How Kentucky and Louisville match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (8-3, 5-3 SEC) and the Louisville Cardinals (6-5, 4-4 ACC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis threw for a career-high 419 yards and four touchdowns in UK’s 56-16 demolition of 1-10 New Mexico State last week. On the debit side, the 6-foot-3, 232-pound Madison, Conn., product also threw his 12th interception and was part of a mishandled shotgun snap that turned into a scoop-and-score TD for NMSU. With 2,444 passing yards, Levis stands 45th in the FBS.

▪ Louisville’s Malik Cunningham is 36th in the FBS in passing yards (2,588) and 40th in rushing (933 yards). A Montgomery, Ala., product, Cunningham threw for 303 yards and five TDs and ran for 224 yards and two scores in U of L’s 62-22 rout of Duke last week. “A dynamic playmaker,” Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops said of Cunningham. In his career, Cunningham is 0-2 as a starter vs. UK and has completed 11 of 19 passes for 142 yards vs. the Cats.

Advantage: Louisville.

Running backs

▪ Kentucky star Christopher Rodriguez has had a stellar year — except for ball security. The 5-11, 224-pound product of McDonough, Ga., is 12th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,158). However, Rodriguez has fumbled six times in 2021, and Kentucky has lost three — including at the New Mexico State 2-yard line last week. The last time the Governor’s Cup rivalry was played, a 45-13 UK win in the 2019 regular-season finale, Rodriguez ran for 125 yards and a TD on nine carries.

▪ Louisville redshirt freshman Jalen Mitchell has established himself as the Cardinals’ lead back. A 5-10, 221-pound product of Rockledge, Fla., Mitchell is 90th in the FBS in rushing yards with 669 but averaging a so-so 4.6 yards a carry. Freshman Trevion Cooley (342 yards rushing, 5.2 yards a carry) has proven capable.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky junior slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (85 catches, 1,067 yards, seven TDs) and super-senior Josh Ali (37 catches, 53 yards, three TDs) combined to make UK football history vs. New Mexico State. Robinson, the former Western Hills High School star, had eight catches for 181 yards. Ali, a product of Hollywood, Fla., went for seven catches for 164 yards and two TDs. It was the first time Kentucky ever had two receivers both exceed 160 receiving yards in one game.

▪ Louisville slot receiver Jordan Watkins initially committed to UK in recruiting, but had a change of heart and signed with U of L. A 5-11, 194-pound product of Butler High School, Watkins leads the Cardinals with 533 receiving yards and is second on the team in receptions with 33. U of L’s big-play threat is redshirt sophomore Tyler Harrell. He has five TDs out of 14 receptions and boasts a 31.6 yards-a-catch average.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky super-senior Justin Rigg (17 catches, 174 yards, four TDs) caught two touchdown passes last week vs. New Mexico State. Sophomore Izayah Cummings (13 catches, 180 yards, three TDs), a Male High School alumnus, will be facing his hometown team this week. Junior Brenden Bates (10 catches, 64 yards, one TD) is also solid.

▪ A Ballard High School product who initially came to Louisville as a walk-on, H-back Marshon Ford is the Cardinals’ leader in receptions with 42 and is second on the team in receiving yards with 462. “If the ball is in Marshon’s vicinity, he’s going to catch it and he’s going to convert it into a first down most of the time,” U of L Coach Scott Satterfield said.

Advantage: Louisville.

Offensive linemen

▪ UK senior right tackle Darian Kinnard is the leader of a line that has been named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award — signifying the nation’s best offensive line — for the fourth time in six years. Former Belfry standout Austin Dotson has taken over at right guard since Eli Cox was lost to injury. “(Dotson is) really physical at times. And he’s good at certain blocking schemes,” Stoops said.

▪ Louisville center Cole Bentley, another former Belfry Pirates star, has made more career starts (42) than any player on the U of L roster. His backup, ex-Scott County star Bryan Hudson, turned down UK twice in recruiting. First, Hudson picked Virginia Tech out of high school, then chose U of L as a transfer. Louisville has given up 17 quarterback sacks this season, one fewer than Kentucky.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Defensive linemen

▪ A “lower-leg injury” sidelined Kentucky senior nose guard Marquan McCall for four games midseason. Whether the 6-3, 357-pound Detroit product can approximate the level of disruption he was causing early this year may be key to Saturday night’s outcome. “(The injury) was still bothering him a bit last week. You could tell by the way he was playing, with the way he was anchoring,” Stoops said. “Hopefully, he’ll feel better this week.”

▪ Louisville defensive end Yaya Diaby, a junior-college transfer from Georgia Military College, leads the Cardinals in QB hurries (seven) and also has three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Freshman end Ashton Gillotte has only 15 tackles this season, but six have been for loss, including three sacks.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Linebackers

▪ Two seasons ago in UK’s 45-13 win over U of L, DeAndre Square tied for the Wildcats team lead with seven tackles. This season, the 6-1, 222-pound senior WLB from Detroit is second on the UK team in tackles (73) and third in TFL (nine). Senior OLB/rush end Jordan Wright (20 tackles, three TFL, five pass breakups) continues to try to work his way back from an apparent ankle injury. “I hope he’ll be able to play,” Stoops said.

▪ Louisville OLB Yasir Abdullah (13.5 TFL, nine sacks, three pass breakups) has been a breakout player for the Cardinals in 2021. A 6-1, 235-pound junior from Miramar, Fla., Abdullah had four tackles vs. UK in 2019. A safety in high school at Lexington Catholic, Jack Fagot, at 6-foot, 200 pounds, has become an undersized OLB at U of L and has played effectively (58 tackles, 6.5 TFL, two sacks). Senior MLB C.J. Avery (team-high 78 tackles, six TFL, five pass breakups, three sacks) is having a big year.

Advantage: Even.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky senior cornerback Quandre Mosely had a 38-yard pick-six vs. New Mexico State, the second straight game in which UK has returned an interception for a touchdown. Mosely and fellow CBs Cedrick Dort and Carrington Valentine figure to be tested by a quality Louisville receiving corps with big-play capacity.

▪ Louisville lost star cornerback Kei’Trel Clark (three interceptions, nine pass breakups) to a season-ending, lower-leg injury vs. North Carolina State. Greedy Vance, a 5-10, 162-pound freshman, has stepped into the void and has seven pass breakups and a fumble recovery. Safeties Kenderick Duncan (70 tackles, 3.5 TFL) and Qwynnterrio Cole (63 tackles, four TFL) make plays near the line of scrimmage.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky senior punter Colin Goodfellow had a rough showing (33.5 yards average on two punts) vs. NMSU last week in what has otherwise been a strong season (46.4 yards a kick average, 11 of 30 punts down inside the 20). Place-kicker Matt Ruffolo is 7-of-10 on field goals, with a long of 45. He has also had two blocked.

▪ U of L punter Mark Vassett is averaging 42 yards a punt, and has stopped 17 of 43 kicks inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Place-kicker James Turner is 9-of-12 on field goal tries with a long of 46. Like UK, U of L has one punt-return touchdown this season.

Advantage: Even.

Prediction

Kentucky 35, Louisville 30.

This story was originally published November 25, 2021 at 7:30 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription