Road to the Kentucky Derby: Top contenders as prep season hits a crucial stretch
Two weeks ago marked the beginning of the 50-point prep races for the Kentucky Derby, and the next three Saturdays should further establish the true contenders on this year’s trail.
Next up is the Fountain of Youth Stakes — headlined by the return of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite Dennis’ Moment — with the Gotham Stakes, San Felipe Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Rebel Stakes to follow over the next two weekends.
These 50-point races are basically win-and-you’re-in events for the Kentucky Derby, a victory in any of them likely enough to secure a spot in the top 20 of the points standings.
Here’s an updated look at 10 top contenders (with additional info on 10 more promising 3-year-olds). The William Hill sportsbook has provided its latest futures odds, and the Herald-Leader will continue to update this top-10 list as the road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby continues.
Authentic
William Hill odds: 12-1.
Why he’s here: He’s trained by five-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert — like many of this year’s top contenders — and he’s still perfect, if lightly raced. Authentic is 2-for-2 for his young career, highlighted by a nearly 8-length victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last month. The runner-up in that race, Azul Coast, came back to win the El Camino Real Derby a couple of weeks ago. There are questions as to whether Authentic can go the Kentucky Derby distance of 1¼ miles, but he’s done no wrong so far.
What’s next? The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 7.
Dennis’ Moment
William Hill odds: 8-1.
Why he’s here: Dennis’ Moment looked destined to be the 2-year-old champion until he stumbled badly out of the gate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, a terrible start that ended with a last-place finish. He hasn’t raced since, so his return to competition this weekend will be one of the most-anticipated moments of the entire prep season. He’s won a graded stakes at Churchill Downs before and, if he returns to his old form Saturday, he’ll solidify his status as one of the biggest threats for this year’s Derby. His trainer — Louisville native Dale Romans — has never had a winner in his hometown classic in 10 previous attempts.
What’s next? The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Enforceable
William Hill odds: 20-1.
Why he’s here: He now has just two wins in eight career starts following a runner-up finish to Mr. Monomoy in one of the Risen Star Stakes divisional races, but the son of three-time leading sire Tapit has the bloodlines to thrive at the classic distances. Enforceable also has the same mother, Justwhistledixie, as 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion New Year’s Day, now better known as the sire of Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Enforceable finished well in his Risen Star defeat and has the look of a colt who could be in the mix in the Kentucky Derby stretch for trainer Mark Casse. If he continues to progress between now and Derby Day — when he should get a quicker pace better suited to his running style — watch out.
What’s next?: The Louisiana Derby on March 21.
Gouverneur Morris
William Hill odds: 15-1.
Why he’s here: An intriguing colt who’s taking an interesting path to a possible Kentucky Derby start, Gouverneur Morris is coming off a solid victory in an allowance race a couple of weeks back, and trainer Todd Pletcher has said he’s likely to give him just one opportunity in a Derby points race this year to prove he belongs in the starting gate. The son of a top emerging sire (Constitution) placed second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall despite a less-than-ideal trip. The decision to start his 2020 campaign in a non-points race means that Gouverneur Morris will need a win or runner-up finish in his first real Derby prep — or Pletcher will have to change the plan — to make the big race in May.
What’s next? There’s been no confirmation as to where the Gouverneur will run next, and all options appear to be on the table for what’s likely to be his one shot at Derby points.
Mr. Monomoy
William Hill odds: 20-1.
Why he’s here: The Risen Star Stakes — split into two divisions this year — is the only 50-point Derby prep race that has been run so far, and Mr. Monomoy’s victory in the first division was the more impressive. He broke his maiden last year at Churchill Downs, and if the name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s a half-brother to the great Monomoy Girl, who won the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2018, among other Grade 1 victories. Like his sister, Mr. Monomoy is trained by Louisville native Brad Cox, who has never had a Derby starter. Mr. Monomoy’s sire is 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice.
What’s next? Cox could keep Mr. Monomoy at Fair Grounds for a run in the Louisiana Derby (March 21) or ship him to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (April 4).
Nadal
William Hill odds: 10-1.
Why he’s here: Bob Baffert has several talented contenders for a record-tying sixth Derby victory, but it’s this colt — Nadal, who didn’t make his debut until last month and still hasn’t entered a Derby points race — that many see as the trainer’s best chance. Nadal ran a 98 Beyer speed figure — second-fastest among the top Derby contenders — in his debut Jan. 19 before coming back three weeks later to win the Grade 2 San Vicente at 7 furlongs. The biggest tests are still ahead for Nadal, who will face a loaded field and a longer distance (1 1/16 miles) in his next start.
What’s next? The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on March 14 will mark the expected return of Nadal, who has never raced outside of Santa Anita Park.
Silver Prospector
William Hill odds: 30-1.
Why he’s here: He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall but finished fourth in last month’s Smarty Jones Stakes, his 2020 debut. Silver Prospector came back to win the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last week in impressive fashion — earning a 97 Beyer figure — with jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has 20 career Kentucky Derby starters but is still looking for his first victory, the highest total in Derby history without a win.
What’s next? The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 14.
Sole Volante
William Hill odds: 12-1.
Why he’s here: Sole Volante announced his presence as a legitimate Derby contender with a sensational victory from well off the pace in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes this month. He earned a 96 Beyer figure for that effort, but, more importantly, it was a visually stunning run that showed a tremendous turn of foot and generally checked the boxes of what a Kentucky Derby winner is supposed to look like. The Kentucky-bred — trained by Patrick Biancone — is the son of Karakontie, a former Breeders’ Cup Mile winner who had multiple Group 1 wins in Europe.
What’s next? The Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.
Thousand Words
William Hill odds: 10-1.
Why he’s here: Another Bob Baffert-trainee that has yet to lose a race, Thousand Words is 3-for-3 on the track and coming off a victory in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes this month. Baffert has already compared him to his former champion Arrogate, and Thousand Words is the son of another Baffert-trainee, Pioneerof the Nile, who was the Kentucky Derby runner-up 11 years ago. He showed a ton of grit in the stretch run of the Robert B. Lewis and appears set for a matchup with fellow undefeated stablemate Authentic next weekend.
What’s next? The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 7.
Tiz the Law
William Hill odds: 6-1.
Why he’s here: There’s still much to be settled in the 2020 Derby prep season, but this is the consensus favorite. Tiz the Law was dominant in his 3-year-old debut, a 3-length victory in the Holy Bull Stakes this month that earned him a 100 Beyer figure, the highest of all the established Derby contenders. He’s trained by Barclay Tagg — who won the Derby with Funny Cide in 2003 — and has the breeding for the Derby distance. Tiz the Law’s only loss in four races did come at Churchill Downs — a third-place finish over a sloppy track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall — but the New York-bred is now firmly at the top of the Derby contenders list and has the shortest odds on the William Hill line.
What’s next? The Florida Derby on March 28 will be his next race and final Derby prep.
Ten more to watch
Since the Kentucky Derby allows for a maximum of 20 entrants, here are 10 other contenders to watch as the prep season continues (including the latest William Hill odds):
▪ How about a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah for this year’s Derby field? Cafe Pharoah could make that happen after an impressive win in a Japanese Road to the Derby race this past weekend. He missed the start but rallied from last place in the 14-horse field — running down several others in the stretch — to earn the victory. The Kentucky-bred is not yet on the William Hill odds sheet, but he’s certainly one to watch this spring.
▪ Chance It (20-1) — the 7-2 second choice to Dennis’ Moment on the morning line for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes — has a pedigree more geared toward shorter distances, but he’s already won two races at a mile or longer. His most recent performance — a victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4 — netted a 99 Beyer, and he beat top Derby contender Sole Volante in that one.
▪ The hot new name in Bob Baffert’s barn is Charlatan, who earned an eye-popping 105 Beyer figure in his career debut Feb. 16. (For comparison’s sake: Triple Crown winner Justify earned a 104 Beyer for Baffert in his career debut as a 3-year-old on Feb. 18, 2018). Charlatan’s next step is unclear, but he’s already down to 12-1 in the William Hill odds off just that one start.
▪ Honor A.P. (14-1) broke his maiden with a rousing run in October but hasn’t raced since due to a foot injury. He’s due back on the track for Derby-winning trainer John Shirreffs in next weekend’s San Felipe Stakes, a stiff test for a talented colt that has impressed in recent workouts.
▪ Independence Hall (12-1) won three straight races to start his career before suffering his first defeat, a second-place finish to Sole Volante in the Sam F. Davis Stakes a few weeks ago. He remains a legitimate Derby threat.
▪ There’s not much time left for Maxfield (10-1) to make an impression on the Derby trail, but it’s too early to count him out just yet. The son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense won the loaded Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall but was then sidelined with an ankle injury. He’s had two recent workouts, but there’s still no confirmed date for his return to racing.
▪ Modernist (40-1) won the other division of last weekend’s Risen Star Stakes, probably earning enough points to make the final Derby field in May. His next race should be next month’s Louisiana Derby. His trainer is Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won last year’s controversial Kentucky Derby with Country House.
▪ Reigning 2-year-old champion Storm the Court (22-1) saw his Derby buzz take a hit with a fourth-place finish in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes this month, but it’s too early to write him off. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner should be better suited for longer distances, and he’ll get a shot at redemption in the loaded San Felipe Stakes next weekend.
▪ Three Technique (25-1) is on track for the Rebel Stakes on March 14 following his runner-up finish in last month’s Smarty Jones Stakes, his first race outside of New York. The Kentucky-bred is owned by Hall of Fame football coach Bill Parcells.
▪ Looking for an early long shot? Wells Bayou (100-1) was impressive setting the pace in the recent Southwest Stakes. He couldn’t keep up with Silver Prospector in the stretch, but he stayed up for second place and never quit running. He should get another shot at Derby points against stout competition in the Rebel Stakes on March 14.
Note: Check out the first installment of our “Road to the Kentucky Derby” feature from earlier this month for additional information regarding the human connections and family history of many of these Derby contenders.
