Road to the Boys’ Sweet 16: Biggest stars, toughest regions, favorites to win it all.
Kentucky’s high school boys’ basketball’s postseason tips off Monday as we begin finding out who will contend for the Whitaker Bank/KHSAA Boys’ Sweet Sixteen championship next month in Rupp Arena.
In all, 64 boys’ district tournaments will be played and two teams from each will head to their region brackets. Only one team from each region can make the Sweet Sixteen.
So, who will make it to Rupp? Here’s a look at the field.
Defending state champ
Trinity (16-14): The new season has not been kind to Coach Mike Szabo’s Shamrocks. With just one senior on the roster and the core that took them to the 2019 state crown graduated, this year has been one to build on. Don’t expect it to take long.
Star power
If you like to see Rupp Arena as the stage for the game’s next set of college stars, here’s a few to root for in the early rounds:
No. 20 Bardstown’s JJ Traynor (Louisville): A four-star prospect who committed to the Cardinals ahead of this season, this 6-foot-8 forward averages 19.8 points and 11.1 rebounds and is rated the top 2020 recruit in the state, according to 247Sports.com. One of 17 Mr. Basketball candidates, he shared 5th Region player of the year honors with John Hardin’s Alex Matthews.
Marshall County’s Zion Harmon (Undeclared): Harmon already has a state title with Bowling Green and is regarded as the top junior in the state and the nation’s fifth-best point guard prospect. Will shoot from anywhere and averages 26.1 points per game.
No. 19 Collins’ Dayvion McKnight (Western Kentucky): Collins has taken some lumps playing a difficult schedule in the Louisville area, but McKnight has been stellar, averaging 20.3 points and 8.5 rebounds alongside Samford commit Marcellus Vail. McKnight was the coaches’ pick as the Herald-Leader preseason’s No. 1 player.
No. 5 Madisonville’s Kenny White (Tennessee Tech): White wowed in Rupp last year and has put up some great stats this season on the way to 2nd Region player of the year honors and a Mr. Basketball nomination with 19 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.
No. 3 Henry Clay’s Marques Warrick (Northern Kentucky): Warrick broke Henry Clay’s all-time scoring record Wednesday and has turned up huge in wins over the likes of Ballard (34 points) and John Hardin (33 points) this month. He averages 22.5 points per game.
Toughest districts
Some of your toughest competition can be right next door. Here are some of this year’s brutal districts with teams ranking in Dave Cantrall’s Rating the State (if in top 25) and their (Cantrall Rating). If you’re wondering, yes, this is why two teams make it out of districts to the regional.
14th District — Bowling Green (74.4), Greenwood (67.3), South Warren (65.2), No. 11 Warren Central (79.7), Warren East (44.3).
17th District — Central Hardin (64.9), No. 7 Elizabethtown (80.9), Fort Knox (40.4), No. 5 John Hardin (81.5), North Hardin (63.9).
29th District — North Oldham (68.4), No. 18 Oldham County (77.0), No. 17 South Oldham (77.1), Trimble County (41.5).
42nd District — Bryan Station (64.6), Frederick Douglass (71.3), No. 3 Henry Clay (82.3), Sayre (56.3), Scott County (73.8).
40th District — Bourbon County (73.7), Clark County (71.1), Montgomery County (64.5), Paris (53.3).
43rd District — Lafayette (67.9), No. 9 Lexington Catholic (80.5), Lexington Christian (67.5), Paul Laurence Dunbar (70.7), Tates Creek (72.2).
Region breakdown
Looking at the Herald-Leader’s Cantrall Ratings, here are the teams favored to make it to Rupp.
1st Region: No. 12 McCracken County (25-5). The Mustangs have 1st Region Player of the Year Jackson Sivills and his 21.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Marshall County (19-10) and junior phenom Harmon could pull an upset, but they are 0-2 against McCracken.
2nd Region: No. 5 Madisonville (26-3). The Maroons could be the scariest team in the field. White is supported by the intimidating post presence of double-double machine Ksuan Casey. Their closest 2nd Region competitors, University Heights and Webster County, don’t look to be a threat.
3rd Region: Owensboro (16-10). Cantrall gives the nod to defending champ Owensboro to make a return to Lexington, but the KHSAA’s RPI favors Ohio County. The Eagles have a better record at 22-7, but one of their losses was to the Red Devils. Three Owensboro players average double-figure scoring, led by senior Jaiden Greathouse.
4th Region: No. 11 Warren Central (21-6). With No. 24 Logan County (25-3) also in this region and Bowling Green (22-6) as a district rival, the Dragons aren’t locks. Dre Boyd is a Mr. Basketball candidate leading three Dragons in double figures with 18.4 points per game.
5th Region: No. 5 John Hardin (27-2). Even with Mr. Basketball candidate Alex Matthews, it’s not going to be easy for the Bulldogs with No. 7 Elizabethtown (23-2) and No. 20 Bardstown (20-8) in the way. John Hardin and E-town split the season series with each winning on their home floor. Bardstown lost to John Hardin by five points on Feb. 11, but has the region’s other player of the year in Louisville commit JJ Traynor.
6th Region: No. 10 Fern Creek (22-6). The Tigers’ junior tandem of Jaden Rogers (16.6 ppg) and Zek Montgomery (15.6 ppg) have Fern Creek riding a nine-game win streak. Five of their losses have come to Louisville rivals. No. 15 Butler (17-8) was not among those defeats and will be looking to avenge its regular-season loss with Mr. Basketball candidate Trey Minter (15.4 ppg) leading the charge.
7th Region: No. 1 Male (25-4). The Bulldogs have been unstoppable of late, especially since getting back Howard Fleming this month from injury. He’s averaging 15.6 points to go along with Tyren Moore (18.5), Kaleb Glenn (13.5) and Jake Evans (10.8). This is looking like a team that was voted the Herald-Leader preseason No. 1. No. 4 Ballard (23-6) and No. 23 Eastern (19-9) still figure to have a say, though.
8th Region: No. 17 South Oldham (21-8). The Dragons come out marginally ahead in the ratings despite losses to both No. 18 Oldham County (26-3) and No. 19 Collins (21-7). So, throw that out. It’s anyone’s to win. Imagine if still-dangerous North Oldham (15-12) hadn’t lost Auburn commit Justin Powell to injury at the Christmas break. Whoever survives the 8th will be dangerous.
9th Region: No. 2 Covington Catholic (23-5). The 9th might be the toughest region to escape, but the 2018 state champs still look to be the favorites to go for their third region crown in a row. The Colonels have handed blowout losses to each of their chasers in the regular season, including No. 8 Conner (20-5), No. 21 Highlands (23-3), No. 25 St. Henry (21-4) and highly regarded Beechwood (20-9).
10th Region: Bourbon County (24-5). Bourbon County and Clark County (22-7) are district and region rivals, setting up the potential for a payback scenario if they meet twice in the postseason. Both teams defended their home court against each other and seem aimed at the 40th District finals and region tournament if things go their way. But nothing is a given in the 10th where defending region champ Campbell County (14-14) and Mason County (16-14) have each pulled upsets over the supposed favorites this month.
11th Region: No. 3 Henry Clay (23-5). The Blue Devils recently overtook No. 9 Lexington Catholic (26-2) in the ratings thanks to back-to-back wins over top-10 teams John Hardin and Ballard. But the 11th favorites have not faced each other in the regular season. Henry Clay’s trio of Marques Warrick, Marquis Mackey and Sebian Dillard figure to make it difficult for LexCath, which has junior phenom Ben Johnson and his 25.4 points per game. Warrick is a Mr. Basketball candidate now — Johnson is next year.
12th Region: No. 13 Lincoln County (22-7). A slight edge to the Patriots here, but the 12th’s ratings are tightly bunched with several teams, including Pulaski County (23-5), Somerset (23-5), West Jessamine (16-11) and East Jessamine (18-9) capable of taking it. Lincoln’s Jaxon Smith (13.4 ppg) and Elijah Frye (12.5 ppg) lead the scoring attack. Somerset has three-sport standout Kade Grundy (17.2 ppg) leading a trio of double-figure scorers.
13th Region: South Laurel (25-4). The Cardinals have Mr. Basketball candidate Matt Cromer (25.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and haven’t lost in more than a month, including a win over fellow contender North Laurel (20-8). But over the season, South Laurel split with the team up north and with Clay County (20-9). North Laurel has freshman sensation Reed Shepperd, who notched a quadruple double this season. Clay County boasts four double-figure scorers led by Jacob Curry’s 18.7 points per game.
14th Region: Hazard (23-5). Could the Bulldogs make their first appearance in the Sweet Sixteen since 2009? With Wade Pelphrey (17 ppg) and a pair of wins each over rivals Knott County Central (17-9) and Wolfe County (18-8), chances look promising. Look out, though, defending region champ Perry County Central (11-16) snuck up and took a 65-64 overtime win against Hazard on Jan. 31.
15th Region: Shelby Valley (23-6). Shelby Valley is led by Mr. Basketball nominee Cody Potter, a Rollins College commit who averages 25.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. Martin County (17-12) with Wake Forest commit Trey James tripped the Wildcats up Feb. 11 and look to be a factor. Johnson Central (16-11) and Lawrence County (18-10) could figure in, as well.
16th Region: Ashland Blazer (28-0). The Tomcats kept their undefeated season alive thanks to a buzzer-beating “SportsCenter” top play heave from Cole Villers against West Carter this past week. Ashland has slipped out of the Cantrall top 25, perhaps due to a soft schedule, but hold the No. 1 spot in the media rankings top 10. Rowan County (23-7) should prove the Tomcats’ toughest test.
Predictions
For entertainment purposes only, here are some picks. Your opinions may vary.
Sweet Sixteen semifinals: Madisonville vs. Henry Clay; Male vs. Covington Catholic.
Finals: Henry Clay vs. Male.
Champion: Male.
Boys’ Sweet Sixteen
When: March 18-22
Where: Rupp Arena
View the bracket: https://bit.ly/2HLP3P2
District tournament brackets
1ST REGION
1st District at Hickman County
2nd District at McCracken County
4th District at Marshall County
2ND REGION
8th District at Christian County
3RD REGION
9th District at Owensboro Sportscenter
10th District at McLean County
12th District at Grayson County
4TH REGION
15th District at Allen County-Scottsville
16th District at Russell County
5TH REGION
19th District at Nelson County
20th District at Taylor County
6TH REGION
7TH REGION
28th District at Christian Academy-Louisville
8TH REGION
29th District at Trimble County Jr./Sr. High
30th District at Anderson County
31st District at Gallatin County
9TH REGION
34th District at Dixie Heights
10TH REGION
37th District at Campbell County Middle School
38th District at Nicholas County
39th District at Bracken County
11TH REGION
41st District at Franklin County
44th District at Eastern Kentucky University
12TH REGION
45th District at Lincoln County
46th District at East Jessamine
47th District at Rockcastle County
13TH REGION
49th District at Jackson County
50th District at Whitley County
52nd District at Harlan County
14TH REGION
53rd District at Alice Lloyd College
54th District at Leslie County
55th District at Breathitt County
56th District at Powell County
15TH REGION
57th District at Martin County
59th District at Jenkins Middle School
16TH REGION
62nd District at Elliott County
63rd District to be announced
64th District at Boyd County Middle School
