Suspend your disbelief. Let’s look for reasons why UK could make an SEC tourney run.
Let’s be blunt. The most likely outcome for Kentucky’s make-or-break trek to the 2021 SEC Tournament is that the Wildcats (9-15, 8-9 SEC) will have a short stay this week in Nashville.
Over the course of a season, when a team keeps losing games in the same manner, it reveals a structural defect that limits its ceiling.
In the current hoops season, John Calipari’s Wildcats have consistently struggled and, more often than not, failed to close out tight games. Kentucky is 4-7 in 2020-21 in games decided by five points or less.
That’s the primary reason UK must win four games in a row — something the Wildcats have not been able to do all season — to claim the SEC tourney and advance to the NCAA Tournament.
Yet even when reality bites, the beauty of March Madness is that sometimes magic happens and teams can elevate their play above what their track records suggest is likely.
Five times in the modern history (since 1979) of the SEC Tournament, a team has successfully traveled the same must-win-four-games-in-four-days route Kentucky faces to the championship.
If 1984-85 Auburn (entered SEC tourney with 11 losses), 1999-2000 Arkansas (14), 2007-08 Georgia (15), 2008-09 Mississippi State (12) and 2018-19 Auburn (nine) could win the SEC Tournament, who is to say 2020-21 Kentucky (15) doesn’t at least stand a chance?
The No. 8 seed Wildcats will begin their redemption quest Thursday at noon (EST) against No. 9 seed Mississippi State (14-13, 8-10 SEC) in Bridgestone Arena. Because of the coronavirus, attendance will be capped at some 3,400 fans.
“That first (SEC tourney) game is going to be ridiculously hard, but good,” Calipari said Saturday after UK blitzed South Carolina 92-64 in its regular-season finale but before Mississippi State had been locked in as Kentucky’s opening opponent. “But it will be hard for that other team, too. I am not thinking they are looking forward to seeing my team coming off this kind of game.”
If you are looking for reasons for hope that the Cats can unleash a stirring run and flip the narrative on what has heretofore been one of the worst seasons in school history, start here:
The number one seed in the 2021 SEC Tournament is Alabama.
Kentucky led the Crimson Tide on Jan. 26 in Tuscaloosa by one point with 3:31 left in the game.
The number two seed in the 2021 SEC Tournament is Arkansas.
Kentucky led the Razorbacks on Feb. 9 in Rupp Arena by one point with 4.3 seconds left in the game.
The number three seed in the 2021 SEC Tournament is LSU.
Kentucky beat the Tigers 82-69 in Rupp Arena on Jan. 29.
The number four seed in the 2021 SEC Tournament is Tennessee.
Kentucky beat the Volunteers 70-55 in Knoxville on Feb. 20.
The number five seed in the 2021 SEC Tournament is Florida.
Kentucky beat the Gators 76-58 in Gainesville on Jan. 9.
Of the top five teams in the Southeastern Conference this season, UK has beaten three and was in position in the final minutes (Alabama) or seconds (Arkansas) to defeat the other two before ultimately succumbing.
So even factoring in its troubles closing out games, Kentucky has been competitive with the best teams in the league.
Ken Pomeroy, the basketball numbers guru, compiles a “luck” measurement within the men’s college hoops rankings that bear his name.
In the Pomeroy Ratings, the “luck” metric is quantified as the difference between a team’s actual record versus what that squad’s offensive and defensive efficiency rankings suggest the team’s overall mark should be.
Through Sunday’s games, Kentucky has been the fifth unluckiest team (Murray State has been the second-most unlucky, Vanderbilt the fourth) in men’s college basketball in 2020-21.
If you believe chance tends to even out, who is to say UK is not due some fortunate bounces this week in Nashville.
The numbers to monitor as the Cats seek to work their way through the SEC Tournament are clear.
In its nine victories so far, Kentucky has averaged 12.7 turnovers a game. However, in its 15 defeats UK has given up the ball an average of 15.3 times.
Over the nine games it has won, UK has made 41.1 percent of its three-point tries (74 of 180). Conversely, in its 15 losses, the Wildcats have made 28 percent of their trey attempts (75 of 269).
The Cats are 9-3 so far this season when they score at least 70 points. UK is 0-12 when held under 70 points.
Ball security, three-point accuracy and a game pace brisk enough to boost scores into the 70s are the keys to Kentucky having a chance to defy expectations and extend its season by winning the SEC Tournament.
“You know, it’s (winning) one game, four times,” Calipari says of the task in front of Kentucky. “So it’s one game — and then you know.”
