Road to the Kentucky Derby: Contenders to watch as the 2020 trail heats up
The Kentucky Derby is still a little more than three months away, but the group of top contenders for this year’s race is already starting to take shape.
With a handful of early prep races behind us, and some major ones coming up in the near future — including a few this weekend — it’s worth taking a look at the key players on the Derby trail so far.
Here’s the latest on 10 early contenders — and additional info on 10 more promising 3-year-olds — as the calendar flips to February, which should be a busy month for sorting out this year’s Derby hopefuls.
The William Hill sportsbook has provided its latest futures odds, and the Herald-Leader will continue to update this top-10 list as the road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby continues.
Anneau d’Or
William Hill odds: 24-1
Why he’s here: After winning his debut by 8 lengths on the turf last September, he’s finished a close second to two of the more impressive colts on this list: Storm the Court in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Thousand Words in the Los Alamitos Futurity. The next question for Anneau d’Or will be if he can actually get by such talented foes in the stretch, and blinkers could be added for his next start to help with that. All three of his races so far have been in California, and it doesn’t appear he’ll be leaving the state anytime soon.
Connections: Trainer Blaine Wright was on the Derby trail last year with Anothertwistafate, who missed the final field after runner-up finishes in the Sunland Derby and Lexington Stakes, then finished 10th in the Preakness Stakes. Wright has never had a Derby starter. Owner Peter Redekop was a part-owner of Cause to Believe, who finished 13th in the 2006 Derby. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who turns 28 in March, has been aboard Anneau d’Or for all three of his previous races and has never ridden in a Kentucky Derby.
Family ties: Medaglia d’Oro — the sire of Kentucky-bred Anneau d’Or — has sired such racing stars as Rachel Alexandra and Songbird, but he’s never sired a Kentucky Derby winner. The damsire of Anneau d’Or is Tapit, a three-time leading sire in North America and sire of three Belmont Stakes winners.
What’s next?: Though no particular race has been confirmed for Anneau d’Or’s 3-year-old debut, he will be staying in California with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby as the ultimate goal to cap the prep season. Among the possibilities are the Feb. 15 El Camino Real Derby, which Wright won with Anothertwistafate last year.
Dennis’ Moment
William Hill odds: 12-1
Why he’s here: Dennis’ Moment was the odds-on favorite for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before stumbling badly at the start at Santa Anita Park, ultimately finishing eighth and last. It wasn’t his first bout of trouble. In his racing debut — at Churchill Downs — Dennis’ Moment lost jockey Robby Albarado, resulting in a DNF. He won his next race by 19 lengths and then returned to Churchill to take the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in September with ease. If he can stay out of trouble, he might be the most talented contender in this group.
Connections: Will this finally be the colt that sends Louisville native Dale Romans to the Derby winner’s circle? The 53-year-old, Eclipse Award-winning trainer has 10 previous starters in his hometown race with a pair of third-place finishers (Paddy O’Prado and Dullahan) counting for his best showings. Romans teamed up with Dennis’ Moment owner Albaugh Family Stables for Derby starters in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard Dennis’ Moment for each of his past two races. The 27-year-old jockey has been in four Derbys, and he was fourth last year with Improbable.
Family ties: Dennis’ Moment is sired by Tiznow, the Hall of Famer and two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He was bred in Kentucky by Tolo Thoroughbreds.
What’s next?: A start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 29 appears to be the most likely spot for the 3-year-old debut of Dennis’ Moment, who has been in Florida since late December. If all goes well there, he’ll have one more prep race before the Derby.
Enforceable
William Hill odds: 20-1
Why he’s here: Enforceable had just one win in six starts as a 2-year-old but showed plenty of promise along the way, finishing the season with a third-place showing in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and a fourth-place performance in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. A couple of weeks ago, Enforceable took the next step with an impressive come-from-behind victory in the Grade 2 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, claiming his spot as a true Derby contender.
Connections: Trainer Mark Casse was caught up in last year’s Derby DQ controversy when his War of Will was interfered with and ultimately placed seventh. Casse went on to win the Preakness with War of Will and the Belmont Stakes with Sir Winston, but he’s 0-for-7 with Kentucky Derby starters. Owner John Oxley has had seven previous Derby starters, including 2001 race winner Monarchos. Enforceable has had five different jockeys in seven races, with Julien Leparoux riding him to the Lecomte victory. Leparoux — a regular Casse collaborator — has never finished better than fourth in 11 Derby starts.
Family ties: A Kentucky-bred son of leading sire Tapit — the ninth-place finisher in the 2004 Kentucky Derby — Enforceable is also a full brother to recent Derby contender Mohaymen, who finished fourth in the 2016 edition of the race. Damsire Dixie Union won the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational as a 3-year-old.
What’s next?: The logical next step for Enforceable will be a start in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 15, a race that Casse won last year with War of Will.
Green Light Go
William Hill odds: 75-1
Why he’s here: Green Light Go had two impressive victories in New York to start his career before going into the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last September as the 6-5 favorite. He finished second in that race — losing by 4 lengths to Tiz the Law — after curiously battling a contested pace up front. At 75-1 in the futures odds, he’s the longest shot among our early top 10 here and an intriguing colt at that price.
Connections: Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has two Breeders’ Cup victories and has won all manner of major North American races, but he’s saddled just one Kentucky Derby starter in his career: Wicked Strong, who finished fourth in 2014. Green Light Go is a Stronach Stables homebred and will be ridden in his next race by Javier Castellano, whose best finish in 13 career Derby starts came two years ago with third-place Audible. (Junior Alvarado rode Green Light Go in his first three races).
Family ties: Kentucky-bred Green Light Go’s sire, Hard Spun, was second in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Preakness, fourth in the Belmont, and second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2007. He was also the sire of the Jerkens-trained Wicked Strong. Green Light Go’s damsire, Pleasantly Perfect, was a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup, and the son of 1981 Kentucky Derby winner Pleasant Colony.
What’s next?: Jerkens has decided on Saturday’s Grade 3 Swale Stakes — a 7-furlong race at Gulfstream Park — for Green Light Go’s 2020 debut with an eye on moving on to longer races later in the spring.
Independence Hall
William Hill odds: 10-1
Why he’s here: Undefeated in three starts, Independence Hall won the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes by 12 lengths in November and came back Jan. 1 to take the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct by 4 lengths. Independence Hall acted up in the paddock before both races — something to watch moving forward — but all he’s done so far is win impressively, and he has the look of a future star. He should find much stiffer competition in his next race.
Connections: Trainer Michael Trombetta came to Louisville last year with his first Derby starter, Win Win Win, who emerged as something of wiseguy pick before finishing in the middle of the pack. Trombetta trains Independence Hall for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, which has been a part-owner of recent Derby contenders Danza, Destin and Tapwrit. Jockey Jose Ortiz has been aboard Independence Hall for the last two races, and he’s been in five Kentucky Derbys, including a second-place finish two years ago with Good Magic.
Family ties: A Kentucky bred, Independence Hall is the son of Constitution, who won the Florida Derby in 2014 but was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby with an injury. Constitution also won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap as a 4-year-old and — in his first crop as a sire — has produced such other 2020 Derby contenders as Tiz the Law, Gouverneur Morris and Ancient Warrior. Independence Hall’s damsire, Cape Town, won the Florida Derby in 1998 before finishing fifth in that year’s Kentucky Derby.
What’s next?: It’ll be the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 9 for Independence Hall, who turned in a bullet workout at the track this past weekend.
Maxfield
William Hill odds: 10-1
Why he’s here: He’s only run twice, but Maxfield is perfect in those two starts, including an impressive 5 ½-length victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October, defeating a field that included fellow Derby contenders Gouverneur Morris, Enforceable and Ajaaweed. Cause for pause: Maxfield hasn’t raced since that victory at Keeneland and underwent ankle surgery in November. His connections have said Maxfield’s racing schedule won’t be rushed, though he did return to training this month. If he can get back on the Derby trail, he should be in the very top tier of contenders.
Connections: Trainer Brendan Walsh — an Ireland native now living in Louisville — had his first Kentucky Derby starter last year with UAE Derby winner Plus Que Parfait, who finished eighth at Churchill Downs. Maxfield is a Godolphin homebred and has been ridden by jockey Jose Ortiz in both of his previous races.
Family ties: A Kentucky-bred, Maxfield is the son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, and his damsire is 2006’s 3-year-old champion Bernardini, who won the Preakness Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes, Travers Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup that year.
What’s next?: There’s no confirmed return race for Maxfield, and Walsh has been adamant that he will not be rushed back just to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Two prep races will be needed if he is to make the big race, and the Rebel Stakes on March 14 at Oaklawn Park might be the most likely first step.
Nadal
William Hill odds: 12-1
Why he’s here: The first of two Bob Baffert-trained contenders on this top 10 list — and it’s worth pointing out that the Derby veteran has several other possibilities this year — Nadal finally made his racing debut Jan. 19, turning in a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in a victory at 6 ½ furlongs. He had long been a promising star in Baffert’s barn, but an injury suffered while shipping between tracks last year interrupted his training and postponed his first start. Nadal got off to a late start for a true Kentucky Derby contender, but Baffert has done this before. Justify didn’t make his debut until Feb. 18 before winning the Triple Crown two years ago.
Connections: Trainer Bob Baffert’s credentials don’t need much elaboration. He’s won five Kentucky Derbys, with two Triple Crowns in the past five years. Nadal is owned by George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman and Mark Mathiesen, and he was ridden by apprentice jockey J.C. Diaz in his maiden victory.
Family ties: A Kentucky-bred, Nadal was sold for $700,000 last year and is the son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame, who was the only horse ever to beat fan favorite Zenyatta. Nadal’s damsire is Pulpit, the 1997 Blue Grass Stakes winner who finished fourth in that year’s Kentucky Derby.
What’s next?: Baffert has not confirmed the date or location of Nadal’s next race.
Storm the Court
William Hill odds: 12-1
Why he’s here: No early list of Kentucky Derby contenders would be complete without the reigning 2-year-old champion, and Storm the Court earned that title by going wire to wire to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November as a 45-1 shot. Before that, he won his first start at Del Mar, lost his jockey next time out, and was a well-beaten third in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes. All four of his races have come in California.
Connections: Longtime California trainer Peter Eurton’s only previous Kentucky Derby starter was Dance With Fate, who finished sixth in 2014 after winning the Blue Grass Stakes earlier that spring. Exline-Border Racing — connections that have teamed up with Eurton in the past — is the primary owner in the partnership behind Storm the Court, and Flavien Prat has ridden him in all four races. The 27-year-old jockey was aboard Country House, the declared winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby following the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Family ties: Storm the Court’s sire is Court Vision, who was 13th in the 2008 Derby near the beginning of what turned out to be a prolific turf career that featured several Grade 1 victories, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Hollywood Derby (the latter run at the same distance as the Kentucky Derby). Storm the Court’s damsire, Tejano Run, was second in the 1995 Kentucky Derby. Storm the Court was bred in Kentucky, and his late May 5 foaling date means he won’t even turn 3 years old until three days after this year’s Derby.
What’s next?: He looks prepared to kick off his 2020 campaign next weekend in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
Thousand Words
William Hill odds: 12-1
Why he’s here: Another Bob Baffert contender, Thousand Words looks like the Hall of Fame trainer’s best shot — at this stage in the prep season — to win a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby. Following a victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity last month, Baffert had this to say: “What I like about this horse is he has a big, long stride. First time around two turns and when he came back he wasn’t even blowing. The last time I had a horse like that his name was Arrogate.” Arrogate, of course, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic as a 3-year-old in 2016 after beginning his racing career just a couple of weeks before that year’s Derby. Thousand Words is undefeated in two starts.
Connections: Baffert trains Thousand Words for Albaugh Family Stables — owner of Dennis’ Moment — and B. Wayne Hughes’ Spendthrift Farm. Last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning jockey, Flavien Prat, has ridden Thousand Words in both of his races.
Family ties: A Florida-bred colt, Thousand Words is the son of Pioneerof the Nile, who won the Santa Anita Derby for Baffert and placed second in the Kentucky Derby in 2009. More recently, Pioneerof the Nile was the sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Thousand Words’ dam, Pomeroys Pistol, was a successful sprinter during her racing career. He was a $1 million purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2018.
What’s next?: Thousand Words will make his 3-year-old debut as the expected favorite in Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
Tiz the Law
William Hill odds: 8-1
Why he’s here: Tiz the Law was an easy winner of his first two races — including the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park — last fall before finishing third as the 3-5 favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 30. He was bottled up behind the leaders over a sloppy track for most of that race in Louisville, dealing with mud in his face for much of the way. He’ll make his 2020 debut this weekend, and he came into the week as the top betting choice for the Derby, according to the William Hill futures odds.
Connections: Trainer Barclay Tagg won the Kentucky Derby for Sackatoga Stable in his first try with the gelding Funny Cide back in 2003, but he’s had just four Derby starters since — with none in the past 12 years. Sackatoga Stable, which still counts Funny Cide as its only Derby starter, also owns Tiz the Law. Manuel Franco has ridden Tiz the Law in each of his past two starts, and — if he can get him to Derby Day — would be looking for his first big opportunity in the race. The 25-year-old jockey was 18th aboard Spinoff last year and 17th aboard Tencendur in 2015. Both had final odds of 52-1.
Family ties: A New York bred, Tiz the Law is the son of the aforementioned Constitution, who has emerged as a star stallion. Tiz the Law’s dam is Tizfiz, a daughter of the great Tiznow.
What’s next?: Tiz the Law will return to the track Saturday at Gulfstream Park as the expected favorite in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, the same race that began Funny Cide’s 3-year-old season 17 years ago.
Ten more to watch
Since the Kentucky Derby allows for a maximum of 20 entrants, here are 10 other contenders to watch as the prep season heats up (including the latest William Hill odds):
▪ Authentic (16-1) is another Bob Baffert trainee and coming off a nearly 8-length victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this month, though distance might be an issue for the lightly raced (2-for-2) colt.
▪ Ajaaweed (50-1) — a son of Curlin — was impressive late in the stretch for a runner-up finish to Shotski (another interesting Derby contender) in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last month. Lexington native Kiaran McLaughlin is his trainer.
▪ Calumet Farm homebred Blackberry Wine (75-1) is bred for the Derby distance — Oxbow is his sire, and A.P. Indy is his damsire — and could take the next step for trainer Joe Sharp in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 15.
▪ Yet another Baffert trainee, Eight Rings (15-1) was a Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old but finished a puzzling sixth as the 3-2 second choice in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Baffert wasn’t thrilled with his training after that. The Rebel Stakes in March could be his return race.
▪ The Todd Pletcher-trained Gouverneur Morris (30-1) was the final cut from our top-10 list. He was the runner-up in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Futurity at Keeneland in October despite a less-than-ideal trip. There’s been no confirmation on his 3-year-old debut.
▪ Honor A.P. (14-1) remains one of the top choices on the futures boards despite not racing since winning a maiden race in October and missing the recent Sham Stakes with a foot injury. Honor A.P. is back in training, but 2005 Derby-winning trainer John Shirreffs hasn’t named his next race.
▪ Silver Prospector (35-1) won last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs for trainer Steve Asmussen, but he was a well-beaten fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes last weekend, though the off track that day might have been a factor.
▪ Undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor is not listed in the latest William Hill odds, though he remains an intriguing Derby contender given trainer Chad Brown’s past comments about a possible move to dirt, a surface that should suit him well.
▪ Three Technique (35-1) has finished first or second in each of his five career starts, including a runner-up showing in last weekend’s Smarty Jones Stakes that could prove as a launching pad to bigger things this spring.
▪ Tizamagician (50-1) is one to keep an eye on in Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes after breaking his maiden on the sixth try earlier this month for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, whose would-be Derby favorite Omaha Beach needed five starts to win his first race last year.
