More Kentucky Derby prep races coming this weekend. Will any new stars emerge?
Last weekend delivered quite the shocker on the Kentucky Derby trail, with Un Ojo — a one-eyed gelding with just one victory in five previous starts — winning the Rebel Stakes at 75-1 odds and earning enough qualifying points to lock down a spot in the May 7 Run for the Roses.
What Derby developments will this weekend bring?
There will be three major prep races across the country Saturday, all of them delivering 50 points to the winner — enough to get into the Derby field — with 20 points going to second place, 10 points to third and five points to fourth.
The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park looks like the headliner, though the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct will also be worthy of attention. The John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on Saturday will deliver 10 Derby points to its winner.
Fountain of Youth Stakes
Mo Donegal was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Fountain of Youth in Florida, but it was announced Wednesday that he would scratch from the race. The colt had a low-grade fever this week, trainer Todd Pletcher was already displeased with the No. 12 post position, and his connections didn’t think the short stretch at Gulfstream Park for this race was a good match for the top-tier Kentucky Derby contender. Mo Donegal will instead make his next start in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial next month, and that will be his final prep (and last chance at points) before the Derby.
That defection leaves Simplification as the shortest choice on the morning line at 7-2. The son of Not This Time finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out. White Abarrio, the winner of the Holy Bull, is skipping the Fountain of Youth and will train up to the Florida Derby.
One to watch Saturday will be Emmanuel (9-2), who will be making his stakes debut for Pletcher and was an impressive winner in a Tampa Bay allowance race in late January.
Other top contenders include impressive allowance winner In Due Time (6-1), the Bill Mott-trained High Oak (8-1) and Galt (12-1), and top Derby contender Rattle N Roll (12-1), who is trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek and hasn’t raced since a victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in early October.
The Fountain of Youth Stakes is set for a 5:42 p.m. post time.
San Felipe Stakes
Forbidden Kingdom is clearly the one to watch in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park, his first start since a star-making victory in the San Vicente Stakes five weeks ago. There are questions about Forbidden Kingdom’s abilities at longer distances, and this 1 1/16-mile race will be his first start beyond 7 furlongs.
The son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah is trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, who hasn’t had a Kentucky Derby starter in 18 years. Mandella had the Derby favorite in 2019 with Omaha Beach, who had to scratch the week of the race due to a medical condition.
Also in the seven-horse field Saturday is Doppelganger, who was the odds-on favorite before finishing fourth behind Forbidden Kingdom in the San Vicente Stakes. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who is still fighting his ban from this year’s Kentucky Derby.
The San Felipe Stakes is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Saturday.
Gotham Stakes
Star trainers Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Steve Asmussen and Mark Casse all have entries in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon, but none of the 3-year-olds in the 10-horse field are looking like top-tier Kentucky Derby contenders.
Perhaps that will change once the race is run.
Among the most interesting on the entry list are Rockefeller and Morello.
Rockefeller, trained by Baffert, won the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Belmont last November and finished second to stablemate Newgrange in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 1. (Newgrange, however, returned to finish sixth as the heavy favorite in the Rebel Stakes last weekend).
Morello, trained by Asmussen, is undefeated in two starts and won the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes by 5 lengths at Aqueduct last month.
Pletcher will have Dean’s List, who is making his stakes debut after going 2-for-2 to start his career.
This field clearly isn’t as star-studded — based on the results so far — as the Fountain of Youth or the San Felipe, but it will award 50 points to the winner, and that’ll be enough to make the Kentucky Derby field. Post time is set for 5:27 p.m. Saturday.
Tiz the Bomb returns
Tiz the Bomb was the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall, and his connections decided to give him a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail this year.
The results of his first dirt race since last summer did not go as hoped — a seventh-place finish, beaten more than 20 lengths at 9-2 odds in the Holy Bull Stakes in January. Trainer Kenny McPeek has since decided to train up Tiz the Bomb — a Grade 2 winner on the Keeneland turf last fall — to some prestigious turf races in England later this year.
Before that trip, he’ll race in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on Saturday. That race, which gives 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner, drew a full 14-horse field that includes two entries from trainer Brad Cox, whose Mandaloun is now recognized as the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner.
The Battaglia is scheduled for 8:14 p.m. Saturday.
Messier back on track
Bob Baffert is still banned from the Kentucky Derby for the next two years, and his trainees on the 2022 trail have not been able to accrue qualifying points due to that suspension. The Hall of Fame trainer is still fighting that ban, however, and he has some possible contenders if he’s able to somehow make it to the May 7 race.
The biggest name is Corniche, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and was announced as the champion 2-year-old last month. But Corniche still hasn’t had a posted workout since that Breeders’ Cup victory. His future race plans remain undetermined.
For the purposes of this year’s Kentucky Derby, it looks like Baffert’s top contender would be Messier, who smoked a short field in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month, earning a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, by far the highest of any 3-year-old colt in 2022 so far.
Future plans around Messier were also murky until recently, but the son of Empire Maker returned to the worktab Monday, breezing 4 furlongs in :48.60 at Santa Anita Park.
It sounds like that Messier’s next start could come in the Santa Anita Derby on April 9. If Baffert’s legal challenges are unsuccessful, Messier’s ownership group — which includes several different racing entities — could still switch him to a different trainer before the Santa Anita Derby, and a top-two finish there would be enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby.
