How Kentucky and Iowa match up — with a game prediction
How the women’s NCAA Tournament River Walk Region No. 4 seed Kentucky Wildcats (18-8) and No. 5 seed Iowa Hawkeyes (19-9) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky star Rhyne Howard (20.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.4 steals) showed her all-around game in UK’s 71-63 NCAA Tournament round-of-64 victory over Idaho State on Sunday. The 6-foot-2 junior from Cleveland, Tenn., had 14 points, nine rebounds, five assists and four steals to help UK rally from an early 10-point deficit. It will be interesting to see how Howard, now a two-time SEC Player of the Year and AP First Team All-American, approaches what will be seen as an individual showdown with Iowa freshman star Caitlin Clark.
▪ Iowa’s Kate Martin (6.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 steals) had her first career double-double (19 points, 11 assists) in a 96-78 win over Penn State on Feb. 18. A 6-foot, redshirt sophomore from Edwardsville, Ill., Martin had 13 points, four rebounds and four assists in the Hawkeyes’ 87-72 round-of-64 victory over Central Michigan on Sunday.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s KeKe McKinney (6.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 32.1% three-point shooting) had three points, five rebounds and two assists in the victory over Idaho State. In three career NCAA Tournament games, the 6-1 junior from Knoxville, Tenn., has shot 1-of-11 with eight rebounds.
▪ Iowa’s McKenna Warnock (11.9 ppg, 8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 53% FGs, 44% treys) is on a tournament-time hot streak. The 6-1 sophomore from Marshall, Wis., has had double-doubles in three straight games. She went for 17 points and 11 rebounds in a Big Ten Tournament semifinals win over Michigan State, followed by 10 and 10 in a loss to Maryland in the league tourney finals. Against Central Michigan in the NCAA tourney opener, Warnock had 13 and 10. She now has seven double-doubles this season.
Advantage: Iowa.
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Tatyana Wyatt (3.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 50% treys) had five points and five boards in the win over Idaho State. The 6-2 senior from Columbus, Ga., has averaged 8 points and 5 rebounds in three career NCAA Tournament games.
▪ Iowa’s Monika Czinano (19.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 68% FGs) is a skilled low-post scorer of the type that often gives Kentucky fits. The 6-3 junior from Watertown, Minn., entered the NCAA tourney as the nation’s leader in field-goal percentage. In the opening victory over Central Michigan, Czinano hit 10 of 18 shots and had 23 points and six rebounds. In Iowa’s run to the 2019 NCAA tourney round of eight, Czinano played a total of 14 minutes in four games and did not score.
Advantage: Iowa.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky’s Chasity Patterson (12.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 steals) had 14 points, three rebounds and two steals in the victory over Idaho State. The 5-5 senior from Houston has now scored in double figures in 19 of UK’s 25 games. Patterson entered NCAA tourney play seventh in the country in steals (she now has 74).
▪ Iowa’s Gabbie Marshall (9.3 ppg, 2 rpg, 2 apg, 1.9 steals) exploded for 27 points and made seven three-pointers in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals upset of then-No. 19 Rutgers. A 5-9 sophomore from Cincinnati, Marshall took only four shots, and made one for two points in the NCAA tourney victory over Central Michigan.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Against Idaho State, Kentucky’s Jazmine Massengill (4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.3 apg) made her seventh start since being inserted into the UK lineup late in the season. The 6-foot junior from Chattanooga, Tenn., had four points, six rebounds and five assists with four turnovers vs. the Bengals. As a starter, the transfer from Tennessee is averaging 6.9 ppg, 5 rpg and 4.9 apg.
▪ Iowa freshman star Caitlin Clark (26.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 7.2 apg, 41% treys) is the engine that makes the Hawkeyes’ high-octane offensive attack go. A homegrown, 6-foot product of West Des Moines, Clark entered the NCAA tourney leading the nation in scoring, total assists and made three-pointers. The Second Team AP All-American has scored more than 20 points in 25 games and more than 30 in 11. For good measure, Clark also produced a triple-double — 13 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists — against Western Illinois on Dec. 22. It will be interesting to see who Kyra Elzy assigns to guard Clark.
Advantage: Iowa.
Bench
▪ Kentucky got encouraging play off its bench in the win over Idaho State. ... Former Harlan County star Blair Green (6.1 ppg, 34.4% treys) hit four of eight shots, two of four three-pointers, for 10 points. ... Utah transfer Dre’una Edwards (9.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg) contributed nine points and seven rebounds, though she made only three of 10 shots and turned the ball over four times. ... Auburn transfer Robyn Benton (6.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg) chipped in four points ... Center Olivia Owens (4.3 ppg 2.8 rpg), who did not play in the SEC Tournament, had six points and three rebounds in five minutes. The 6-4 Maryland transfer’s size could be important for UK in matching up with Iowa’s Monika Czinano.
▪ Iowa relies heavily on its starters — all five average over 29 minutes of playing time a game. Of the Hawkeyes’ reserves, junior guard Tomi Taiwo (3.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg), freshman center Sharon Goodman (3.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and sophomore guard Megan Meyer (2.6 ppg, 1 apg) are the main contributors.
Advantage: Kentucky.
History and intangibles
▪ Against Big Ten foe Iowa, Kentucky will be seeking its first NCAA Tournament win over a major-conference opponent since defeating the Big 12’s Oklahoma 79-58 in the 2016 round of 32.
The Wildcats have lost three straight NCAA tourney games vs. power-conference competition, falling to the Pac-12’s Washington (2016 round of 16), the Big Ten’s Ohio State (2017 round of 32) and the ACC’s North Carolina State (2019 round of 32).
▪ Iowa is 2-8 this season vs. teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game. The wins for Coach Lisa Bluder’s team came over then-No. 12 Michigan, 89-67, on Feb. 25 and vs. then-No. 19 Rutgers, 73-62, in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.
UK is 5-6 against AP Top 25 competition.
▪ Kentucky and Iowa played one common opponent during the regular season: Indiana. UK rallied from behind in the fourth quarter to defeat the Hoosiers, 72-68, on Dec. 6. Iowa lost twice to IU, falling 85-72 on Feb. 7 and 89-80 on March 3.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 85, Iowa 81.
This story was originally published March 22, 2021 at 2:50 PM.
