Why Kentucky football has a shot at pulling an epic upset in 2020
What if I told you there is at least some reason to think Mark Stoops and the 2020 Kentucky Wildcats will enter games against SEC powers Georgia and Alabama plus long-term nemesis Tennessee with an important factor stacked in the Cats’ favor?
For my money, an underrated aspect of how football games turn out is how each team’s schedule “sets up” entering the contest.
In 2018, the fact that Kentucky had played Georgia the week before to decide the SEC East Division championship was a significant factor, in my view, in the Wildcats’ dispiriting upset loss at Tennessee the week following.
Last year, what had been UK’s five-game winning streak vs. South Carolina ended, in part, because the Wildcats faced the Gamecocks on the back end of two straight SEC road games.
When and where you play a team in the context of your schedule; who you have played in the week prior to the game; and who you play the week following the contest can all serve as important factors impacting how a team fares in any given game.
Which brings us to Kentucky’s all-SEC schedule in 2020.
With the disclaimer that “the coronavirus football season” is likely to feature unprecedented variables from week-to-week based on who is and isn’t available to play, three games appear to “set up” especially favorably for the Cats.
Tennessee
When No. 23 UK travels to Neyland Stadium Oct. 17 to face the No. 15 Volunteers, the Wildcats will be coming off back-to-back home games against Mississippi and Mississippi State.
Conversely, Tennessee faces No. 4 Georgia the week before playing Kentucky. In the game after the Wildcats, UT will face No. 2 Alabama.
The Vols have beaten the Cats in 33 of their most recent 35 meetings, so factoring in whatever whammy the Big Orange holds on the Big Blue is always part of analyzing UK-UT contests.
Still, if Kentucky is ever going to record another football victory in Knoxville — the last Wildcats win in Neyland Stadium was 1984 — this year’s game seems to offer an unusually positive setup for the Cats.
Georgia
When the No. 4 Bulldogs travel to Kroger Field on Oct. 24, they will be one week removed from what is expected to be the SEC’s 2020 regular-season Armageddon — playing No. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
After an off week, Georgia’s first contest following their visit to Lexington is versus archrival Florida in Jacksonville. This year’s meeting between the Dawgs and the No. 5 Gators could easily be for the SEC East crown.
For Kirby Smart and crew, the trip to Lexington looms as the epitome of a “trap game.”
Alabama
In the two weeks before it plays at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 21, Kentucky will have had an off week and a home game with Vanderbilt.
Conversely, Alabama will play defending national champion and No. 6 LSU in Baton Rouge on Nov. 14. The Crimson Tide’s immediate game after UK will be the annual intrastate grudge-fest against No. 8 Auburn on Nov. 28.
This appears the most favorable “setup” for Kentucky of any contest on the Wildcats’ 2020 schedule.
Alas, that might not matter. Alabama is 36-3 against the SEC East since Nick Saban was hired in 2007. The Tide has not lost at home to a foe from the East since 2007 (Georgia).
UK has never beaten the Tide in the state of Alabama. In 40 meetings, the Cats have only vanquished Bama twice (1922 and 1997 in Lexington).
Keep in mind, “the game setup factor” can cut two ways.
The context of at least two contests Kentucky should be favored to win does not look especially positive for the Wildcats.
Missouri
When UK visits Columbia on Halloween to seek its sixth straight win over the Tigers, Kentucky will enter the game off back-to-back matchups with Tennessee and Georgia.
The Cats will be playing their sixth SEC game in six weeks.
Mizzou will be coming off a road trip to Florida and will also be playing its sixth league contest in as many weeks — but at least new coach Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers will do so at home.
South Carolina
Kentucky will seek its sixth victory over South Carolina in the past seven seasons when Will Muschamp brings the Gamecocks to Kroger Field for the regular-season finale Dec. 5.
You have to wonder how much petrol the Cats will have in their emotional tanks coming off back-to-back road games at Alabama and at Florida.
On the other hand, South Carolina will enter off a home game vs. No. 4 Georgia and will be playing for a fifth consecutive week. So it’s not a perfect setup for the Gamecocks, either.
For UK backers, the hope in 2020 is the Wildcats are good enough to take advantage of at least one of their favorable “setups”— and strong enough to win against the unfavorable ones.
