For UK backers, some things you should be watching ahead of Selection Sunday
Fast-break points from the L.A. Lakers’ stalled bandwagon:
21. The Kentucky Wildcats. UK’s taut 75-73 loss at Arkansas on Saturday left John Calipari’s Wildcats standing 23-6. Believe it or not, by one historical marker, it might be better for the Cats to take one more loss before the ball is tipped in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
20. Six-loss champions. Since the NCAA tourney began in 1939, there have only been four teams win it all with six defeats — Kentucky (23-6) in 1958; Michigan State (26-6) in 1979; Connecticut (33-6) in 2004; and Florida (33-6) in 2006.
19. Seven-loss champions. Conversely, there have been six NCAA champs with seven defeats — Marquette (25-7) in 1977; Louisville (32-7) in 1986; Michigan (30-7) in 1989; Duke (32-7) in 1991; Michigan State (32-7) in 2000; and North Carolina (33-7) in 2017.
18. NCAA title sweet spot. Teams that entered the NCAA Tournament with two losses have gone on to win the title the most often — 16 times, including Baylor (28-2) last season.
17. UK’s sweet spot. Five of Kentucky’s eight national championships teams — 1949 (32-2); 1951 (32-2); 1978 (30-2); 1996 (34-2); and 2012 (38-2) — had two defeats.
16. A team from Kentucky. Every team currently ranked in the top 25 of the men’s NCAA NET Rankings has more than two losses but one — No. 24 Murray State (25-2).
15. If you are wondering. Thirteen NCAA champions have had three losses; 13 national champs have had four losses; there have been seven undefeated NCAA Tournament winners; there have been seven champs with eight losses or more; and there have been six one-loss champions.
14. Kenpom “dual qualifiers.” One metrics-based NCAA Tournament prediction theory holds that the national champion will come from among the teams that are ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted-offensive efficiency and adjusted-defensive efficiency in the ratings produced by basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy.
13. Magnificent seven. Through games of Sunday, there are seven such teams — Gonzaga (No. 2 adjusted-offensive efficiency; No. 6 adjusted-defensive efficiency); Kentucky (No. 3, No. 20); Baylor (No. 8, No. 13); Arizona (No. 10, No. 12); Houston (No. 11, No. 15); Auburn (No. 8, No. 18); and UCLA (No. 15, No. 10).
12. A UK concern? On Feb. 8, the last time I reviewed kenpom.com “dual qualifiers,” UK stood No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 11 defensively. So the Wildcats’ defensive metrics have been subsequently dropping.
11. Kentucky proud. With UK and, presumably, Murray State looking safe for NCAA Tournament at-large bids regardless of how they perform in league tournaments, it means the commonwealth will extend its streak of having at least one team in every men’s NCAA Tournament that has been played after 1963.
10. A season being saved? In his current projections, ESPN.com women’s college basketball “bracketologist” Charlie Creme has Kyra Elzy’s surging Wildcats (15-11, 8-8 SEC, and winners of six straight) as the 62nd of the 68 teams in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
9. Remarkable turnaround. It’s quite the late-season push for a UK team that, at one point, lost eight of nine SEC games while its available roster shrank to as few as six players due to injuries and player suspensions.
8. A dynamic duo. Once Kentucky finally got its roster restored to full strength, the Wildcats have featured a lethal one-two punch.
7. Dre’una Edwards. During UK’s six-game win streak, the 6-foot-2 redshirt junior forward is averaging 23.2 points and nine rebounds.
6. Rhyne Howard. With Edwards’ late-season rise, Howard has not had to single-handedly carry the Cats. The 6-2 senior star is averaging 20.3 points and eight rebounds during the Wildcats’ win streak.
5. Jada Walker. The 5-7 true freshman guard, who had been a season bright spot even through the down points of UK’s year, has averaged 10.3 points and two assists during the run of six straight victories.
4. One more win? If ESPN.com’s Creme is right in where UK currently stands in the NCAA Tournament pecking order, then a win for No. 7-seed Kentucky over No. 10 Mississippi State in Thursday’s SEC tourney second round in Nashville could lock the Wildcats into the Big Dance.
3. A motivated foe. The second of Kentucky’s six straight wins came when the Cats went on a 24-2 run to end the game and rally from down 15 in the fourth quarter to beat Mississippi State 81-74.
2. Turned both team’s seasons. Since UK’s stirring rally past MSU, the Wildcats have not lost and the Bulldogs have not won. MSU carries a five-game losing skid into the postseason.
1. A desperate foe. According to ESPN.com’s Creme, MSU (15-13, 6-10 SEC) will enter the Southeastern Conference Tournament as the fourth team out of the NCAA tourney. So to extend its late-year roll into the postseason, Kentucky’s first challenge is to overcome a foe that will have every conceivable reason to be hyper-motivated to beat the Cats.
