Kentucky Derby Watch: Ranking the top 10 contenders heading into a big weekend
The prep season for this year’s Kentucky Derby enters a critical final stretch this weekend, with the first 100-point race on the road to the May 1 classic at Churchill Downs.
The Louisiana Derby is set for Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, a race that could vault the winner into the top tier of Kentucky Derby hopefuls while shuffling some 3-year-olds out of the picture altogether.
Here’s a ranking of the top 10 Derby contenders going into this weekend — three of these will be running in the Louisiana Derby — and a look at 10 more to watch in the coming weeks, with three 100-point races to follow next weekend. (Odds provided to the Herald-Leader by the William Hill sportsbook).
1. Life Is Good
Odds: 7-2.
Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Regular jockey: Mike Smith.
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Beach Walk by Distorted Humor.
The drifting in the stretch of the San Felipe Stakes last month gives a bit of pause, but it’s important to remember that it was just the third career start for Life Is Good, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers on his way to Churchill Downs. His San Felipe victory — by more than 8 lengths over what was supposed to be an impressive field — earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. The second-best Beyer from a 3-year-old this year was a 101, also courtesy of Life Is Good in the Sham Stakes on Jan. 3. The son of Into Mischief — sire of last year’s Derby winner, Authentic — has Hall of Famers Baffert and Smith in his corner and, seemingly, all the talent in the world. Life Is Good finished as the 2-1 favorite in the most recent Derby Future Wager, the biggest favorite at this stage of the prep season in the 23-year history of that pool. He’s won all three of his starts in gate-to-wire fashion.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on April 3.
2. Concert Tour
Odds: 6-1.
Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario.
Pedigree: Street Sense — Purse Strings by Tapit.
This ranking might seem premature — and perhaps it is — but there was just something about the way Concert Tour came home in the Rebel Stakes, which he led from the start and won by more than 4 lengths last weekend. It was just his third career race, but he looked like a veteran throughout, and he has all-star connections in Baffert and Rosario, with a Derby-winning sire in Street Sense and a pedigree that suggests he’ll have no problems as the distances get longer. The most impressive aspect of Saturday’s win might’ve been the way he so easily dispatched race favorite Caddo River — viewed among the top Derby contenders until that point — leaving no doubt by the end as to who was the class of the field.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10 is expected to be his next start.
3. Essential Quality
Odds: 4-1.
Trainer: Brad Cox.
Regular jockey: Luis Saez.
Pedigree: Tapit — Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality.
The reigning, undefeated champ at No. 3 on the list? It might be too low, and Essential Quality has a good argument to be in the top spot, but that’s just an example of how talented the elite tier of 3-year-olds could be. The gray son of Tapit made his first start of 2021 with a no-doubt victory on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes last month. And that came after his training calendar was upended due to inclement weather. He has four wins in four starts, including his maiden victory on Derby Day 2020 — at Churchill Downs, no less — and the next two at Keeneland, both Grade 1 wins (the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). Louisville native Brad Cox brings him back to Kentucky for the Blue Grass Stakes in a couple of weeks, and these top three could very well be reshuffled after the upcoming round of 100-point preps. If Essential Quality, Life Is Good and Concert Tour all win their respective races — and look good doing so — there’s bound to be a spirited debate heading into May 1.
What’s next? The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
4. Mandaloun
Odds: 16-1.
Trainer: Brad Cox.
Regular jockey: Florent Geroux.
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Brooch by Empire Maker.
A winning effort in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby — where Mandaloun is the morning-line favorite — could push him into the conversation with the top three on this list. Only two 3-year-olds — California-based Life Is Good and Medina Spirit — have a higher Beyer so far this year, and Mandaloun’s speed figures have improved each time out in his four-race career. He showed plenty of promise in winning the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds last month, his first race with blinkers, and has the look and pedigree of a colt who should thrive as these races get longer. The Louisiana Derby, at 1 3/16 miles, is the longest of the American prep races, and he’ll have plenty of talented competition there.
What’s next? The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday.
5. Greatest Honour
Odds: 8-1.
Trainer: Shug McGaughey.
Regular jockey: Jose Ortiz.
Pedigree: Tapit — Tiffany’s Honour by Street Cry.
The speed figures didn’t do much to back it up — an 89 Beyer, for instance — but Greatest Honour looked mighty impressive skipping through the stretch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month after looking like a beaten favorite in the final turn just a few seconds earlier. His style is to come from off the pace, which hasn’t been the most effective on Derby Day in recent years, but Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey did send Orb to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle in 2013 employing a similar approach. Greatest Honour could be a colt on the come up, and he should be another who loves the extra distance. There is some question over the quality of competition he’s beaten so far, but you can’t argue with the final results.
What’s next? The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 27.
6. Medina Spirit
Odds: 16-1.
Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Regular jockey: John Velazquez.
Pedigree: Protonico — Mongolian Changa by Brilliant Speed.
This colt has grit, there’s no doubt about that. He has real talent, too, it just hasn’t been enough to catch superstar stablemate Life Is Good in either of the times they’ve met on the track. Medina Spirit gave it a valiant effort in the stretch in the Sham Stakes on Jan. 2 — putting up a 99 Beyer and losing by less than a length — but Life Is Good won in a rout in the San Felipe Stakes this month. Medina Spirit finished 8 lengths back in second, the only horse in what looked to be a talented field to finish within 10 lengths of the winner. It’s difficult to see how he makes up enough ground on Life Is Good over the next few weeks, but it’s also tough to knock him too far down this list. Medina Spirit might get a third shot at him next month.
What’s next? Unconfirmed, though the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on April 3 is among the possibilities.
7. Proxy
Odds: 45-1.
Trainer: Michael Stidham.
Regular jockey: John Velazquez.
Pedigree: Tapit — Panty Raid by Include.
A colt with upside and a relatively long price at the moment, Proxy has finished second in each of the first two Fair Grounds preps — behind Mandaloun and ahead of Midnight Bourbon in one, behind Midnight Bourbon and ahead of Mandaloun in the other — and he gets another shot in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday evening. His pedigree suggests he should do well at the longer distances, so Saturday’s run — going an extra sixteenth of a mile against good competition — should be telling. His speed numbers have improved over every one of his five starts so far, and his 97 Beyer last time out is fourth-best in this group so far (better than Essential Quality, Concert Tour and Greatest Honour).
What’s next? The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday.
8. Hot Rod Charlie
Odds: 30-1.
Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario.
Pedigree: Oxbow — Indian Miss by Indian Charlie.
Hot Rod Charlie proved his runner-up finish to Essential Quality at 94-1 odds in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was no fluke with a strong third-place finish — beaten by only a neck — behind Medina Spirit in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30. He’ll face another tough test Saturday, joining Fair Grounds contingent Mandaloun, Proxy and Midnight Bourbon in the Louisiana Derby. Hot Rod Charlie has just one win in six career starts, but he looks every bit the part of a colt who could be a factor on Derby Day. Assistant Leandro Mora will be the trainer of record for Saturday’s race due to a recent suspension for two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill, who was disciplined for a drug positive last fall in another one of his horses.
What’s next? The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday.
9. Prevalence
Odds: 14-1.
Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Regular jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro — Enrichment by Ghostzapper.
Prevalence burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a tremendous effort in his career debut, easily winning a 12-horse maiden race at Gulfstream Park by more than 8 lengths in late January. His Derby future was then clouded by a brief illness that scrambled the plans, but the Godolphin homebred returned to the track last week with another easy victory in a Gulfstream allowance race. To the eyes, Prevalence looks like a possible star out of this 3-year-old group, but he hasn’t really been asked to do anything yet, and — with zero Derby points due to his late start — he’ll probably get just one shot to show he’s ready. Trainer Brendan Walsh had a top Derby contender in Maxfield last year before that colt was sidelined from the trail due to injury. Might he get another real shot with Prevalence?
What’s next? No confirmation yet, but the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial (both April 3) and Arkansas Derby (April 10) are still on the table.
10. Highly Motivated
Odds: 25-1.
Trainer: Chad Brown.
Regular jockey: Javier Castellano.
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Strong Incentive by Warrior’s Reward.
Highly Motivated was a star on the undercard on 2-year-old day of Breeders’ Cup weekend at Keeneland last year — winning the 6 ½-furlong Nyquist Stakes impressively — but he finished a disappointing third in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 6 following a four-month layoff. That result isn’t as bad as it sounds, however. Highly Motivated steadied and was shuffled back in the early going and never really seemed comfortable until the very end as he tried to run down Weyburn and Crowded Trade at the wire. This son of Into Mischief clearly has talent, and — after such a long layoff — it’ll be interesting to see what he shows next time out. Trainer Chad Brown is sending him back to Keeneland — the site of his dominating victory last fall — for what could be a date with class champion Essential Quality.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
Other Kentucky Derby contenders
A quick look at more than a dozen other 3-year-olds to keep an eye on this spring:
▪ Risk Taking (20-1) is also trained by Chad Brown and should be among the Wood Memorial favorites April 3 coming off his win in the Withers Stakes last month.
▪ Weyburn (100-1) beat odds-on favorite Highly Motivated as a 46-1 shot in the Gotham Stakes, putting up a 95 Beyer — only seven Derby contenders have done better so far — in that race. He’s also pointed toward the Wood Memorial for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.
▪ Crowded Trade (75-1) — also trained by Chad Brown — finished a nose behind Weyburn in the Gotham and is yet another Wood Memorial probable. The son of More Than Ready has just two career starts, so the intrigue and upside is there.
▪ Brooklyn Strong (50-1) — trained by Daniel Velazquez — also looks pointed toward the Wood Memorial, which would be his first race since winning the Remsen Stakes in early December after being sidelined due to illness and inclement weather.
▪ Midnight Bourbon (45-1) will be one to watch in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday, but he’ll need to fare well against rivals Mandaloun and Proxy — as well as Fair Grounds new shooter Hot Rod Charlie — to prove he belongs in the Kentucky Derby conversation. Steve Asmussen trains the son of Tiznow.
▪ Spielberg (45-1) has been inconsistent, to put it mildly, but the Bob Baffert-trainee again showed his promise with a runner-up finish to Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes despite a poor start. No plans on his next start have been finalized.
▪ Helium (25-1) won two races in Ontario before taking the Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Mark Casse this month, and — with enough Derby points to qualify for the starting gate — Casse has indicated that he’s likely to train the son of Ironicus up until the May 1 race. That would be a 56-day layoff. No Kentucky Derby winner — with official records on this stat going back to 1929 — has come off a layoff that long.
▪ Collaborate (35-1) is a buzz horse out of the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr. after breaking his maiden with a 12-length win at Gulfstream Park last month. The Florida Derby — and one big shot at Derby points — is up next for the son of Into Mischief.
▪ Dream Shake (40-1) was no match for Life Is Good in the San Felipe — finishing a couple lengths behind Medina Spirit in third — but it was just his second career race after debuting Feb. 7. The son of Twirling Candy has put up 90-plus Beyers in both career starts, and Bob Baffert will point him toward a 100-point prep race next.
▪ Hozier (25-1) is one more for Baffert and the runner-up finisher to Concert Tour in last weekend’s Rebel Stakes, which was the first start for the son of Pioneerof the Nile after breaking his maiden just four weeks earlier.
▪ Big Lake (no odds yet) finished third in the Rebel Stakes for Steve Asmussen, and — while he wasn’t going to catch Concert Tour — he would’ve been closer at the finish had he not been driven off stride by a tiring Caddo River. No confirmation yet on his next start.
▪ Rombauer (75-1) won the El Camino Real Derby in his 3-year-old debut last month but trainer Michael McCarthy has yet to pick a spot for his next race.
▪ Hidden Stash (28-1) — trained by Victoria Oliver — keeps popping up in the Derby conversation, but the son of Constitution didn’t win either of the more lightly regarded Tampa Bay preps he entered and is running out of time to make an impression.
▪ Rock Your World (no odds yet) is one to watch out in California, where trainer John Sadler is flirting with the idea of running the budding turf star in the Santa Anita Derby (or some other major prep race) with an eye on the first Saturday in May.
▪ Winter favorites Caddo River (75-1) and Keepmeinmind (50-1) finished a disappointing fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Rebel Stakes, but both will stay on the Derby trail, with Caddo River already confirmed for the Arkansas Derby for trainer Brad Cox.
