Sorry, Duke. Sorry, Kentucky. Final Four proves experience still matters.
Duke was ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press preseason college basketball poll, yet the Blue Devils failed to make the Final Four, losing to Kansas in an overtime thriller of a Midwest Region finals on Sunday.
Kentucky was ranked No. 5 in that same AP preseason poll, yet the Wildcats fell short of the Elite Eight, losing to No. 9 seed Kansas State by three points in the South Region semifinals last Thursday.
Turns out the two basketball blue bloods had more in common this season than high expectations and Hall of Fame coaches. Both got caught relying heavily on freshmen — Kentucky started five in its final game; Duke started four — in a season that rewarded experience.
Need proof? Check out the Final Four of Loyola Chicago, Michigan, Villanova and Kansas. All four are led by upperclassmen with just a handful of freshmen sprinkled among them.
If you go by the top six scorers at each school, here’s the class breakdown: Nine juniors, seven seniors, four sophomores and just four freshmen.
Loyola Chicago boasts five players averaging in double figures. The top four are comprised of two juniors and two seniors. Clayton Custer, the Ramblers’ leading scorer at 13.2 points per game, is a junior.
Same goes for Michigan, which boasts two juniors and two seniors among its top four. Moritz Wagner, who leads the Wolverines at 14.3 points per game, and UK transfer Charles Matthews, second at 13.0, are both juniors.
Kansas’ top two scorers are seniors Devonte Graham at 17.2 points per game and Svi Mykhailiuk at 14.7. Malik Newman, who scored 31 points in the regional finals win over Duke, is a third-year sophomore who started his career at Mississippi State before transferring to Kansas.
Villanova’s top two scorers are juniors Jalen Brunson at 19.2 and Mikal Bridges at 17.8. Both were part of Villanova’s 2016 title team. Brunson averaged 24 minutes per game that season; Bridges 20.3.
Of the teams in San Antonio, Villanova’s Omari Spellman is the only freshman among his team’s top four scorers. And the 6-foot-9 Spellman reshirted last season.
In other words, for all the attention given to one-and-dones, experience still counts, especially in the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky’s 2012 and Duke’s 2015 national title teams, both led by freshmen, are the recent exceptions, not the rule.
Look at last year’s champs. North Carolina was led by juniors Justin Jackson and Joel Berry, along with seniors Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.
Same for Villanova in 2016. While Brunson and Bridges were contributors, they were not the stars. Junior guard Josh Hart led ’Nova in scoring, followed by junior Kris Jenkins and seniors Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu.
The Connecticut team that defeated a freshman-dominated Kentucky for the 2014 title boasted veteran guards in seniors Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright. The Louisville team that captured the 2013 title — since vacated — was paced by junior guard Russ Smith and senior guard Peyton Siva. Luke Hancock, the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player, was a fourth-year junior who transferred to Louisville from George Mason.
While Kentucky’s 2012 title team started three freshmen in Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague, it also boasted veterans in Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller. All three played in the Final Four the season before.
And while Duke’s 2015 title team featured the freshman trio of Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, senior guard Quinn Cook was the Blue Devils’ second-leading scorer. And junior forward Amile Jefferson averaged 21.3 minutes per game.
Here’s another similarity: Since 2015, when Duke won the title and Kentucky went 38-1, the two schools have shared an identical NCAA Tournament history, though in different sequence. UK has lost in the second round, Elite Eight and Sweet 16. Duke has lost in the Sweet 16, second round and Elite Eight.
Now here they are again in a similar spot, waiting to see just how many of their talented freshmen continue on to the NBA, while watching more experienced teams compete in the Final Four.
John Clay: 859-231-3226, @johnclayiv
Top scorers on Final Four teams
Loyola Chicago | ||
Player | Class | Avg |
Clayton Custer | Jr. | 13.2 |
Donte Ingram | Sr. | 11.3 |
Marques Townes | Jr. | 11.2 |
Aundre Jackson | Sr. | 11.0 |
Cameron Krutwig | Fr. | 10.3 |
Ben Richardson | Sr. | 7.0 |
Michigan | ||
Player | Class | Avg |
Mortiz Wagner | Jr. | 14.3 |
Charles Matthews | Jr. | 13.0 |
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman | Sr. | 12.8 |
Duncan Robinson | Sr. | 9.5 |
Zavier Simpson | So. | 7.5 |
Jordan Poole | Fr . | 6.0 |
Kansas | ||
Player | Class | Avg |
Devonte Graham | Sr. | 17.2 |
Svi Mykhailiuk | Sr. | 14.7 |
Malik Newman | So. | 14.0 |
Udoka Azubuike | So. | 13.1 |
Lagerald Vick | Jr. | 12.2 |
Marcus Garrett | Fr. | 4.2 |
Villanova | ||
Player | Class | Avg |
Jalen Brunson | Jr. | 19.2 |
Mikal Bridges | Jr. | 17.8 |
Donte DiVincenzo | So. | 12.9 |
Omari Spellman | Fr. | 10.8 |
Eric Paschall | Jr. | 10.3 |
Phil Booth | Jr. | 10.3 |
Final Four
Saturday at San Antonio
6:09 p.m.: Loyola Chicago vs. Michigan (TBS)
8:49 p.m.: Villanova vs. Kansas (TBS)
This story was originally published March 27, 2018 at 5:43 PM with the headline "Sorry, Duke. Sorry, Kentucky. Final Four proves experience still matters.."