How No. 16 Kentucky and LSU match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats (5-0, 3-0 SEC) and LSU Tigers (3-2, 1-1 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis (989 passing yards, 61.9% completions, eight touchdowns, six interceptions) has had a rough go so far vs. SEC competition. In three Southeastern Conference games, the Penn State transfer has thrown for a combined 368 yards and only two TDs. In UK’s 20-13 upset of then-No. 10 Florida last week, the 6-foot-3, 232-pound product of Madison, Conn., made a huge play with his legs: He retrieved a bad snap and ran for 7 yards on a third-and-2 to extend what became the decisive Kentucky touchdown drive.
▪ LSU’s Max Johnson has an impressive football bloodline. The Athens, Ga., product is the son of former NFL QB Brad Johnson and the nephew of ex-Georgia and Miami Coach Mark Richt. A lefty, the 6-5, 219-pound Johnson has carried the LSU offense this season. Johnson has thrown for 1,468 yards and 16 touchdowns vs. only four picks.
Advantage: LSU.
Running backs
▪ UK’s Christopher Rodriguez (SEC-best 621 rushing yards, four TDs) missed by 1 yard against Florida what would have been his fourth 100-yards rushing game of the season. The 5-11, 224-pound junior from McDonough, Ga., had 99 yards on 19 carries. His 9-yard TD run in the fourth quarter ultimately supplied UK’s winning margin vs. the Gators. Change-of-pace back Kavosiey Smoke (159 yards, one TD this season) had his biggest impact last week as a blocker. The Wetumpka, Ala., product pancaked a Florida defensive back on an outside screen to spring Wan’Dale Robinson for UK’s first TD.
▪ LSU is 13th in the SEC in rushing, averaging a paltry 70.6 yards a game. Coach Ed Orgeron is still searching for answers among four backs: Tyrion Davis- Price (141 rushing yards), Corey Kiner (166 yards, two TDs), Armoni Goodwin (38 yards) and Josh Williams (35 yards). In LSU’s two SEC games to date — a 28-25 win at Mississippi State two weeks back and last Saturday’s 24-19 home loss to Auburn — the Tigers have failed to run for a combined 100 yards (63 at Mississippi State, 33 vs. Auburn).
Advantage: Kentucky.
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Wide receivers
▪ After transferring from Nebraska before this season, Kentucky junior slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (29 catches, 467 yards, three TDs) has established himself as one of the SEC’s most dynamic playmakers. However, there figures to be even more defensive focus on the ex-Western Hills High School star if, as rumored, UK senior Josh Ali (17 catches, 248 yards, one TD) is going to miss several weeks with an injury.
▪ LSU sophomore Kayshon Boutte (30 catches, 436 yards, nine TDs) is having a monster year. “He could hurt you at any given time,” Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops says. Junior Trey Palmer (12 catches, 142 yards, two TDs) is capable of big-play production. Junior Devonta Lee (five catches, 47 yards, one TD) is a player UK tried to recruit.
Advantage: LSU.
Tight ends
▪ Kentucky junior Brenden Bates (five catches, 32 yards, one TD) and super senior Justin Rigg (five catches, 51 yards) are each among four players tied for third on the UK team in catches. If Josh Ali is out, don’t be surprised if UK tries to get sophomore Izayah Cummings (three catches, 53 yards, one TD), a converted wideout, more involved in the passing game.
▪ LSU true freshman Jack Bech (19 catches, 252 yards, one TD), another converted wide receiver, has become a vital cog in the Tigers passing attack. Kole Taylor (five catches, 63 yards, one TD) caught a touchdown in the win at Mississippi State.
Advantage: LSU.
Offensive linemen
▪ Kentucky left tackle Dare Rosenthal was formerly the starter at the same position for LSU. He is downplaying going against his former team. “Every game is the same,” Rosenthal said Tuesday. All-America right tackle Darian Kinnard literally blocked three Florida defenders by himself on Christopher Rodriguez’s 9-yard TD run last week.
▪ The LSU offensive line has struggled. “We’re doing some different things this week we think can help us with the run,” LSU Coach Ed Orgeron said. LSU’s issues are not for lack of experience. The Tigers have a combined 109 career starts among their offensive linemen, led by right tackle Austin Deculus (38) and left guard Ed Ingram (36).
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive linemen
▪ UK lost senior nose guard Marquan McCall to injury in the first half of the win over Florida. Heralded class of 2020 recruits Josaih Hayes and Justin Rogers manned the spot capably in McCall’s absence vs. the Gators. End Josh Paschal (seven tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss) was stellar vs. Florida. “It’s been a long time since I saw anybody play better than Josh Paschal did,” Mark Stoops said.
▪ LSU lost super-senior end Andre Anthony (four TFL, 3.5 sacks, a 35-yard fumble-return TD) for the season due to injury in the season’s third game. Ends BJ Ojulari (4.5 sacks), Maason Smith (three sacks) and Ali Gaye (two sacks) have helped the Tigers to the SEC team lead with 20 QB sacks.
Advantage: LSU.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky MLB Jacquez Jones (nine tackles, one TFL, the game-clinching pass breakup) was named co-SEC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance vs. Florida. WLB DeAndre Square led the Cats with 13 tackles vs. the Gators. OLB/rush end J.J. Weaver set up the decisive UK TD with an interception vs. Florida.
▪ LSU’s Damone Clark is the SEC’s leading tackler (55). Micah Baskerville has 4.5 TFL. Clemson transfer Mike Jones (10 tackles) backs up Clark.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive backs
▪ UK strong safety Tyrell Ajian (eight tackles, two pass breakups) turned in a strong showing against Florida. “Ty really made some good plays in that game,” Mark Stoops said. LSU’s high-powered passing game and talented receiving corps figures to be a challenge for cornerbacks Carrington Valentine and Cedrick Dort.
▪ LSU is last in the SEC in pass defense, allowing a robust 248 yards a game. The Tigers will be without All-America cornerback Derek Stingley, who underwent a surgical procedure on a foot. Free safety Jay Ward (19 tackles) originally committed to Kentucky in recruiting before opting for LSU instead.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky’s Josh Paschal was named co-SEC Special Teams Player of the Week after his blocked field goal against Florida led to UK’s go-ahead touchdown. Place-kicker Matt Ruffolo (4-5 FGAs, long of 45) had a PAT blocked by the Gators. Punter Colin Goodfellow averaged 42.5 yards a kick vs. UF and pinned Florida inside its 20-yard line three times in six kicks.
▪ LSU place-kicker Cade York is a weapon: He is 8-of-8 on field goals with a long of 56. Avery Atkins handles punting (40.6 yards a kick) and kickoffs.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 23, LSU 21.
