Can a filly win the 2022 Kentucky Derby? The journey to Louisville starts this weekend.
The Arkansas Derby won’t have the most loaded field on the Kentucky Derby prep schedule this spring. But it might just feature the most interesting overall contender.
Star filly Secret Oath — until now one of the favorites on the 2022 Kentucky Oaks trail — will get her first shot against the boys Saturday at Oaklawn Park. It might not be her last.
A good showing in the Arkansas Derby could be enough to convince her connections to enter her in the Kentucky Derby on May 7. And if that happens, she’d be the first filly to run for the roses in 12 years.
The decision to enter Secret Oath in Saturday’s Grade 1 race wasn’t taken lightly. But, with more than enough qualifying points in hand to make the Oaks starting gate, her connections are taking the chance. The timing of the race, elevated purse — $1.25 million — and, perhaps most importantly, the ability to run on her home track against a field that, on paper, doesn’t look that strong, were all contributing factors in the decision.
To the latter point, Secret Oath has been made the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the field of nine contenders. The idea of running her against the boys really gained steam five weeks ago, when Secret Oath won the Honeybee Stakes by 7 ½ lengths. Later on that day’s card was the Rebel Stakes, often a key Kentucky Derby prep at that stage in the calendar. Un Ojo — a 75-1 shot — managed to win the Rebel, earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.
Secret Oath — a daughter of the late, great Arrogate — got a 92 Beyer for her Honeybee victory on the same track that day.
The filly has some history on her side. She’s trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas, now 86 years old. Lukas also trained Winning Colors, the 1988 Derby champ and the last filly to win the race. Before that, he trained Althea, a filly who won the 1984 Arkansas Derby.
Althea set the pace in that year’s Kentucky Derby before fading to 19th in the 20-horse field, so Lukas has been on the winning and losing side of the “filly in the Derby” experiment.
Only three fillies have ever won the Derby: Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980, and Winning Colors in 1988. Only 10 have even attempted the race since 1960, and four of those have been trained by Lukas. The last filly to run in the Derby was Devil May Care, who finished 10th for trainer Todd Pletcher in 2010.
Just because Secret Oath will be in the Arkansas Derby starting gate doesn’t mean the Kentucky Derby is in her future, even with a stellar showing Saturday.
“Wayne and I talked about it before the Honeybee,” owner/breeder Robert Mitchell said this month. “We wanted to see what her performance looked like in the Honeybee and we wanted to see what the Rebel looked like, and then we wanted to see kind of how she did in her first workout after the Honeybee. We feel like we ought to give her a chance to run against the boys and see how that goes. That’s kind of how we thought about it.”
Secret Oath turned in an impressive workout right after that victory in the Honeybee, then came back a week later with a bullet work, 5 furlongs in :59.40, fastest of 34 runs at the distance that morning at Oaklawn Park.
Regular jockey Luis Contreras was out of town that day, so Lukas gave the workout mount to Geovanni Franco.
“The filly — that’s a running machine, man,” Franco said afterward.
Contreras will be back aboard Saturday at Oaklawn, where Secret Oath has won three consecutive races, a streak that began Dec. 31 — exactly two months after she broke her maiden at Churchill Downs.
Barring the unforeseen, she’ll return to Churchill a few weeks from now. Whether she races May 6 or May 7 will be the question.
Even when confirming the Arkansas Derby start a couple of weeks ago, Lukas said the Kentucky Derby was not the ultimate objective.
“I’ve got the Oaks, anyhow,” he said. “That’s where I’m going. We have no plan to run in the Derby now. That’s not chiseled in stone, either, but that’s the way the Mitchells feel. They don’t want to run in a 20-horse field. They feel like the Oaks is every bit as prestigious.”
Lukas has opened the door to the Derby a little wider in recent days, telling turf writer Bill Finley this week that Mitchell has mentioned the possibility of May 7 two or three times since they decided to enter the Arkansas Derby.
“I think it’s a 50-50 proposition,” Lukas said. “That Derby Fever runs deep. I’ll do whatever they want.”
First, she’ll need to pass Saturday’s test.
The second choice on the morning line for the Arkansas Derby is Doppelganger (3-1), who was one of four Kentucky Derby contenders moved out of embattled trainer Bob Baffert’s barn last week. He is now trained by Tim Yakteen and was second to top Derby contender Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe Stakes last time out.
Other top contenders include promising allowance winner We the People (7-2), Rebel Stakes winner Un Ojo (6-1), Barber Road (8-1) and the Brad Cox-trained Cyberknife (8-1).
Post time is set for 7:35 p.m. EDT Saturday.
Florida Derby
The deepest Kentucky Derby prep on this weekend’s schedule will be the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where Simplification has been pegged as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in an 11-horse field.
Simplification, trained by Antonio Sano, won the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his last start and has emerged as a major Kentucky Derby contender.
White Abarrio (3-1) won the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park earlier in the Derby prep calendar, and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. decided to skip the Fountain of Youth and train straight up to the Florida Derby instead.
Classic Causeway (7-2) has dominated the Tampa Bay Downs prep circuit so far, most recently winning the Tampa Bay Derby. Charge It (7-2) is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher and will be coming off an impressive allowance victory at Gulfstream Park, though he has only two career starts.
Post time is set for 6:40 p.m. Saturday, and coverage will begin on CNBC at 6 p.m.
Other Derby notes
The Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby are both maximum points races for the Kentucky Derby, with 100 qualifying points going to the winner, 40 to second, 20 to third and 10 to fourth. Typically, 40 points has been more than enough to get into the Derby starting gate in recent years.
The other 100-point race this weekend will be in Kentucky — the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. That one will be run over a synthetic surface.
Tiz the Bomb — trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek — is the biggest name in the 12-horse field for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, though McPeek has recently said that the 3-year-old colt is no longer being seriously considered for a Kentucky Derby start. The son of Hit It A Bomb raced exclusively on the turf at the end of last year and was seventh on the dirt in the Holy Bull Stakes in January. He then won a race over Turfway’s synthetic surface March 5.
McPeek has been planning to take Tiz the Bomb to England for a couple of major turf races there later this spring.
No other entries in the Jeff Ruby Steaks field have been viewed as major Kentucky Derby contenders, though the winner and second-place finisher will accumulate enough points to make the race.
Blackadder, another horse previously trained by Bob Baffert, will be one to watch Saturday. The son of Quality Road won the El Camino Real Derby — also run on a synthetic surface — last time out. Blackadder is now trained by Rodolphe Brisset.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks is scheduled for 6:23 p.m.
▪ Churchill Downs announced Wednesday that seven 3-year-olds have been added to the list of Triple Crown nominees after their connections paid a $6,000 late nomination fee that was due earlier in the week.
Two notables in the group are Summer Is Tomorrow, who was runner-up in last weekend’s UAE Derby; and Bye Bye Bobby, who finished second in the Sunland Derby on Sunday. Summer Is Tomorrow should have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, while Bye Bye Bobby might need some defections between now and the first week in May to get into the starting gate.
▪ The final major Saturday of Derby preps will be next weekend, when the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park, and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct will all be run as 100-point races.
Top contenders in those races will include Smile Happy (Blue Grass), Forbidden Kingdom and Messier (Santa Anita) and Mo Donegal (Wood Memorial).
This story was originally published March 31, 2022 at 7:56 AM.
