Girls’ playoffs preview: Predictions for every region as high school basketball’s postseason begins
The Kentucky high school girls’ basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for this year’s KHSAA Girls’ Sweet 16 later this month in Rupp Arena.
Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All district finalists make their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Mingua Beef Jerky/KHSAA Girls’ Sweet 16.
We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state.
11th Region
Favorite: Franklin County (12-5) came into this season with high expectations and a No. 2 Herald-Leader preseason ranking. Injuries and COVID-19 cancellations might have stunted their development, but the Flyers remain dangerous thanks to having one of the state’s best guards in Tennessee commit Brooklynn Miles, the region’s player of the year who averages 16.5 points and six assists per game. Patience Laster is also a force, averaging 14.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Cantrall rating: 74.7, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Paul Laurence Dunbar (14-3) has an elite scorer and rebounder in Elise Ellison-Coons at 18.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. Aziah Campbell and Tanaya Cecil provide much of the rest of the scoring. Ball security will be key for them. Madison Southern (15-6) plays a physical game and can flat shoot with senior guard Samantha Cornelison averaging five three-point makes per game. Great Crossing (10-6) poses problems in an up-tempo game. Whoever wins between Lexington Catholic (11-6) and Lafayette (13-5) could be a threat.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Franklin County.
1st Region
Favorite: Marshall County (18-2) has region player of the year Cayson Conner (12.7 points), junior standout Halle Langhi (12.6 points) and Tennessee track commit Sophie Galloway, a lineup that has run roughshod over 1st Region competition and defeated the likes of Bardstown, Owensboro Catholic and Mercy. Cantrall rating: 83.9, tops in the region and No. 6 overall.
Spoilers: Perhaps only Graves County (17-2), led by senior forward Avery Myatt (14 points per game) stands a chance against the Marshals. The Eagles lost to Marshall County by 14 on Jan. 29. No other region rival has come closer than 22. The other six opponents all lost by more than 30.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Marshall County.
2nd Region
Favorite: Henderson County (14-4), led by region player of the year Sadie Wurth (14.1 points) figures to continue the Colonels’ dominance of the 2nd. Since 2001, Henderson County has won the title 14 times and this year’s edition has quality wins over Bowling Green and Breckinridge County. Cantrall rating: 81.9, tops in the region and No. 12 overall.
Spoilers: Webster County (9-11) has a sub-.500 record but is the second-best Cantrall-rated team in the region. Crittenden County (16-4) reached the All “A” semifinals and has a standout scorer with sophomore guard Taylor Guess (19.6 points).
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Henderson County.
3rd Region
Favorite: Breckinridge County (19-3) is led by region player of the year Aleigha Mucker (16.1 points) and fellow senior Cassidy McDaniel (13.1 points) with juniors Isabel Grimes and Sydney Tucker also averaging in double figures. Cantrall rating: 77.0, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Meade County (11-7) is actually the top seed in the 11th District over Breckinridge, thanks to a 54-53 road win over the Tigers on Jan. 22. The two are likely to meet in the district finals and the region tournament. But defending champ Owensboro Catholic (13-9) could have a say. Apollo (10-6) has been competitive.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Breckinridge County.
4th Region
Favorite: Defending champion Bowling Green (13-10) might not have the most impressive record, but that’s because the Purples have tackled a difficult schedule. A 12-point win over a superb Bardstown team shows what they’re capable of with junior center LynKaylah James (17 points per game) and sophomore forward Meadow Tisdale (15.3 points). Cantrall rating: 78.7, tops in the region and No. 22 overall.
Spoilers: Barren County (16-7) handed Bowling Green a 12-point loss in the season opener and played top-10 Elizabethtown within a point on Jan. 12. COVID-19 quarantines have sidelined Warren Central (9-6) much of the season but the Dragons have a four-game win streak and more than 18 points per game from sophomore guard Saniyah Shelton.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Barren County.
5th Region
Favorite: Defending champion and Associated Press No. 1 Elizabethtown (21-0) has run the table with wins over the likes of Mercy, Barren County, Bowling Green, Franklin County, Henderson County and rival Bardstown after graduating seven seniors off last year’s Sweet 16 team. Eighth-grade sensation Leah Macy (19.7 points) and senior guard Kayra Freeman (14.1) lead the way now. Cantrall rating 81.0, second in the region and No. 15 overall.
Spoilers: The 5th boasts probably the toughest top end in the state with Bethlehem (20-4) and Bardstown (18-5) actually rated higher than E-town by Dave Cantrall. The Banshees are back-to-back All “A” Classic champions and have region player of the year Ella Thompson (18.2 points). Bardstown is led by no-doubt 2022 Miss Basketball candidate Jaileyah Cotton (22.4 points).
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Bethlehem.
6th Region
Favorite: Bullitt East (17-2) has been unstoppable with 6-6 junior center Gracie Merkle in the lineup. Merkle averages 18.4 points and 12.1 rebounds per game and offers security and confidence for all of her shooters because she’s extremely likely to get offensive rebounds. Losses to Ryle and Bardstown during the midseason came with Merkle sidelined by injury. Cantrall rating: 84.2, tops in the region and tied for No. 4 overall.
Spoilers: Butler (10-2) rallied close to Bullitt East in the Louisville Invitational Tournament title game a week ago but still lost by eight. The Bearettes boast Temple commit Tiarra East (16.4 points) and Georgetown College commit Dynastee White (12.7 points).
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Bullitt East.
7th Region
Favorite: Defending champion Sacred Heart (17-7) gets the nod as favorite here due to a slight edge in the Cantrall ratings and a more difficult schedule than undefeated Central. Coach Donna Moir lost three major contributors off last year’s Sweet 16 team but has the Valkyries back in contention led by sophomore guard Triniti Ralston (12.6 points). Cantrall rating: 82.1, tops in the region and No. 11 overall.
Spoilers: Central (11-0) has region player of the year Taylor Price and she’s not even the Yellow Jackets’ leading scorer. That honor goes to junior point guard Amaya Asher (13.9 points). Manual (6-3), led by junior forward Kennedy Lee (12.4 points), has shown flashes of brilliance. Male (7-2) and Christian Academy-Louisville (16-7) have a shot.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Central.
8th Region
Favorite: Defending champion Anderson County (21-2) has the guard play, size and experience one would expect from a team that has been No. 1 most of the season. With only a road loss to Ryle and a home loss to Boyd County that was part of a two-game day for the Bearcats, Anderson has stared down one of the toughest schedules in the state. Junior guard Amiya Jenkins leads the team with 17.2 points per game and can really defend. Cantrall rating 85.7, tops in the region and No. 2 overall.
Spoilers: Walton-Verona (15-8) has been All “A” Classic runner-up two years running and has standout point guard Haylee Neeley. Spencer County (14-4), Owen County (13-9) and South Oldham (12-3) rate above average in the state.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Anderson County.
9th Region
Favorite: Ryle (20-2) is the last team to hoist a state championship trophy and has Eastern Kentucky commit and region player of the year Brie Crittendon (14.8 points) back for the three-time defending region champions. A loss to Clark County on Jan. 30 seemed like a wake-up call and the Raiders have been rolling since, winning 13 straight. Cantrall rating: 86.4, No. 1 overall.
Spoilers: A young Cooper (15-3) team is on the rise with sophomore standout Whitney Lind (14.7 points). Dixie Heights (21-2) has notched impressive wins over Notre Dame, Walton-Verona and Highlands, led by junior forward Madelyn Lawson (14.9 points).
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Ryle.
10th Region
Favorite: Clark County (15-5) has shown few signs it will relinquish its four-year grip on the 10th and grabbed a stunning win at Ryle on Jan. 30. Sophomore Brianna Byars, a 5-10 forward, has stepped into the team lead with 16.2 points per game and her eighth-grade sister, Ciara runs the point. Juniors Trinity Gay and Tyra Flowers contribute about nine points each per game. Cantrall rating: 77.5, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Bishop Brossart (16-5) has 6-2 center Marie Kiefer, a Ball State commit who averages 20.7 per game. Scott (15-7) features region player of the year Mya Meredith (20.4 points), a Western Kentucky commit, and Tampa commit Sofia Allen (15.3 points). Meredith injured her knee in the first game a year ago, and she has returned to form. Paris (14-4) tripped up Clark in the season opener.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Clark County.
12th Region
Favorite: Southwestern (16-3), led by senior guard Alexa Smiddy (15.1 points) is on an eight-game win streak that has included victories over rivals Wayne County and Pulaski County and a statement-making home win over then No. 2 Marshall County. The Warriors have also taken two out of three from 13th Region contender North Laurel. Cantrall rating 82.5, tops in the region and tied No. 9 overall.
Spoilers: Wayne County (17-2) features region player of the year Macey Blevins (17.9 points) with Mallory Campbell and Kenzie Upchurch also averaging double figures. The Cardinals split with the Warriors in the regular season. Danville (13-5) made a run to the All “A” Classic semifinals.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Wayne County.
13th Region
Favorite: North Laurel (20-4) has three double-figure scorers, led by Hailee Valentine’s 17.9 points per game, and has routed rivals Bell County and Whitley County, two of its closest chasers, and beaten Corbin by eight on March 5. Cantrall rating: 80.6, tops in the region and No. 18 overall.
Spoilers: Defending champion South Laurel (15-10) has had an up-and-down season and has not faced the Jaguars, yet. Two-time state championship Coach Chris Souder has a way of figuring things out, though. He has junior center Rachel Presley (14.4 points) and senior guard Brianna Howard (10.7).
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: North Laurel.
14th Region
Favorite: Owsley County (17-3) has region player of the year Lexy Lynch averaging 18.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game and another big scoring threat in freshman Carly Smith, scoring at a 17.1 points-per-game clip. The Owls have been tripped up this year, notably in a 47-40 home loss to Hazard, but they have 14 wins within the region. Cantrall rating: 63.4, second in the region.
Spoilers: Knott County Central (15-7) actually owns a higher Cantrall rating than the Owls but narrowly lost their only meeting on Jan. 10, 44-39. Senior Keara Mullins (13.4 points) and sophomore Abby Maggard (12.2) lead the Patriots in scoring. Defending champion Letcher County Central (13-12) has taken most of its losses outside the region and remains a threat.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Owsley County.
15th Region
Favorite: Pikeville (20-5), led by freshman point guard Trinity Rowe (15.8), looks to primed defend its title after quickly avenging an All “A” Classic ouster by chief rival Shelby Valley in January and then beating the Lady Kats again on March 4. Fellow freshman Kristen Whited and senior Mackenzie Maynard also average in double figures. Cantrall rating: 77.5, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Shelby Valley (11-9) has junior standouts Cassady Rowe (a Kentucky commit) and Alyssa Elswick and a win over the Panthers. Floyd Central (16-4) took down Pikeville 60-54 on March 6 and has region player of the year Katie Moore (17.9 points). Johnson Central (18-4) hasn’t faced Pikeville yet, but it beaten most everyone else.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Pikeville.
16th Region
Favorite: Boyd County (12-1) spent a lot of the season sidelined by quarantine and an ice storm, but it has reeled off five straight wins, including an impressive road victory over then No. 1 Anderson County on Feb. 27. The Lions also have region player of the year Harley Paynter (17.2 points), a Tennessee Tech commit, and three other starters averaging in double figures. Cantrall rating 82.5, tops in the region and tied No. 9 overall.
Spoilers: Russell (14-5) used a second-half 12-1 rally to knock Boyd County from the ranks of the unbeaten on Feb. 25 and stayed close with the Lions in a 67-62 loss on March 4. Senior Aubrey Hill (14.2 points) and freshman Shaelyn Steele (13.6) lead the Red Devils in scoring. Ashland Blazer (13-8) has shown it can beat Russell and could be trouble.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Boyd County.
