Who wins the Dunbar-Tates Creek rematch? Predictions for every Class 6A district title.
It’s district championship week in the UK Orthopaedics/KHSAA Commonwealth Gridiron Bowl featuring some Kroger Field-worthy games in just the second round of the playoffs.
They start handing out trophies this week and each week until the biggest trophy gets awarded in December.
In Lexington, Tates Creek and Paul Laurence Dunbar have the chance to add to their most successful seasons in years in the 7th District championship game.
The Commodores have not advanced past the second round since 2001. A win Friday would not only break that streak, it would make them the host of their third-round game as the second-highest remaining seed in the east (No. 4 Trinity is the highest on Creek’s side of the bracket). Dunbar hasn’t had a winning season since 2005, which is also the last time the Bulldogs had a playoff win before this year.
Creek dominated Dunbar 46-7 in the regular season, but the Bulldogs have not lost since and mounted a pair of stunning come-from-behind wins along the way.
All of this week’s Class 6A games are regular-season rematches, adding drama and the potential for payback at the most crucial moment of the season.
Here’s an expanded look at the 7th District championship, plus a quick summary of the rest of Friday’s Class 6A slate with predictions. All rankings are according to the final week KHSAA RPI which will be used to seed the next round.
Featured matchup
4th District: No. 19 Paul Laurence Dunbar (7-4) at No. 10 Tates Creek (7-4).
Last time: Visiting Tates Creek won 46-7 on Oct. 11.
Why Dunbar will win: Heart. In their last two games, the Bulldogs were down 21-0 at half and 19-7 in the fourth quarter. They won both by a touchdown or more. Dunbar will need to avoid mistakes that could put them in a similar hole against a more potent Tates Creek squad. Wideout Jamarcus Robinson has more than 1,000 yards receiving and 11 TDs. Quarterback Jake Smith has put up 1,731 yards and 19 TDs with a running back by committee behind him led by Mitchell Joseph’s 549 yards. Dunbar’s defense can make game-changing plays, forcing nine fumbles and intercepting 13 passes on the year.
Why Tates Creek will win: More firepower. The Commodores have been shut out only by North Hardin, one of Class 6A’s best teams, and their combination of Luke Duby to Thomas Miles in the air has established itself as one of the best QB-wideout pairings in the state. Duby, a Cornell commit, ranks second in the state in passing with 3,665 yards and 37 TDs, many of those to Miles, who ranks third statewide with 135 yards per game and 20 TDs. Duby threw for a whopping 424 yards and four TDs against Dunbar in the regular season. Creek runs just enough — 1,500 yards on the year — led by Duby and Marcus Bosley.
@HLpreps pick: Tates Creek.
The rest of the field
1st District: No. 8 Henderson County (8-3) at No. 7 McCracken County (8-3).
Last time: Host Henderson won 33-28 on Oct. 25.
@HLpreps pick: McCracken.
2nd District: No. 5 Central Hardin (9-2) at No. 2 North Hardin (11-0).
Last time: Visiting North Hardin won 7-0 on Oct. 25.
@HLpreps pick: North Hardin.
3rd District: No. 9 St. Xavier (7-4) at No. 3 Manual (9-2).
Last time: Host Manual won 20-19 on Oct. 11.
@HLpreps pick: Manual.
4th District: No. 6 Fern Creek (8-3) at No. 1 Male (11-0).
Last time: Visiting Male won 34-21 on Oct. 18.
@HLpreps pick: Male.
5th District: No. 11 Ballard (6-5) at No. 4 Trinity (9-2).
Last time: Host Trinity won 45-7 on Oct. 11.
@HLpreps pick: Trinity.
6th District: No. 14 Ryle (5-6) at No. 13 Simon Kenton (7-4).
Last time: Visiting Simon Kenton won 44-14 on Oct. 25.
@HLpreps pick: Simon Kenton.
8th District: No. 17 Oldham County (7-4) at No. 16 Clark County (7-4).
Last time: Visiting Clark County won 28-26 on Oct. 25.
@HLpreps pick: Clark County.
