Sweltering heat? Rain? What does the forecast have in store for 150th Kentucky Derby

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is fast approaching, and as of Wednesday, chances for rain Friday and Saturday are increasing.

That’s why forecasters like National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Neudorff are encouraging Derby revelers to keep a close eye on the forecast this week.

“If you’re planning on coming to the Derby, keep it constant, be vigilant,” Neudorff told the Herald-Leader in a phone interview Monday.

Here’s a look at what the forecast has in store for this weekend, but know conditions are likely to change. Neudorff said by Wednesday, forecasters should have a clearer picture of what the weather will look like for this weekend’s races.

“Right now, we’re looking at the forecast through a telescope,” Neudorff, who works for the NWS Louisville office, said of predictions Monday.

What does the forecast look like for Lexington this weekend?

Forecasts from the NWS in Louisville and The Weather Channel are calling for possible showers and thunderstorms to move into the area Friday. As of Thursday morning, the chance of rain Friday is 70%, with diminishing chances moving into Saturday, according to the National Weather Service forecast. By comparison, The Weather Channel puts the chance at roughly 80%.

For Saturday, the National Weather Service predicts a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, while The Weather Channel puts that probability at roughly 50%, as of Thursday morning.

The NWS’ area forecast discussion said widespread showers will be present across the Ohio Valley region Friday morning and continue through the evening.

Confidence for Saturday’s forecast remains low, as a Friday night front will greatly influence the rain chances, according to the forecast. The front is projected to lay out somewhere across Kentucky, but forecasters do not expect rain or storms to last long in any given location.

In a Thursday forecast, meteorologist Chris Bailey noted temperatures could reach into the upper 80s, with some areas climbing into the 90s.

“A few showers and storms will start to rumble into the region from the west and southwest later Thursday night before kicking into a higher gear on Oaks Day. While this isn’t constant rain, periods of showers and thunderstorms look to hang tough through, at least, part of Kentucky Derby Saturday,” Bailey wrote.

As for temperatures in Lexington Friday and Saturday, the NWS is calling for temperature highs in the upper 70s with lows around 60.

What does the forecast look like for Louisville this weekend?

For Louisville Friday, the NWS projects a 80% of precipitation, with a possible thunderstorm after 9 a.m., the agency’s seven-day forecast said Thursday morning.

Still, on Derby Day, the chance of rain was much lower at about 50% with mostly sunny conditions and a temperature high close to 80 degrees. The NWS said there is chance of thunderstorms before 8 a.m. and after 11 a.m.

The temperature Saturday could drop as low as 63 degrees, the NWS said.

By comparison, The Weather Channel’s 10-day forecast for Louisville called for approximately a half-inch of rain for Friday, putting the chances of rain at 90%. Thunderstorms are possible in the evening.

Saturday, there are chances for a stray storm, but it’s projected to be mostly cloudy, with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s, according to The Weather Channel.

What the Kentucky Derby’s historical weather tells us

The NWS in Louisville also keeps a record of weather conditions for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs going back to 1875, and it may offer another clue for what to expect Saturday.

For the last four years, the agency recorded a mix of cloudy and sunny conditions, but no precipitation in the afternoon or early evening. In 2019, it recorded only 0.34 inches. Overall, since 2014, Kentucky Derbies have tended to be drier.

Here’s a look at some weather records for the Kentucky Derby set over its nearly 150-year run:

• Coldest temperature: 36 degrees on May 4, 1940, and May 4, 1957. (The temperatures for the 1957 running were accompanied by frigid northern winds blowing between 20 to 25 mph.)

• Hottest temperature: 94 degrees on May 2, 1959.

• Wettest Derby on record: 3.15 inches of rain on May 5, 2018.

Do you have a question about the Kentucky Derby for our service journalism team? Send us an email at ask@herald-leader.com or submit it with the Know Your Kentucky form below.

This story was originally published April 29, 2024 at 3:49 PM.

Aaron Mudd

Lexington Herald-Leader

Aaron Mudd was a service journalism reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader, Centre Daily Times and Belleville News-Democrat. He was based at the Herald-Leader in Lexington, and left the paper in February 2026. Support my work with a digital subscription