In Kentucky basketball rivalry with Louisville, these numbers are cruel for the Cards
Job one for Chris Mack as Louisville men’s basketball coach is not allowing the scandal-fatigued U of L program to slip into an Indiana-style decline from relevance.
Though we do not know what, if any, NCAA fallout there will be from Louisville’s linkage (due to a prior coaching staff) to the FBI investigation of corruption in college hoops, Mack so far is succeeding beyond reasonable expectations in the task of keeping Cardinals hoops nationally significant.
Yet when Mack brings No. 3 Louisville (11-1) to Rupp Arena on Saturday to face No. 19 Kentucky (8-3) in our state’s annual hoops Armageddon, the ex-Xavier coach will take his second whack at meeting another big-picture challenge facing the U of L program:
Digging out of a deep competitive rut against UK.
Since the modern rivalry between the Cats and the Cards commenced with Louisville’s overtime win in the 1983 NCAA Tournament, Kentucky holds a commanding 27-13 lead head-to-head vs. U of L.
UK has won 13 of its past 17 games against Louisville.
The Cardinals have not won against the Wildcats in Rupp Arena since Jan. 5, 2008, and have not beaten a non-Billy Gillispie-coached Kentucky team in Lexington since Dec. 27, 2003.
When U of L fell to UK 71-58 at the KFC Yum Center last year in Mack’s first shot at the Cats, it was a case of “same as it ever was.”
Last season’s victory made John Calipari 10-2 as Kentucky head man against Louisville.
Under Cal, UK is 5-0 vs. U of L in Rupp; 3-2 against the Cards at the Yum Center; and 2-0 in NCAA Tournament games played at neutral sites.
The Kentucky-Louisville series has become so one-sided no one mentions Cats-Cards any more as a rival to Duke-North Carolina for the mantle of greatest rivalry in men’s college hoops.
This year, the computers say Mack and U of L should have a more than viable chance at beating UK.
In the Pomeroy Ratings, Louisville is third in the country, Kentucky 16th.
The Sagarin Ratings have U of L 11th, UK 27th.
According to the NCAA’s NET Rankings, the Cardinals are the nation’s third-best team, while the Wildcats are No. 72.
The old-fashioned RPI, still available at realtimerpi.com, has Louisville 15th and Kentucky 127th.
In Jordan Nwora (21.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Louisville will have the most-accomplished player who will be on the court Saturday in Rupp Arena.
Yet, as UK football fans discover with maddening frequency in Wildcats games against Tennessee, when one team gains an enduring upper hand on another, the psychology of the competition on both sides seems to work against overthrowing the prevailing trend.
In the Calipari era, two other factors have consistently favored Kentucky against Louisville.
1.) Superior UK length and athleticism have oft smothered smaller U of L teams.
When Kentucky beat Louisville in the 2012 Final Four, the Cats’ starting five went 6-foot-7, 6-9, 6-10, 6-4, 6-2; the Cards countered with 6-4, 6-6, 6-11, 6-2, 6-0.
When UK rallied past U of L in the 2014 NCAA Tournament round of 16, Kentucky starters went 6-6, 6-9, 7-foot, 6-6, 6-6; Louisville was 6-6, 6-8, 6-9, 6-foot, 5-10.
Conversely, when Louisville scored a rare win in the series over Kentucky in 2016-17, the Cardinals went 6-7, 6-9, 6-10, 6-3, 6-2 in their starting lineup, while UK went 6-3, 6-9, 6-9, 6-4, 6-3.
This year, Louisville will likely go 6-7, 6-5, 6-10, 6-foot, 6-2; UK could go 6-6, 6-10, 6-11, 6-3, 6-3.
Kentucky’s customary advantage in defensive length may explain why two key, but undersized, current Cardinals’ starters have never made a field goal against the Cats.
Hustling 6-5 power forward Dwayne Sutton is 0-of-5 on field-goal tries in two prior games vs. UK; 6-foot outside shooting specialist Ryan McMahon is 0-of-6, 0-of-4 on three-pointers, in his two previous appearances against the Cats.
2.) Kentucky freshmen typically take a star turn vs. Louisville.
From DeMarcus Cousins (18 points, 18 rebounds in 2009-10) through Brandon Knight (25 points, four assists in 2010-11) through Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (24 points, 19 rebounds in 2011-12) through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (24 points, five rebounds, four assists in 2017-18) through Tyler Herro (24 points, five rebounds last year), UK frosh have consistently dominated Louisville.
This year, is Tyrese Maxey sitting on another dynamic showing like the one the Kentucky freshman guard produced (26 points, five rebounds) in UK’s season-opening upset of then-No. 1 Michigan State?
For the 2019-20 season, UK needs to win more Saturday than U of L. After Louisville, there will be few — any? — chances left on the Cats’ regular-season schedule to get a move-the-needle victory.
However, in the context of the rivalry, it’s not even close. Chris Mack and Louisville have an acute need to break through against the Big Blue.
