Boys’ playoffs preview: Predictions for every region as high school basketball’s postseason begins
The Kentucky high school boys’ basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for this year’s KHSAA Boys’ Sweet 16 later this month in Rupp Arena.
Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All district finalists make their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Boys’ Sweet 16.
We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state.
11th Region
Favorite: Lexington Catholic (19-1) has been ranked No. 1 by the Associated Press much of the year and has Mr. Basketball candidate Ben Johnson’s 26.9 points per game as well as length with 6-11 post player Reece Potter and 6-4 wingman Hudson Sparks to go with the solid play of Jack Gohmann (11.9 points) and senior Ryan Russell. Cantrall rating: 83.8, No 1 in the 11th, No. 2 statewide.
Spoilers: Frederick Douglass (15-1) and Eastern Kentucky commit Dashawn Jackson knocked out the region’s highest ranked team (Henry Clay) a year ago and have the depth and skill to compete with LexCath with double-digit scoring also from 6-7 forward Tyson Barrett and point guard Kai Simpson. Paul Laurence Dunbar (10-5) knocked LexCath from the unbeaten ranks a week ago and has been getting exceptional play from Nick Spalding and Tim Hall. Madison Central (16-8) could play dark horse. The Indians have four double-figure scorers led by Kole Brown’s 19.3 points per game.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Lexington Catholic.
1st Region
Favorite: McCracken County (17-6) looks like a solid pick to repeat with the leadership of region co-player of the year Noah Dumas (15 points per game) and three other double-digit scorers in the starting five, including 6-6 junior Ian Hart. The Mustangs are unbeaten in the region with a two-game sweep of chief rival Marshall County. Cantrall rating: 69.3, No. 2 in the region behind Paducah Tilghman.
Spoilers: Marshall County (10-8) has played much of the year without region co-player of the year Zion Harmon, a Western Kentucky commit who is considered one of the best at his position in the nation. He returned from injury Feb. 23 and the Marshals haven’t lost since. Paducah Tilghman could threaten with senior guard Eli Brown, who averages 17.4 points per game. Murray (13-7) is the dark horse pick.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Marshall County.
2nd Region
Favorite: Lyon County (20-3) is unbeaten in the region and just notched an impressive 87-63 win over McCracken. Coach’s son Travis Perry, just a freshman, ranks among the top scorers in the state at 27.3 points per game. Cantrall rating: 71.5, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Hopkinsville (6-3) has spent most of the season in a COVID-19 shutdown but appears dangerous after also knocking off McCracken last week. Madisonville (12-4) is led by senior guard Kale Gaither’s 19.1 points per game and is on a seven-game win streak.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Lyon County.
3rd Region
Favorite: Muhlenberg County (14-1) has bested its three closest rivals with senior guard Nash Divine averaging 17.9 points per game. The Mustangs are riding a 12-game win streak into districts. Cantrall rating: 74.6, best in the region.
Spoilers: Among 3rd Region foes, Owensboro (9-5) came the closest to knocking off Muhlenberg, losing 53-51 to the Mustangs on Feb. 9 The Red Devils are led by Kenyatta Carbon and Amari Robinson-Wales, averaging 19.2 and 18.6 points per game, respectively. Defending champ Owensboro Catholic (15-7) will need a lot to go right after two straight losses to close the regular season.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Owensboro.
4th Region
Favorite: Bowling Green (18-2) has standout senior Isaiah Mason (17.6 points) and junior Turner Buttry (15.8 points) and recently helped Coach D.G. Sherrill obtain his 400th career win. The Purples’ two losses have been inexplicably lopsided. Cantrall rating: 80.5 tops in the region and No. 10 overall.
Spoilers: Clinton County (19-3) made a run to the All “A” Classic finals but compares poorly in Cantrall’s ratings (63.5). Warren Central (8-5) kept its game against the Purples close in the regular season but will need to make a leap to make a fourth straight Sweet 16.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Bowling Green.
5th Region
Favorite: Elizabethtown (14-2) has impressive wins over DeSales, Bowling Green and a sweep of rival John Hardin. All five starters average double figures with senior guard Jaquias Franklin leading the way at 19.6 points. A road loss to Covington Catholic knocked the Panthers from atop the rankings, but they look like a contender. Cantrall rating: 82.6, tops in the region and No. 4 overall.
Spoilers: John Hardin (13-4) has two close losses against E-town and will be confident in a rematch with the scoring combo of Anthony Bowen (18.2 points) and Amareion Doctor (15.8 points). LaRue County (14-2) and Bardstown (12-11) are “any given game” kind of threats.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Elizabethtown.
6th Region
Favorite: DeSales (16-6) has rocketed up the ratings after making its way to a Louisville Invitational Tournament championship with impressive wins over St. Xavier and Ballard. The Ballard title-game win came in overtime with 24 points each from Devin Perry and Sekou Kalle. Kalle, an Akron commit, also had 20 rebounds in the contest. Cantrall rating: 81.1, tops in the region and No. 8 overall.
Spoilers: Defending champion Fern Creek (10-5) has three Herald-Leader preseason top 25 players in Jaden Rogers, Darrius Washington and Ce’Arius Warren. Butler (7-3) knocked the shine off DeSales’ LIT win by upsetting the Colts two days later. Pleasure Ridge Park (11-3) and Doss (9-4) also rate a threat, according to Dave Cantrall’s ratings.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Fern Creek.
7th Region
Favorite: Male (5-2), the defending champion, has maintained its Cantrall ratings edge over Ballard despite the Bruins’ run to the LIT finals. That’s because Male has spent much of the season, including the LIT, in quarantine. But Male’s collection of talent — including region player of the year Cameron Pope (16.8 points), Kaleb Glenn (23.1), Kyran Tilley (11.6) and Dezdrick Lindsay (10.1) — is undeniable. Cantrall rating: 83.5, tops in the region, No. 3 in the state.
Spoilers: Ballard (14-2) has as an imposing lineup as any in the state with Gabe Sisk (18.6 points), Maker Bar (16.1 points, 10.4 rebounds) and Kennedy Hayden (12.5 points) and are an overtime loss to DeSales away from being the favorite. Trinity (15-5) has handed Ballard one of its two losses. St. Xavier (19-5) had put a nice run together before falling to DeSales in the LIT semis.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Ballard.
8th Region
Favorite: Oldham County (10-4) has had a couple of COVID-19 stoppages but also has an impressive win over DeSales and swept 29th District rivals North Oldham and South with Tyler Slone and Deaton Oak each averaging in double figures. Cantrall rating: 78.9, tops in the region by eight points and No. 15 overall.
Spoilers: Simon Kenton (12-8) has region player of the year Kelly Niece, the program’s all-time leading scorer. Spencer County (16-6) is led by Sam Conley’s 21.9 points with Jake Whitlock and Lucas Hornback also in double figures.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Oldham County.
9th Region
Favorite: Covington Catholic (21-3) seems to always be in the Sweet 16, no matter who graduated and no matter the competition within the region. The Colonels have wins over DeSales, Trinity, Highlands, St. X, Male, Ashland Blazer and Elizabethtown among others and four double-figure scorers led by 6-7 junior center Mitchell Rylee (16.7 points). Cantrall rating: 84.3, tops in the region and No. 1 overall.
Spoilers: St. Henry (16-2) has won back-to-back All “A” Classic titles with their senior MVP Wyatt Vieth and is one of only two in-state teams to beat CovCath, which they did 61-60 on their home court Feb. 23. Highlands (21-4) could threaten with region player of the year Sam Vinson.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Covington Catholic.
10th Region
Favorite: Clark County (14-4) remains dangerous despite a midseason swoon that saw a couple of COVID-19 stoppages and a monthslong loss of standout junior Jerone Morton (23.3 points) due to a wrist injury. Morton is back, but the Cards haven’t quite returned to the form that saw them open the season with nine straight wins. Clark has three other proven scorers, such as senior wingman Jared Wellman (18.0 points). Cantrall rating: 74.7, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Mason County (16-3) has been rolling since a Jan. 29 loss to Clark County in a streak that included a pair of gutty overtime wins. Terrell Henry leads the Royals with 20.6 points per game. Scott (14-8), Montgomery County (10-7) and Campbell County (14-8) cannot be discounted.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Clark County.
12th Region
Favorite: Boyle County (17-3) has swept chief rival Lincoln County during the regular season and only taken losses inside the region to Danville (in double overtime) and Somerset (by four points on Jan. 30). Luke Imfeld leads the rebels with 20.2 points per game. Cantrall rating: 71.0, No. 2 in the region.
Spoilers: Lincoln County (12-6) actually tops the Cantrall ratings for the region and has four double-figure scorers led by junior guard Jaxon Smith (16.8 points). Defending champ West Jessamine (12-7) has a knack for postseason play and DeAjuan Stepp, who averages 20.1 points per game. Somerset (14-7) features region player of the year Kade Grundy. Pulaski County (11-6) has a quality win over Madison Central on its résumé.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Boyle County
13th Region
Favorite: North Laurel (19-2) took a huge hit in the rankings after back-to-back blowout losses to Ashland Blazer and Lexington Catholic last week, but they still have the state’s top scorer in sophomore standout Reed Sheppard and wins over every team they’ve faced in the 13th plus Covington Catholic. Cantrall rating: 77.8, tops in the region and No. 17 overall.
Spoilers: Harlan County (18-4) has quality wins over West Jessamine, South Laurel and Lafayette and features standout freshman point guard Trent Noah, who averages 20.7 points per game. South Laurel (16-5) has righted the ship since losing to North Laurel and Lexington Catholic in late February. Two-time defending champ Knox Central (13-5) tends to figure things out come playoff time.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: North Laurel.
14th Region
Favorite: Just going by Dave Cantrall’s system, defending champion Hazard (18-4) has the field covered with a more than 11-point ratings edge. Led by senior guard Wade Pelfrey’s 21.5 points per game, the Bulldogs have only one loss within the region. Cantrall rating: 70.7, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Knott County Central (13-7) handed Hazard that region loss and knocked it out of the All “A” Classic in the season opener and has senior Colby Napier leading the team in scoring at 20.9 points per game. Wolfe County (13-9) has region player of the year Jaz Johnson averaging 22.3 points per game.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Hazard.
15th Region
Favorite: Johnson Central (18-2) appears to be the class of the field with seniors Isaiah May and Cory VanHoose leading the way with 16.2 and 15.8 points per game, respectively. The Golden Eagles beat rivals Paintsville twice and Shelby Valley by more than 20. Cantrall rating: 73.2, tops in the region.
Spoilers: Paintsville (10-8) has taken its lumps but only lost by seven to Johnson Central last time out and is led by sophomore Colby Fugate (21.0 points). Shelby Valley (16-7) has taken two of three off the Tigers. Belfry (15-9) has 7-foot-3 big man Bol Kuir, who has the second-most rebounds in a KHSAA game ever with his 42 against Lawrence County.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Johnson Central.
16th Region
Favorite: Ashland Blazer (15-4) set the Kentucky high school scene on fire again this season with its 86-66 demolition of then No. 2 North Laurel. Undefeated a year ago, the Tomcats remain a young team led by junior guard Cole Villers (22.8 points) and sophomore point guard Colin Porter (17.6 points). Cantrall rating: 79.0, tops in the region and No. 14 overall.
Spoilers: For all the hoopla about Ashland, Rowan County (11-3) nearly nipped the Tomcats on Feb. 24, losing 68-66 in overtime. Rowan has region player of the year Mason Moore (20.2 points). Boyd County (13-8) has a pair of close losses to Ashland and Rowan, which could prove fodder for a rematch.
@HLpreps’ Sweet 16 pick: Ashland Blazer.
Correction: An earlier version of this story had the wrong grade for Colby Napier of Knott County Central. He is a senior.
This story was originally published March 13, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
