 45.9 percent clip from three.
Shelby Valley’s Cassidy Rowe (Kentucky): Another UK commit who suffered an ACL tear in each knee, Rowe is still in recovery mode from her June injury. But the sophomore has shown flashes she’s on her way back, including a 5-for-5 three-point night against Jenkins this month.
Toughest regions
Powerful girls’ teams are better dispersed among their districts than the boys, so it’s the regional round where we really see some top potential matchups. Here are some of this year’s toughest to win with their contending teams’ Cantrall top 25 ranking and (Cantrall Rating).
7th Region — No. 1 Sacred Heart (86.1); No. 5 Christian Academy-Louisville (83.6); No. 5 Assumption (83.6); No. 12 Manual (82.1).
5th Region — No. 10 Bethlehem (82.7); No. 14 Elizabethtown (81.8); Bardstown (79.2); Marion County (72.8).
9th Region — No. 3 Ryle (85.2); No. 18 Notre Dame (81.3); No. 21 Highlands (80.8); No. 25 Conner (79.4); Dixie Heights (75.6).
12th Region — No. 13 Casey County (82.0); No. 14 Mercer County (81.8); No. 14 Southwestern (81.8); Rockcastle County (79.2).
Region by region
Looking at the Herald-Leader’s Cantrall Ratings, here are the teams favored to be reach Rupp:
1st Region: Graves County (23-5). Losses this month to Marshall County (20-9) and Calloway County (16-10) mean the Eagles’ hold on the 1st is not assured. Calloway has Miss Basketball candidate Charlee Settle, a Murray State commit.
2nd Region: No. 11 Henderson County (19-6). A 17-0 start by No. 19 Madisonville (25-1) upset the region’s apple cart for a while but it was the Colonels who handed the Maroons their only loss — by 14 points. Henderson has missed the Sweet Sixteen three times in the last 15 years.
3rd Region: Meade County (16-11). Meade’s record is suspect, but given it has Kendall Wingler’s 30-plus per game, it gets the nod. Owensboro Catholic (19-10) made a run to the state semis last year and has Murray State commit Hannah McKay back.
4th Region: No. 21 Bowling Green (23-6). The Purples look to be the class of the field here, but fell to Russell County (22-7) by a point Thursday. They’ve beaten the next best, Barren County (23-6), by double digits twice.
5th Region: No. 10 Bethlehem (26-3). This year’s All “A” Classic champion stunned No. 14 Elizabethtown (21-5) in last year’s region finals and has its top scorers, juniors Amelia Hodges (16.3 ppg) and Ella Thompson (17.3 ppg), back from that squad. E-town has Belmont commit Whitney Hay (19.4 ppg). The two teams have not faced each other this season.
6th Region: No. 4 Bullitt East (19-6). With three top 25 teams here along with No. 7 Butler (23-4) and No. 19 Mercy (17-11), it’s anyone’s guess as to who will come out. Mercy has the experience, but also has a loss to Butler on Jan. 17. Bullitt East split with the Bearettes and lost big to Mercy.
7th Region: No. 1 Sacred Heart (27-1). The award for the most ridiculously loaded region goes here, but the Valkyries look to be the best of the best with wins over everyone but a MaxPreps top 25 team from Atlanta (Westlake). Could No. 5 Christian Academy-Louisville (20-7), No. 5 Assumption (17-10) or No. 12 Manual (21-7) pull an upset? Absolutely. Will they?
8th Region: No. 2 Simon Kenton (26-3). When the Pioneers protect the ball, they are as good as anyone. They can really defend and have four double-figure scorers led by Maggie Jones and Mattie Vickers. Anderson County (24-5) has impressive wins over No. 19 Mercy and No. 14 Mercer County, but also a holiday-break loss to No. 14 Elizabethtown, a team Simon Kenton handled easily.
9th Region: No. 3 Ryle (16-11). The Raiders staked their claim here with wins over the 9th’s other top teams, No. 18 Notre Dame (21-6), No. 21 Highlands (18-10) and No. 25 Conner (19-10), in the last month. Only Highlands kept it close.
10th Region: Clark County (17-10). The defending champion Cardinals have lost to some of their chief chasers this season. Paris (24-5), Campbell County (18-11) and Bishop Brossart (23-4) all have all notched their belts. Now, it’s time to do it when it counts against the back-to-back-to-back title holders.
11th Region: No. 8 Scott County (24-6). Scott County rolled to 16 straight wins until a hiccup this week. Still, rivals Franklin County (21-7) and Paul Laurence Dunbar (19-8) feel a year away, especially with Lady Flyers forward Patience Laster out the last few games.
12th Region: No. 13 Casey County (22-6). Casey County grabbed everyone’s attention when it beat Christian Academy-Louisville on Jan. 24, but the Lady Rebels recently tripped up against No. 14 Mercer County (20-7). Last year’s state runner-up, No. 14 Southwestern (22-5), is also lurking.
13th Region: South Laurel (21-5). With Collett back, there looked be a clear path for the Cardinals. Nearest competitor North Laurel (24-4) lost to Hazard the same week the Cardinals beat the Bulldogs by 15. Then the Jaguars routed No. 8 Scott County Thursday.
14th Region: Letcher County Central (20-10). The Lady Cougars with leading scorer Kaylee Banks (16 ppg) have not been to the Sweet Sixteen since 2015 and they’ve already been beaten twice this year by Knott County Central (17-11), the three-time defending region champ. It could be a wide-open race with Wolfe County (23-5) and Owsley County (20-8) also a threat.
15th Region: Pikeville (21-6). The Panthers’ closest competition appears to be Shelby Valley (17-8), who they’ve beaten in two of their three meetings. Kirsten Cole-Williamson leads Pikeville with 17.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.
16th Region: Russell (21-8). Russell has the edge in the ratings, but just took a shellacking from Boyd County (16-10) and lost to West Carter (17-7) Thursday. Another wide-open region that could see any of five teams win it, including Ashland Blazer (18-9) and Rowan County (19-9).
Predictions
For entertainment purposes only, here are some picks. Your opinions may vary.
Sweet Sixteen semifinals: Ryle vs. Simon Kenton; Mercy vs. Sacred Heart.
Finals: Ryle vs. Sacred Heart.
Champion: Sacred Heart.
Girls’ Sweet Sixteen
When: March 11-15
Where: Rupp Arena
View the bracket: https://bit.ly/2wBhRr8
District tournament brackets
1ST REGION
1st District at Hickman County
2nd District at McCracken County
4th District at Marshall County
2ND REGION
6th District at Webster County
8th District at Christian County
3RD REGION
9th District at Owensboro Sportscenter
10th District at McLean County
12th District at Grayson County
4TH REGION
15th District at Allen County-Scottsville
16th District at Russell County
5TH REGION
19th District at Nelson County
20th District at Taylor County
6TH REGION
7TH REGION
28th District at Christian Academy-Louisville
8TH REGION
29th District at Trimble County Jr./Sr. High
30th District at Anderson County
31st District at Gallatin County
9TH REGION
34th District at Dixie Heights
35th District at Covington Holy Cross
10TH REGION
37th District at Campbell County Middle School
38th District at Pendleton County
39th District at Bracken County
11TH REGION
41st District at Franklin County
44th District at Eastern Kentucky University
12TH REGION
45th District at Lincoln County
46th District at East Jessamine
47th District at Rockcastle County
13TH REGION
49th District at Jackson County
50th District at Whitley County
52nd District at Harlan County
14TH REGION
53rd District at Alice Lloyd College
54th District at Leslie County
55th District at Breathitt County
56th District at Powell County
15TH REGION
57th District at Martin County
59th District at Jenkins Middle School
16TH REGION
62nd District at Elliott County
63rd District to be announced
64th District at Boyd County Middle School
This story was originally published February 21, 2020 at 6:55 AM.
