An early favorite for the Kentucky Derby is likely to emerge Saturday in New Orleans
The next level of Kentucky Derby prep races begins Saturday at Fair Grounds, and this year’s edition of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is looking like an epic showdown of top contenders.
The Risen Star will be the first race on the 2022 Derby trail that allocates 50 qualifying points to the winner, basically making it a win-and-you’re-in event. This race was won last year by Mandaloun, who crossed the finish line second in the 2021 Derby and will be declared the winner of that race if Medina Spirit’s disqualification is upheld by Kentucky racing officials.
It appears likely that the winner of this year’s Risen Star will cement himself as an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby on May 7.
The 10-horse field has already been drawn, and it’s absolutely loaded with promising 3-year-olds.
The race will include five horses that made the Herald-Leader’s initial list of top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders, which was posted two weeks ago. All five of those horses — Epicenter, Pappacap, Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy and Zandon — were also among the top 13 betting choices in last week’s Derby Future Wager pool.
The slight morning-line favorite for the Risen Star Stakes is Smile Happy, who is steeped in Kentucky connections.
The son of sprint champion Runhappy was bred in Kentucky and is owned by Louisville-based Lucky Seven Stable, trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek, and ridden by Louisville resident Corey Lanerie, who has won 19 meet titles at Churchill Downs.
Smile Happy broke his maiden at Keeneland in October and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club — the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs — the following month. This will be his first race since that victory and mark his 3-year-old debut.
The horses that ran second and third to Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club — Classic Causeway and White Abarrio — have come back over the past two weeks to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Holy Bull, respectively, two major early Derby preps in Florida. Call Me Midnight, who was seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club, bounced back last month to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, another Derby prep on the winter calendar.
Smile Happy was 8-1 in the most recent Derby Future Wager, making him the favorite among the individual betting options. He’s 14-1 for the 2022 Derby on the most recent futures sheet from Caesar’s sportsbook. Only Corniche (8-1) and Messier (10-1) — two colts trained by Bob Baffert, who is fighting a ban by Churchill Downs for the 2022 Derby — have shorter odds on the Caesar’s list.
Epicenter and Pappacap ran second and third to Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte, and they were 24-1 and 31-1, respectively, in the most recent Derby Future Wager. (Call Me Midnight is skipping this race and expected to train up to the Louisiana Derby on March 26).
Zandon (21-1 in last week’s Derby Future Wager) returns to the track after a tough-luck loss to Mo Donegal, who beat him by a nose in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in New York on Dec. 4 following a stretch battle that included some bumping, and, eventually, a failed appeal by the connections of Zandon to overturn the official race finish.
Slow Down Andy (23-1 in the Future Wager) is trained by Doug O’Neill, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner. Slow Down Andy is the son of Derby champ Nyquist and defeated Messier — now a possible 2022 Derby favorite — in the Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 11. This will be his first race outside of California.
The field also includes two undefeated colts trained by Louisville native Brad Cox, who trained Mandaloun and Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality last year. Cox also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Knicks Go and earned the Eclipse Award for top trainer for the second year in a row.
Cox has no top contenders for this year’s Derby … yet. His two Risen Star entries — Bodock and Tawny Port — are both unbeaten in two career starts and will be making their stakes debuts Saturday.
The field also includes Trafalgar (60-1 on the Caesar’s sportsbook Derby odds sheet); the Todd Pletcher-trained Pioneer of Medina; and Russian Tank, a major long shot with just one win in eight career starts.
The Risen Star Stakes is set to go off at 6:58 p.m. and will be shown live on TVG.
There will be six additional Derby prep races with 50 points going to the winner over the next few weeks, but whoever crosses the finish line first — and beats this talented field — in New Orleans on Saturday will surely establish himself as a top threat for the roses on May 7.
Risen Star Stakes
What: Kentucky Derby prep points race (50-20-10-5)
When: 6:58 p.m. EST Saturday
Where: Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans
TV: TVG
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $400,000 (Grade 2)
Risen Star Stakes field with odds:
1. Pappacap (4-1)
2. Russian Tank (50-1)
3. Trafalgar (10-1)
4. Tawny Port (12-1)
5. Epicenter (4-1)
6. Pioneer of Medina (10-1)
7. Zandon (9-2)
8. Smile Happy (7-2)
9. Bodock (10-1)
10. Slow Down Andy (9-2)
