Kentucky Derby Watch: A new No. 1 in the top-10 rankings after an eventful weekend
What a difference a week makes.
This time last week, Life Is Good was coming off arguably the best performance of the Kentucky Derby prep season so far and a heavy early favorite for the May 1 race.
With trainer Bob Baffert’s announcement Saturday that Life Is Good would be removed from Derby consideration due to an ankle injury, however, the landscape looks quite a bit different.
Add to that the results of the Louisiana Derby late Saturday — when 6-5 favorite Mandaloun finished a disappointing sixth — and it makes for quite the shakeup in our Kentucky Derby rankings.
So, with Life Is Good, Mandaloun and Proxy — the fourth-place finisher in the Louisiana Derby — booted from the top-10 list, there’s room for some new names and intriguing storylines.
And this list could be due for even more change following this weekend’s slate that features three 100-point Derby prep races, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
On to the top 10 (with latest odds provided to the Herald-Leader by the William Hill sportsbook):
1. Concert Tour
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Odds: 6-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Street Sense — Purse Strings by Tapit
With Life Is Good off the Derby trail, his stablemate moves into the top spot. The next contender on this list has the better credentials thus far, but Concert Tour just had a certain look about him in that impressive Rebel Stakes victory two weeks ago. He appears to be the type that can manage a favorable spot early in the massive Derby field and versatile enough to where he can run on or just off the lead in the early going and be fine at the end. (The absence of front-running Life Is Good might also benefit his approach May 1). The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense is doing everything right in the lead-up to this year’s race.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10.
2. Essential Quality
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Odds: 4-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Regular jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Tapit — Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality
Think of this as more of a “1A” ranking. Essential Quality, the reigning champ of this 3-year-old class, has done nothing wrong as he and Louisville native Brad Cox point toward Derby Day. In fact, he seems to be getting better. The gray colt went 5 furlongs in 59 seconds flat at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the fastest of 25 workouts at the distance and one that Cox described as “a ‘whoa’ kind of move” afterward. Next up is a return to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend at Keeneland, the site of Essential Quality’s victories in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. He’ll bring some welcome star power to town as he looks to become the first horse to win the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold did it 30 years ago.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
3. Greatest Honour
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Odds: 8-1
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Regular jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Tapit — Tiffany’s Honour by Street Cry
Another 3-year-old who has done everything asked of him this year, Greatest Honour gets his biggest test yet in the Florida Derby on Saturday. He won the other two big Derby preps at Gulfstream Park rather convincingly, but there are still some questions over just how much talent he faced in those victories. The Florida Derby should provide stiffer competition for the latest star out of the barn of Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, a Lexington native. Greatest Honour also likes to come from further back in the field — counter to the style of most of the recent Kentucky Derby winners — though he should have some pace to run at May 1. Before that, Saturday’s test awaits.
What’s next? The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
4. Hot Rod Charlie
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Oxbow — Indian Miss by Indian Charlie
The biggest mover since last week’s rankings, Hot Rod Charlie went straight to the front in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday and never relinquished the lead against what was supposed to be a talented field. The other three top contenders going into that race — Mandaloun, Proxy and Midnight Bourbon — had been beating up on each other this winter at Fair Grounds, but it was California- based Hot Rod Charlie who came in and got the victory. He had finished a close third to Medina Spirit in his only other race of 2021, and his Louisiana Derby run earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure (tied with Medina Spirit for the best of this 3-year-old bunch now that Life Is Good has been sidelined). Doug O’Neill has already won the Kentucky Derby twice — with Nyquist and I’ll Have Another — and he’ll train Hot Rod Charlie up to May 1 with no additional races, meaning a relatively long six-week layoff.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
5. Medina Spirit
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Odds: 16-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Protonico — Mongolian Changa by Brilliant Speed
Life Is Good’s removal from the Derby trail might benefit stablemate Medina Spirit the most. After two head-to-head battles — both won by Life Is Good — it just didn’t look like Medina Spirit was going to have what it took to turn the tables moving forward. Now, we could get a sense of how he stacks up to the rest of the 3-year-old class. He was the only horse to finish within 10 lengths of Life Is Good in the San Felipe Stakes. He was still beaten 8 lengths, but he never gave up, showing a grit that has become a hallmark of his 2021 campaign. He also earned a 99 Beyer trying to run Life Is Good down in their first meeting and defeated Hot Rod Charlie in an exciting stretch battle after that. Medina Spirit worked Monday for the first time since the San Felipe Stakes, and Baffert said he ran that race with a slightly entrapped epiglottis, which negatively affects breathing and has since been corrected through surgery.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on April 3.
6. Prevalence
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Odds: 14-1
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Regular jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro — Enrichment by Ghostzapper
The first five in these rankings have some impressive results on their resume. After that — and starting with Prevalence — it’s promise that dominates the list. This Godolphin homebred remains a big unknown, the “it horse” of sorts on the Derby trail. He broke his maiden in spectacular fashion in his first career race Jan. 23 before a brief illness scrambled Derby plans that were already off to a late start. He returned to the track with another easy victory in an allowance race two weeks ago, but he’s now in a position with zero Derby qualifying points and just one chance to get into the race. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins big in one of these 100-point races, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he doesn’t live up to the hype and falls out of the Derby picture altogether.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial (both April 3) and Arkansas Derby (April 10) are all still on the table.
7. Dream Shake
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 60-1
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Twirling Candy — Even Song by Street Cry
Speaking of promise, Dream Shake appears to have plenty. He didn’t make his career debut until Feb. 7, and he put up a 96 Beyer in that one. Next, he finished in third in the San Felipe Stakes, beaten a little more than 10 lengths by Life Is Good, who just looked to be a different breed that day. Dream Shake went 5 furlongs in a blazing :58.20 — the fastest of 75 workouts at that distance Saturday at Santa Anita — and could be sitting on a big one for trainer Peter Eurton, who finished sixth in the Derby with Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance With Fate in 2014 and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court last year. (It’s worth noting that Dream Shake’s jockey, Joel Rosario, also rides Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie).
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby or Blue Grass Stakes (both on April 3).
8. Highly Motivated
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Odds: 25-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Regular jockey: Javier Castellano
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Strong Incentive by Warrior’s Reward
Giving Highly Motivated a pass on his disappointing third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes a few weeks ago, his first race in four months. He didn’t get settled early in that one and finally started running up to his reputation once he got comfortable in the stretch. Chad Brown — the Eclipse Award winner for outstanding trainer every year from 2016 to 2019 — has him working well in New York, and he comes to Lexington next weekend for a final test of his Derby mettle: a showdown with reigning champion Essential Quality at a track that they both won impressively on during the Breeders’ Cup Friday card last fall.
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
9. Collaborate
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Regular jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Quiet Temper by Quiet American
Collaborate looked green in his career debut — a fifth-place finish in a maiden race over a sloppy track Feb. 6 — before posting a 12 ½-length victory three weeks later. A couple of weeks after that, he returned to the Gulfstream Park track and put in a bullet workout — 4 furlongs in 47 seconds, fastest of 52 works at the distance that day — to create even more buzz heading into his make-or-break introduction to the Kentucky Derby trail this weekend. The son of Into Mischief — sire of last year’s Derby winner, Authentic — was sold for $600,000 as a yearling in 2019.
What’s next? The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
10. Rock Your World
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 50-1
Trainer: John Sadler
Regular jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Candy Ride — Charm the Maker by Empire Maker
Rock Your World has yet to race on dirt, but he’s worked well enough on the surface for trainer John Sadler that he’ll get a shot at Kentucky Derby contention. He won his career debut Jan. 1 and then came back in late February to take the 1-mile Pasadena Stakes on the Santa Anita turf, prompting Sadler to look toward next weekend’s Santa Anita Derby as a possibility for the colt, who sold for $650,000 at Keeneland as a yearling in 2019. Rock Your World was bred in Kentucky by Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Deborah, and he’s ridden by Umberto Rispoli, a 32-year-old Italian jockey who moved to the United States in 2019 and has yet to ride in the Kentucky Derby. There’s plenty of intrigue surrounding this up-and-coming colt.
What’s next? The Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park on April 3.
Other Kentucky Derby notables
▪ Midnight Bourbon (24-1) just missed the top-10 rankings and deserves some respect following a strong runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is 0-for-21 with Kentucky Derby starters. The son of Tiznow is the only 3-year-old on the Derby trail with two Beyers of more than 95 (both were 96s) and he’ll train up from here to the May 1 race.
▪ O Besos (100-1) is looking like an awfully intriguing long shot for Derby Day after his driving finish to grab the third spot in the Louisiana Derby. He’s trained by Greg Foley, his speed figures have improved over every one of his five career starts, and he’s the son of 2013 Derby winner Orb.
▪ Proxy (45-1) didn’t have the easiest of trips in the Louisiana Derby, finishing fourth for trainer Michael Stidham. The son of Tapit had finished second in the previous two preps at Fair Grounds. He seems to possess plenty of talent, but he hasn’t managed to put it all together for a major victory yet.
▪ Mandaloun (30-1) falls from the top-10 rankings as the biggest disappointment from the Louisiana Derby, where he looked like he should’ve been in a great spot to make a run yet finished fifth. Trainer Brad Cox had no explanation for the flat performance, and — even though Mandaloun has enough Derby points — he said he would consider entering him in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 10 for one more start before the Kentucky Derby.
▪ Spielberg (35-1) has been a model of inconsistency for trainer Bob Baffert thus far in his young career, but his second-place finish to Essential Quality in the Southwest Stakes put him back in the Derby conversation. He’s the 4-1 second choice on the morning line for Saturday’s Florida Derby.
▪ Known Agenda (28-1) is trained by Todd Pletcher, whose name is uncharacteristically absent from the list of top Derby contenders. The son of Curlin is coming off an 11-length allowance win at Gulfstream Park, where he added blinkers for the first time, and will be the 5-1 third choice for the Florida Derby (a race Pletcher has won five times).
▪ Soup and Sandwich (85-1) is one more to keep an eye on for the Florida Derby on Saturday. Mark Casse trains the son of Into Mischief, and the colt is 2-for-2 against lesser competition, just making his debut Jan. 28. He’s 20-1 on the Florida Derby morning line.
▪ Panadol (no odds yet) looks to be the slight favorite for Saturday’s UAE Derby, one of two other 100-point Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend. The son of Flatter is undefeated for trainer Salem bin Ghadayer. The UAE Derby has produced 15 Kentucky Derby starters, though none have finished better than fifth.
▪ Hush of a Storm (no odds yet) is a possible favorite for the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park — the other 100-point race Saturday — after winning the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes there last month. The son of Creative Cause is trained by William Morey and has a 3-for-3 record on Turfway’s synthetic surface after finishing eighth on the Churchill Downs dirt in his first start last November.
▪ Risk Taking (24-1) is pointed to the Wood Memorial for trainer Chad Brown after his win in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct last month. The son of Medaglia d’Oro could be the favorite in that race and already has a lot of support for the Kentucky Derby, where he projects as one who should be fine with the longer distance.
▪ Weyburn (85-1) won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at 46-1 odds for trainer Jimmy Jerkens and will also be a top choice in his return to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial next weekend. He’s the son of Pioneerof the Nile, who also sired American Pharoah.
▪ Crowded Trade (125-1) was caught at the wire of the Gotham by Weyburn, finishing second in that race in just his second career start. Trainer Chad Brown will also point the son of More Than Ready toward the Wood Memorial.
▪ Brooklyn Strong (50-1) looked like he might be the class of the New York contingent following a victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December, but he’s been off the Derby trail due to illness and inclement weather. He worked 5 furlongs in :59.71 on Saturday and is expected to make his return in the Wood Memorial. His father (Wicked Strong) won that race in 2014 before finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby.
▪ Nicky the Vest (125-1) will be a buzz horse at the Wood Memorial for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who watched the son of fan favorite Runhappy put in a strong workout at Belmont Park on Sunday. Nicky the Vest has won both of his previous starts, and both of those races were at Aqueduct.
▪ Hozier (25-1) finished second to stablemate Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes and is expected to return to Oaklawn Park for next month’s Arkansas Derby. The son of Pioneerof the Nile is trained by Bob Baffert
▪ Caddo River (85-1) had nothing for Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes — fading to finish fifth as the 6-5 favorite — but he’s still on track to meet him again in the Arkansas Derby. Brad Cox trains the son of Hard Spun.
▪ Keepmeinmind (50-1) will also return for the Arkansas Derby after finishing sixth in the Rebel Stakes, though his workout schedule was upended by inclement weather, and it was his first start in nearly four months. Robertino Diodoro trains Keepmeinmind, who has Victory Gallop as a damsire and won the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs last fall.
▪ Hidden Stash (28-1) was the runner-up in the Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Victoria Oliver this month and could be headed to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend. The son of Constitution has an allowance win at Churchill Downs and is still getting some buzz on the Derby trail.
▪ Rombauer (55-1) won the El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface in California last month, and trainer Michael McCarthy has not yet confirmed his next start. The son of Twirling Candy went 5 furlongs in :59.20 at Santa Anita last weekend (fourth fastest of 75 workouts at the distance on the same day that Dream Shake turned in the bullet work).
▪ Helium (45-1) won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6, and Mark Casse is planning to train the son of Ironicus up to the Kentucky Derby, which would make for an eight-week layoff. He’s never lost in three career starts, though his best Beyer is an 84 and his first two victories came on the synthetic surface at Woodbine Park in Ontario.
