Kentucky Derby Watch: A newcomer jumps up top-10 rankings ahead of epic preps weekend
The first weekend to feature multiple 100-point races on the Kentucky Derby trail supplied a notable upset in Florida and several new contenders for the first Saturday in May.
Greatest Honour was dethroned as the king of the Gulfstream Park prep circuit with a third-place finish behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, and Rebel’s Romance (UAE Derby) and Like the King (Jeff Ruby Steaks) claimed their spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate with decisive victories.
Here’s an updated look at the Derby rankings — along with notes on many more contenders — going into the biggest weekend on the prep calendar, with the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial all on tap for Saturday. (And the latest odds provided to the Herald-Leader by the William Hill sportsbook):
1. Concert Tour
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Odds: 5-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Street Sense — Purse Strings by Tapit
Concert Tour returned to the Santa Anita track Saturday for his first workout since winning the Rebel Stakes March 13 and went a smooth 5 furlongs in 1:00.80. “He couldn’t have looked any better,” trainer Bob Baffert said of his latest top 3-year-old contender. The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense looks to have plenty left in the tank for next weekend’s Arkansas Derby. Undefeated in three starts so far, Concert Tour is a homebred for Gary and Mary West, who — for a few minutes — thought they had won their first Kentucky Derby with Maximum Security two years ago before that colt was controversially DQ’d. Concert Tour showed enough in his professional Rebel Stakes victory to earn this No. 1 spot. He also looks like one who could take another big step forward by May 1.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10.
2. Essential Quality
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Odds: 7-2
Trainer: Brad Cox
Regular jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Tapit — Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality
This gray colt will be No. 1 in most Derby rankings at the moment, and deservedly so. Essential Quality remains the undefeated and reigning champion for this group following his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory at Keeneland last fall and his triumphant return in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 27. He’s been working impressively at Fair Grounds since then and returns to Keeneland this weekend for what should be a solid test ahead of next month’s Kentucky Derby. “Very happy with where he is mentally, physically,” trainer and Louisville native Brad Cox said Tuesday after Essential Quality drew the No. 4 post and was named the 3-5 favorite for the Blue Grass Stakes. He also finished as the 4-1 favorite in the final Derby future wager pool last weekend, just ahead of Concert Tour at 5-1. As of now, those two are looking like the clear class for this year’s race.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.
3. Known Agenda
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 7-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Regular jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pedigree: Curlin — Byrama by Byron
Known Agenda was nearly counted out as a top Derby contender following a fifth-place finish as the 3-2 favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Tampa Bay earlier this year, a race in which he attempted to come from the back of the 12-horse field and came up well short. He returned three weeks later to win an allowance race by 11 lengths and went into Saturday’s Florida Derby as the third choice in the 11-horse field. There, he tucked in on the rail not far off the leaders, waited patiently for an opening under Irad Ortiz Jr., and gave it a big run once he finally got some room coming out of the final turn. The victory earned him a 94 Beyer and an Equibase speed figure of 112, the latter marking the highest for a Florida Derby since Quality Road and Big Brown ran the same number in 2009 and 2008, respectively. Todd Pletcher, who has a record 55 Kentucky Derby starters — and two winners, Super Saver and Always Dreaming — will bring another interesting colt to Churchill Downs this spring.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
4. Hot Rod Charlie
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Oxbow — Indian Miss by Indian Charlie
Hot Rod Charlie punched his Derby ticket with a convincing victory in the Louisiana Derby two weekends ago and will train from there up to Churchill Downs on May 1. Since transitioning from turf to dirt, Charlie has won two of his four races, with the defeats coming in the form of a runner-up finish to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a third-place finish — beaten by just a neck — behind Medina Spirit after a nearly three-month layoff. His 99 Beyer for the Louisiana Derby win is the highest of any horse on the Derby trail, and his trainer, Doug O’Neill, has won the Derby twice already (I’ll Have Another and Nyquist).
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
5. Medina Spirit
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Protonico — Mongolian Changa by Brilliant Speed
With star stablemate Life Is Good removed from Kentucky Derby consideration due to a minor injury, we might finally get to see what Medina Spirit is capable of. Life Is Good has beaten Medina Spirit twice this year — including an 8-length rout last time out — but the runner-up in both of those races has a never-quit demeanor, and he can prove himself as the class of the West Coast contingent moving forward with a big run this weekend. Medina Spirit worked 4 furlongs in :48.00 at Santa Anita Park on Sunday. Even with no Life Is Good in the starting gate next to him, he’ll face a lot of talent Saturday in what looks to be the most intriguing 100-point prep race of the year.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
6. Greatest Honour
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Regular jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Tapit — Tiffany’s Honour by Street Cry
Greatest Honour remains a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat, but Saturday’s run in the Florida Derby served as a microcosm for just how difficult it could be to win with his come-from-behind style May 1. Like usual, Greatest Honour went toward the back of the pack Saturday before unleashing what appeared to be a big run heading toward the final turn. Problem: he made that move on the rail, and Jose Ortiz had to pump the brakes or else run right into the back of Known Agenda. The momentum was gone, and a hole never really opened up until they were all straightened out in the stretch. By that point, it was too late, Greatest Honour didn’t have enough left — or he was simply tired of looking for room to run — and he finished third. Shug McGaughey won the Derby using a similar style eight years ago with Orb, but recent Derby winners have typically come from closer to the pace. Still, the Hall of Fame trainer didn’t seem too deterred after Saturday’s loss, noting that he would have preferred an outside position a bit closer to the lead for Greatest Honour but signaling he would be ready to go for Derby Day. Some good news for fans of this colt: You’ll now get a longer price at the betting windows May 1, and if he can get a somewhat clean trip, he could very well win it.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
7. Prevalence
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Odds: 14-1
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Regular jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro — Enrichment by Ghostzapper
There’s not much more to say about this promising Godolphin homebred until we see him on the track against high-level company, which will finally happen this weekend. To recap: Prevalence wowed in his career debut Jan. 23, got knocked out of training with a brief illness, then returned with a convincing win in an allowance race. He has all the hype behind him going into this weekend’s Wood Memorial, but he has zero Derby qualifying points and will need a win or runner-up finish in the Wood to make the May 1 field. If he can’t do that, he probably doesn’t belong anyway. Despite just two career starts — and none against stakes company — Prevalence had the sixth-shortest odds in the final Derby future wager pool this past weekend. His final workout before the Wood? Four furlongs in :47.60 at Palm Meadows on Sunday to keep the hype train rolling.
What’s next? The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday.
8. Dream Shake
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Odds: 60-1
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Twirling Candy — Even Song by Street Cry
Another intriguing colt with just two starts next to his name, Dream Shake broke his maiden with a 96 Beyer — same as Essential Quality’s career best — in his debut Feb. 7 before finishing 10 lengths behind Life Is Good in the San Felipe Stakes last month. Next up is the Santa Anita Derby, where Dream Shake should be among the favorites coming off a pair of impressive workouts over the past two weekends, including a bullet :58.20 over 5 furlongs, the fastest of 75 works at that distance March 20.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
9. Highly Motivated
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Odds: 26-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Regular jockey: Javier Castellano
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Strong Incentive by Warrior’s Reward
The upside countdown continues with Highly Motivated, whose winter was knocked slightly off course, leading to a four-month layoff before a third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes last month. He returns this weekend to Keeneland — home of his impressive victory on the Breeders’ Cup undercard last fall — and should be the top competition for undefeated champ Essential Quality. With just one disappointing start on his 2021 record so far, he’s not nearly as proven as those at the top of this list, but he has plenty of promise for four-time trainer of the year Chad Brown, who is looking for his first Derby starter since Good Magic finished second to Justify three years ago.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.
10. Rock Your World
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Odds: 35-1
Trainer: John Sadler
Regular jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Candy Ride — Charm the Maker by Empire Maker
No starts on dirt but oozing potential, Rock Your World is set to make his racing debut on the surface for trainer John Sadler in the Santa Anita Derby this weekend. He’s 2-for-2 on grass — including a victory in the Pasadena Stakes on Feb. 27 — and turned in a final workout of :59.20 over 5 furlongs on the Santa Anita dirt Sunday, the fastest of 82 works at the distance that day. “He’s ready to run,” Sadler said. We’re ready to watch.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
Others to watch on the Kentucky Derby trail (with latest odds from the William Hill sportsbook) ...
Florida Derby fallout
Finishing between Known Agenda and Greatest Honour at Gulfstream Park on Saturday was Soup and Sandwich (60-1), who came into the race as a live long shot at 20-1 on the morning line and didn’t fail to disappoint for trainer Mark Casse, who will point the son of Into Mischief — sire of last year’s Derby winner Authentic — to Churchill Downs on May 1. Soup and Sandwich was 2-for-2 before the Florida Derby runner-up finish and didn’t make his career debut until Jan. 28.
Collaborate, the only horse to fall out of last week’s top 10 rankings, finished fifth in the Florida Derby and won’t make the Kentucky Derby field. Southwest Stakes runner-up Spielberg, trained by Bob Baffert, never factored into the Florida Derby, finishing eighth.
Weekend recap
Rebel’s Romance (no odds yet) got the Saturday prep schedule started with an impressive win in the UAE Derby in Dubai. The race has produced 15 past Kentucky Derby starters, with none of those horses finishing better than fifth on Derby Day. The Irish-bred son of Dubawi has Street Cry as a damsire and would be another intriguing international shipper for the Derby, though Godolphin already has current favorite Essential Quality and could have another top contender in Prevalence for the May 1 race. It’s not yet been finalized whether Rebel’s Romance — trained by Charlie Appleby — will actually go to Churchill Downs.
Like the King (100-1) ruled the Jeff Ruby Steaks over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, and trainer Wesley Ward will point him toward the Kentucky Derby next. The son of 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice finished second to Blue Grass Stakes contender Hush of a Storm at Turfway in February, his first start of 2021. Like the King has run four of his six career races on either turf or synthetic surfaces (he has three wins and one runner-up in those races) and he’s finished second and third in his only two dirt starts. He’ll probably be one of the longest shots on Derby Day. Sainthood (125-1) — son of Mshawish — earned 40 Derby points for his runner-up finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, and that should be enough to make the Kentucky Derby if trainer Todd Pletcher wants him there.
Blue Grass Stakes contenders
Essential Quality and Highly Motivated top the field at Keeneland on Saturday, but there are other realistic Derby hopefuls in the mix as well. Keepmeinmind (35-1) finished third behind Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and then won the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs for trainer Robertino Diodoro. He was sixth in the Rebel Stakes last month, but that came off a nearly four-month layoff with a training schedule that was upended by inclement weather.
Untreated (no odds yet) is a son of Nyquist coming off an impressive maiden win for Todd Pletcher last month, and he’ll be one to watch in his first run against stakes company. Hush of a Storm (150-1) has won three straight on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park and takes a big swing at Derby points here. Rombauer (65-1) is coming off a win in the El Camino Real Derby in February, and Hidden Stash (30-1) — a son of Constitution trained by Victoria Oliver — remains a buzz horse in Derby conversations following a runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Santa Anita Derby hopefuls
Medina Spirit, Dream Shake and Rock Your World were all covered in the top-10 rankings. Two other big names will be looking for redemption at Santa Anita on Saturday.
Roman Centurian (75-1) — a son of Empire Maker — is coming off a fourth-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes that was dominated by Life Is Good after nearly defeating Medina Spirit in his previous race. The Great One (75-1) — a son of Nyquist — is trained by Doug O’Neill and was fifth in the San Felipe but warrants another look Saturday.
Wood Memorial intrigue
Prevalence carries plenty of intrigue into the Wood Memorial, but Saturday’s race also features a deep field packed with possible Derby contenders.
Risk Taking (28-1) — a son of Medaglia d’Oro and trained by Chad Brown — is coming off a convincing win in the Withers Stakes, has won twice in a row at 1 ⅛ miles and might very well be the favorite for the Wood on Saturday.
Brooklyn Strong (50-1) finally returns to the track for trainer Danny Velazquez. This will be his first start since winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes four months ago and follows a long layoff due to illness and inclement weather. He’s the son of 2014 Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong.
Don’t forget about Weyburn (75-1), who defeated Highly Motivated in the Gotham Stakes four weeks ago at 46-1 odds. Jimmy Jerkens trains the son of Pioneerof the Nile. Crowded Trade (150-1) was the runner-up to Weyburn in the Gotham, which was just his second career start. He’s been training well at Belmont Park and gets another shot from trainer Chad Brown in this one.
Nicky the Vest (110-1) — the first stakes winner to be sired by Runhappy — was expected to run in the Wood after two wins to begin his career but was removed from consideration following a subpar workout over the weekend.
Arkansas Derby lookahead
Concert Tour will clearly be the one to beat in the final 100-point race next weekend. He’ll be joined by fellow Bob Baffert trainee Hozier (25-1), a son of Pioneerof the Nile (American Pharoah’s sire) and the runner-up to Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes last month.
Caddo River (85-1) will look for redemption in the Arkansas Derby after trying and failing to run with Concert Tour in the Rebel, where he faded to fifth as the 6-5 favorite. Caddo River went 4 furlongs in :48 flat — “a fantastic move,” trainer Brad Cox said — at Oaklawn Park last weekend.
Other Derby contenders
▪ Helium (55-1) — trained by Mark Casse — won the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start on dirt March 6 following a nearly five-month layoff and is training straight to the Kentucky Derby in what will be another long layoff. The son of Ironicus worked 4 furlongs in :49.25 on Saturday.
▪ Midnight Bourbon (24-1) might belong in the top-10 rankings following a consistent series of preps at Fair Grounds, including a win in the Lecomte Stakes and runner-up finish to Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby two weeks ago. The son of Tiznow — like the next three Louisiana Derby runners on this list — will train straight to the Kentucky Derby on May 1.
▪ Mandaloun (30-1) finished a disappointing sixth as the 6-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, but trainer Brad Cox is still pointing him toward Churchill Downs. Cox said this week that he still couldn’t explain Mandaloun’s no-show at Fair Grounds — “no excuse really at all” — but noted that the son of Into Mischief is already at Churchill Downs and “looks amazing.”
▪ Proxy (55-1) was fourth in the Louisiana Derby at 3-1 odds after runner-up finishes in each of the previous Fair Grounds preps. The son of Tapit has 34 Derby points, which should be enough to get him in the Derby starting gate, and it looks like he’ll be there May 1 for trainer Michael Stidham.
▪ O Besos (125-1) — a son of 2013 Derby winner Orb — was an eye-catching third in the Louisiana Derby, but he has just 25 Kentucky Derby points and won’t race again between now and then. If that’s enough to get in the gate — and it might be — he’ll be an intriguing long shot May 1.
