Picking winners in every high school football playoff game

The region finals of the Russell Athletic/KHSAA Commonwealth Gridiron Bowl playoffs are upon us! Forty-eight teams on Friday night will vie for the chance to practice on Thanksgiving next week.

Three teams from Lexington are still in contention: Frederick Douglass in Class 6A, Lexington Catholic in Class 3A and Lexington Christian in Class 2A. All three will meet opponents that knocked them off during the regular season: Scott County in 6A, Boyle County in 3A and Danville in 2A.

Here’s a quick look at every game being played this week, plus my picks for all the games.

Class A

Campbellsville (6-6) at Crittenden County (8-4): Hunter Boone has thrown for 32 TDs and nearly 2,500 yards for the the Rockets, who are in this round for the first time since 2009. The gap between region final trips has been longer for Campbellsville, which last made one in 2007. Pick: Crittenden County

Beechwood (9-2) at Kentucky Country Day (11-1): The travelers hold a strong lead over all other Class A teams in the Cantrall Ratings. KCD’s only loss this year was to Lexington Christian. Pick: Beechwood.

Raceland (8-4) at Paintsville (11-1): One of eastern Kentucky’s best rivalries gets renewed less than a month after the most recent meeting, a 32-18 win by the Tigers, who are unbeaten against Kentucky competition. Pick: Paintsville.

Pikeville (7-4) at Hazard (9-2): The Bulldogs are in their 12th straight region championship game, a feat they accomplished despite losing star running back Cory Smith to an ACL injury in September. Pikeville dropped four of its first five games before righting the ship. Pick: Hazard.

Class 2A

Owensboro Catholic (8-4) at Mayfield (11-1): The Cardinals are second only to LCA in points per game statewide and have ended Owensboro Catholic’s season each of the last two years. The Aces have won six of their last seven games. Pick: Mayfield.

Christian Academy of Louisville (10-2) at DeSales (12-0): Last year’s 2A champs lost the regular season matchup at home to DeSales, which is only allowing an average of 9.7 points per game. CAL hasn’t given up more than seven points in a game since losing, 21-3, to the Colts on Oct. 6. Pick: DeSales.

Monroe County (9-3) at Glasgow (9-3): Scotties scored their best win of the season last week, a 27-20 decision over Newport Central Catholic. They’ll host the Eagles for a second time this season; they won the first meeting, 45-21. Pick: Glasgow.

Lexington Christian (11-1) at Danville (12-0): LCA was looking to go up 28-7 over the Admirals in the first meeting before a series of errors and injuries enabled Danville to steal momentum and leave Lexington with a 44-28 win. Pick: Lexington Christian.

Class 3A

Elizabethtown (11-1) at Caldwell County (10-2): Etown started the season with a bang – a 55-23 thrashing of Class 4A state runner-up Franklin-Simpson – and stumbled just once (at CAL). Some of the Tigers’ wins that seemed lackluster earlier in the year (Crittenden County, Hopkinsville) now look stronger. Pick: Elizabethtown.

Class 3A, Lexington Catholic (7-5) at Boyle County (11-1): The Rebels’ only loss this year was on a late field goal to Danville, 10-7. Catholic didn’t win consecutive games this season until it reached the playoffs, but it also played one of the state’s toughest schedules — including a 48-17 loss to these Rebels. Pick: Boyle County

Belfry (11-1) at Central (10-2): In the last 10 seasons these two have vied six times for the Class 3A title; now they’ll face off just for a chance to get a chance to play for a championship. Belfry hasn’t lost to a Kentucky opponent since 2014, and has the most recent win in the series – 52-31 in last year’s finals. Pick: Belfry.

Corbin (11-1) at Powell County (8-4): The Pirates started 0-4 and weren’t given much of a shot against Casey County last week before springing a 44-41 upset. The Redhounds’ only loss is to Class A favorite Beechwood. Pick: Corbin.

Class 4A

Hopkinsville (6-6) at Franklin-Simpson (9-3): To finish above .500 for the year, the Tigers — who haven’t lost since dropping six of their first seven games — would have to reach the state finals. After a 2-3 start, last year’s state runner-up Wildcats have returned to form and are in the state’s top 10 for rushing offense and defense. Pick: Franklin-Simpson.

Mercer County (7-5) at Collins (10-2): A shaky regular season has yielded a second-straight region finals for Mercer County. Collins found more consistency between these sets of Titans and brings a seven-game win streak into Friday. Pick: Collins.

Wayne County (11-1) at Western (8-4): One of the more unique matchups thanks to new cross-bracketing procedures brings the Cardinals to Louisville for the first time since 2013, when they played Central in the same round. Western is undefeated against Class 4A competition this year. Pick: Wayne County.

Johnson Central (10-2) at Ashland Blazer (10-2): Central lost five fumbles to the Tomcats in a 21-18 loss in Ashland earlier this season, the first of back-to-back losses. Blazer hasn’t lost since August and is on a nine-game win streak. Pick: Johnson Central.

Class 5A

South Warren (10-2) at Bowling Green (10-2): A much-hyped first-time affair between these two turned into a snoozer when the Purples handed their cross-town rivals a 43-7 defeat. Aside from that result, the Spartans have impressed in their first season in the class. Pick: Bowling Green

Covington Catholic (12-0) at South Oldham (10-1): Talk of the state’s best team other than Trinity usually starts with CovCath, which is beating opponents by an average score of 45-7. The Dragons haven’t lost since CAL beat them in their season-opener. Pick: Covington Catholic.

Class 5A, Montgomery County (10-2) at Madison Southern (9-3): One of the Indians’ only losses this year was at home against Madison Southern, 36-30. Two of the Eagles’ were to teams still alive in other brackets (Collins and Wayne County) and Class 6A rival Madison Central. Pick: Madison Southern

Class 5A, Southwestern (10-2) at Harlan County (7-5): Southwestern’s Patric Edwards leads Class 5A with 1,672 rushing yards and 29 TDs. Harlan County lost four straight games after a huge win over Ashland Blazer to open the season. Pick: Southwestern

Class 6A

Daviess County (7-5) at Central Hardin (9-3): Whichever unit comes out of this one will widely be considered tribute fodder for Trinity on Black Friday, but a region title’s still a region title. History favors Central Hardin, which has been on this stage before, whereas the Panthers find themselves here for the first time. Pick: Central Hardin.

Simon Kenton (11-1) at Trinity (12-0): These two have met four times in playoff history and it’s not been pretty for the Pioneers; they’ve been outscored 232-0. Trinity’s won 27 straight games overall, the best on-going streak in Kentucky. Pick: Trinity.

Butler (8-4) at St. Xavier (10-2): Signature wins against like competition eluded the Bears in the regular season but in the playoffs they’ve upset Ryle and Male, both on the road, in subsequent weeks. St. X won the first meeting in October, 37-0. Pick: St. Xavier

Class 6A, Frederick Douglass (10-2) at Scott County (10-2): The Broncos could not have asked for a much better inaugural season than the one they’ve had. Douglass hung with Scott County for a little more than a quarter before the Cardinals, who’ve not lost to a Kentucky opponent this year, cruised to a 55-21 win in October. Pick: Scott County

This story was originally published November 17, 2017 at 10:40 AM with the headline "Picking winners in every high school football playoff game."